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What we know about this company
A dated company review is availableBWX Technologies, Inc.
No important change since the 2026-08-30 company check.
TickerYou is watching this company, but we are not currently recommending it. An earlier full review was positive 8/10, but that view is historical.
$150.12
last session
Price only · no current Idea
Quarterly results in 58 days · Nov 9 · Estimated date
This came from an earlier review. It is useful background, not a current Idea.
BWX Technologies is the only company that builds nuclear reactors for U.S. Navy submarines and aircraft carriers. It also makes big metal parts for commercial nuclear power plants and is helping bring smaller next-generation reactors to market. Last quarter it made $89 million in profit on $902 million in sales — 18% more sales than a year ago. Orders it has already won but not yet built total $8.4 billion, up 40% from a year ago, so years of work are already lined up. It just agreed to sell its medical business for up to $800 million so it can focus fully on nuclear. What has to go right: the boom in new nuclear plants — driven by demand for round-the-clock power for AI data centers — actually shows up on schedule. What could go wrong: nuclear projects have a long history of running late and over budget, and a big chunk of BWXT's money comes from the U.S. defense budget, so a Washington funding fight would hurt.
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TickerYou is checking this company, but no active investment Idea is open.
That review was positive with 8/10 research strength. It is history, not a current Idea.
Read the newest company check below. New facts can update the research, but watching a company does not turn it into a recommendation.
No important change since the 2026-08-30 company check.
No material change since the 2026-08-30 sweep. BWXT remains a backlog-rich nuclear defense and commercial nuclear compounder; Q3 execution, the medical-business sale process, integration work, and Janus-related advanced-reactor milestones remain the key 3m and 1y watch points.
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Earlier company review · Record saved Aug 12, 2026 · check date unavailable. The original research wording and date checks stay available inside.
These events and risks came from an earlier company review. There is no current Idea.
An event can change what investors believe. A risk shows how our research could be wrong.
Watch for a company announcement or filing that confirms or moves this date.
Expected from BWXT Stock | BWX Technologies Price, Quote, News & Analysis - TipRanks.com · Sep 1, 2026
No important change since the 2026-08-30 company check.
A company check updates what we know. It does not by itself turn this company into a current opportunity.
2 older quarterly-results dates are hidden because a newer company check is shown above.
Computed by TickerYou from 1254 completed daily closing sessions supplied by Yahoo Finance, through Sep 10, 2026. The Sep 11, 2026 quote-session candle was excluded because a delayed feed cannot prove it was final. No company fundamentals enter this reading.
The price has been trending down across both the medium and longer term.
Price movement can help with timing and can warn when the market disagrees with our Idea. It does not tell us what the business is worth.
Watch whether the close can recover above the 50-session average at $168.88; the 200-session average at $192.46 is the slower reference.
Last closing price
$152.49
Sep 10, 2026
Average price over 20 trading days
$158.68
Close is 3.9% below this average
Average price over 50 trading days
$168.88
Close is 9.7% below this average
Average price over 200 trading days
$192.46
Close is 20.8% below this average
Recent price speed
40.7 · balanced
A 14-day speed reading; lower than 30 is low and higher than 70 is high
Is the trend speeding up?
Above signal
Shows whether the shorter trend is pulling ahead of or behind the longer one
The moving averages are simple averages over exactly 20, 50, and 200 daily trading sessions. RSI uses Wilder's 14-session smoothing; a flat series is neutral at 50. MACD uses 12- and 26-session exponential averages with a 9-session signal. A window is never shortened when history is missing. Every comparison uses the final dated daily close—not an intraday quote—so all figures share one observation boundary. A candle dated to an active delayed-quote session is excluded because it may still be changing. These are trend and momentum references, not a Buy/Sell score.
We keep the original wording so readers can check the record. Any figures below belong to that older review and are not current guidance.
Long-BWXT thesis is strengthening after Q2. Sole U.S. naval-reactor position, $8.4B backlog with 40% YoY growth, medical sale creating a cleaner pure-play, and DUECE optionality justify a strong-core position at 8/10 conviction with a base-case path to the low-$200s in twelve months.
Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported — the label its release used and its consensus estimate was quoted against — and by the month that quarter ended, taken from the filer's own XBRL period boundaries. A fiscal year need not follow the calendar, so Apple's Q2 runs January to March; naming the quarter end keeps that true in both calendars, and no quarter number is ever inferred from a date. Quarterly financials beside this card names the same quarter the same way. TickerYou takes the figures from the release and its filing; every word, sign and percentage is calculated by the app from those stored numbers. A post-release reaction appears only with the stored first-close measurement stamp; otherwise the card says the window is not established and computes no divergence. EPS here is on the basis consensus quotes — adjusted for most US names — so it can legitimately differ from the GAAP figure in Quarterly financials. Rows marked [backfilled] were confirmed from archived coverage after the fact — a lower evidence tier than live capture, and labelled so.
Q2 FY2026 · Jun 2026: EPS beat the stored consensus estimate, while revenue missed the stored consensus estimate. No post-release price reaction is asserted because its stamped measurement window is not established.
A surprise shows how the release differed from expectations, not whether the business is good or the thesis is right. The price reaction shows repricing, not its cause.
Watch whether the next comparable release repairs the miss, and keep the operating result separate from the market reaction.
Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · Reported Aug 3, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Revenue grew 18% year-over-year driven by accelerating commercial nuclear demand; company raised full-year non-GAAP EPS guidance to $4.70–$4.80 and revenue to ~$3.8B, announced sale of its medical business for up to $800M, and reported a record backlog of $8.4B, up 40% year-over-year.
Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · Reported May 4, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] BWXT raised full-year non-GAAP EPS guidance to $4.60–$4.75 and revenue outlook after Q1 revenue surged 26% year-over-year to $860M, driven by commercial nuclear momentum; backlog nearly doubled to $8.65B while EBITDA margin compressed to 17.2% from 19.0% on business mix shifts.
Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 · Reported Feb 23, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Strong quarter driven by Commercial Operations revenue nearly doubling (+95% YoY) from the Kinectrics acquisition plus field services and medical sales; backlog surged 50% to $7.3B on naval propulsion and commercial nuclear awards; 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $4.55–$4.70 came in well above the pre-release consensus of ~$4.30.
Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 · Reported Nov 3, 2025 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Revenue surged 29% YoY to $866M driven by the Kinectrics acquisition more than doubling Commercial Operations revenue, adjusted EBITDA rose 19% to $151M, record backlog hit $7.4B (+119% YoY), and BWXT raised its full-year guidance for revenue, non-GAAP EPS, and free cash flow.
Quarter ended Jun 30, 2025 · Reported Aug 4, 2025 · stock move after results · not shown
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported and the month that quarter ended, through the same resolver the Earnings card beside this one uses; where no release established a fiscal label, the quarter is named by its end alone rather than by a quarter number guessed from the date. EPS is GAAP diluted, as filed, so it can legitimately differ from the adjusted figure in the Earnings card (consensus is quoted adjusted). Y/Y compares the same fiscal quarter a year earlier; a comparison that cannot be made honestly is an em-dash that says why.
Q2 FY2026 · Jun 2026: Revenue grew 18.0% year over year; net income grew 13.6% year over year; and net profit margin was 9.9%, down 0.4 percentage points.
Comparing the same fiscal quarter a year earlier controls for seasonality. Revenue direction and margin direction together show whether sales are translating into profit, but one quarter is evidence—not a complete thesis.
Watch whether the next comparable quarter restores margin; revenue growth with falling margin can be lower-quality growth.
Complete SEC 13F filings only. These delayed reports show filed share amounts, not a manager’s full portfolio, intent, or a proven trade.
2 of 14 recent complete filings report ordinary shares. Compared with the prior report: 2 with fewer shares and 2 that no longer report it.
A large, repeated position can support a research story, but these filings arrive late and do not show an investor’s full portfolio or reason for owning the stock.
Look for the same investor to keep a meaningful position across several reports.
No numeric score or recommendation is made from these delayed filings. They are one piece of background evidence, not a buy or sell signal.
14 current complete filings of 16 tracked managers. 2 investors have only an older filing and are left out of this current view. Current holding dates span Mar 31, 2026 to Jun 30, 2026.
[backfilled] Kinectrics (closed May 20) contributed to a first-quarter-of-ownership revenue lift driving a $764M result well ahead of consensus; BWXT raised full-year non-GAAP EPS guidance to $3.65–$3.75 and EBITDA to $565M–$575M while booking over $1B of a $2.6B naval reactor pricing agreement that pushed backlog to a record $6.0B, up 70% YoY.
| (USD) | Q2 FY2026Quarter ended Jun 2026 | vs last year |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $901.63 M | |
| Profit after costs | $89.01 M | |
| Profit per share | 0.97 | |
| Profit margin | 9.9% |
| Quarter | Revenue | Y/Y | Net income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 · Mar 2026 | $860.22 M | $91.07 M | 10.6% | |
| Q4 FY2025 · Dec 2025 | $885.84 M | $92.99 M | 10.5% | |
| Q3 FY2025 · Sep 2025 | $866.29 M | $82.11 M | 9.5% | |
| Q2 FY2025 · Jun 2025 | $764.04 M | $78.39 M | 10.3% | |
| Mar 2025 | $682.26 M | $75.46 M | 11.1% | |
| Dec 2024 | $746.27 M | $71.02 M | 9.5% | |
| Sep 2024 | $671.96 M | $69.48 M | 10.3% | |
| Jun 2024 | $681.47 M | $72.97 M | 10.7% |
BWXT is 0.69% of ARK Investment Management's disclosed portfolio ($107.03 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in all 6 quarters we can see.
BWXT is 0.01% of Bridgewater Associates's disclosed portfolio ($3.20 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in 3 consecutive quarters.
Citadel Advisors (Ken Griffin) reports a CALL option ($34.10 M). The filing does not prove whether it is a bet or a hedge, so options never count as ordinary shares above.
Citadel Advisors (Ken Griffin) reports a PUT option ($23.96 M). The filing does not prove whether it is a bet or a hedge, so options never count as ordinary shares above.
2 lower reported, 2 absent. Reported amounts only; corporate actions are not normalized.
Reported by 2 of 14 managers with a current filing; at least 0.5% of disclosed 13F value for 1.
Largest reported position: ARK Investment Management (Cathie Wood) at 0.69% of disclosed 13F value ($107.03 M).
Across 6 quarters of stored filings: 6 newly or higher comparisons, 9 lower or absent, 0 unchanged, across 5 managers. Corporate actions are not normalized.
No numeric score is shown: filing comparisons are not adjusted for splits or other corporate actions, so reported changes cannot be treated as trades.
13Fs can arrive up to 45 days after quarter end. They omit short positions, cash, and securities outside the SEC's 13(f) list. Higher, lower, new, and absent describe filed share amounts, not proven purchases or sales; splits and other corporate actions are not normalized. This is context for a thesis, never a call by itself.
Append-only company checks, newest evidence first. Evidence dates come from frozen research cutoffs; older rows without a cutoff are labelled by publication time instead. Multiple checks are preserved, never silently merged into one conclusion.
No material change since the 2026-08-30 sweep. BWXT remains a backlog-rich nuclear defense and commercial nuclear compounder; Q3 execution, the medical-business sale process, integration work, and Janus-related advanced-reactor milestones remain the key 3m and 1y watch points.
2026-11-09 earnings reporting date was shown by a third-party company page and is treated as not company-confirmed.
Checked BWX Technologies' SEC-filed Form 8-K for the latest results-related current report in the sweep.
Changed versus the 2026-08-28 sweep: the Aug. 26 Janus selection is a material advanced-nuclear catalyst, but the 3m earnings setup still depends on Q3 execution and medical-sale progress; the 1y case is modestly strengthened by government-backed microreactor optionality.
2026-11-09 (expected, not company-confirmed) earnings reporting date was estimated by TipRanks from its BWX Technologies company page.
Filings and schedule checks do not alter the prior long-term read. BWXT remains a backlog-rich nuclear defense and commercial nuclear compounder; Q3 execution, integration work, and medical-sale closing remain the key 3m and 1y checkpoints.
2026-11-09 (expected, not company-confirmed) earnings reporting date was estimated by TipRanks from past reporting schedules.
Evidence checked Aug 26, 2026 · 2 recorded assessments
No material change since the prior sweep. BWXT remains a backlog-rich nuclear defense and commercial nuclear compounder; Q3 execution and medical-business-sale closing remain the key 3m and 1y checkpoints.
2026-11-09 (expected, not company-confirmed) earnings reporting date was estimated by TipRanks from past reporting schedules.
Evidence checked Aug 24, 2026 · 2 recorded assessments
No material change since the prior sweep. BWXT remains a backlog-rich nuclear defense and commercial nuclear compounder; the operations appointment is useful execution context but not a thesis-changing event.
Checked BWXT next earnings timing from a current earnings-calendar source
Published Aug 19, 2026 · 2 recorded assessments
High-visibility defense-nuclear compounder: record $7.3B backlog, $1.4B+ naval awards, raised FY2026 guide, and a portfolio-sharpening medical divestiture (up to $800M) that concentrates capital on naval/national-security and enrichment. Long-cycle, government-backed demand; primary risk is rich valuation, not the order book.
Published Aug 12, 2026 · 3 recorded assessments
BWXT is executing at a high level across every metric: 18% revenue growth, backlog +40%, raised guidance, and the medical divestiture sharpens the company to a pure-play nuclear franchise at a moment when both defense and commercial nuclear markets are structurally growing. The NNSA uranium centrifuge contract adds a technically differentiated and strategically critical growth vector that diversifies away from sole dependence on Navy propulsion. The primary risk is that valuation is no longer inexpensive — the stock is pricing in continued execution on enrichment program milestones that involve genuine regulatory and technical hurdles. 1-year thesis remains intact and the divestiture is a potential positive catalyst as the pure-play re-rating plays out.
Checked BWX Technologies' SEC-filed Form 8-K for the latest results-related current report in the filing sweep.
Checked BWX Technologies' SEC-filed Form 10-Q for the latest quarterly filing in the sweep.
Checked BWX Technologies' EDGAR amended quarterly filing detail page for the filing sweep.
Checked BWXT issuer news for the U.S. Army Janus Program selection before the cutoff.
Checked the government announcement of Janus vendors and sites as external confirmation of BWXT's selection.
Fundamental: the selection gives BWXT a named role in a government-led microreactor deployment program, starts phased Janus work at Fort Campbell, and adds long-dated advanced-reactor optionality beyond the existing naval and commercial nuclear base.
source ↗Checked BWX Technologies' SEC-filed Form 8-K for the latest results-related current report in the filing sweep.
Checked BWX Technologies' SEC-filed Form 10-Q for the latest quarterly filing in the sweep.
Checked BWX Technologies' EDGAR amended quarterly filing detail page for the filing sweep.
Checked BWX Technologies Form 8-K directly on EDGAR for the latest results filing.
Checked BWX Technologies amended quarterly filing detail directly on EDGAR for the filing sweep.
Checked BWXT investor news for the latest eligible company update before the cutoff.
This supports execution capacity around backlog and growth but is a management-structure update, not a new contract, guidance change, balance-sheet event, or competitive-position reset.
source ↗Since the 2026-08-24 sweep, no newer material BWXT item appeared on the checked company news page. The 3m and 1y thesis remains backlog-rich nuclear defense and commercial nuclear growth, with Q3 execution and medical-sale closing as the next key checkpoints.
2026-11-09 (expected, not company-confirmed) earnings reporting date was estimated by TipRanks from past reporting schedules.
Checked BWX Technologies Form 8-K directly on EDGAR for latest financial results filing.
Checked BWX Technologies amended quarterly filing detail directly on EDGAR for the filing sweep.
Checked BWXT company news page for recent five-day updates before the cutoff.
The operations-leadership appointment is relevant execution context for scaling, but it is not a contract, guidance change, balance-sheet event, or revenue-power change on its own.
source ↗Checked BWXT latest earnings 8-K directly on EDGAR
Checked BWXT amended quarterly filing index directly on EDGAR
Checked BWXT company news for last-five-day developments
The new operations role supports execution and scaling, but the release does not add contract value, guidance, backlog, or balance-sheet change, so it is not a standalone fundamental change.
source ↗No material change since Aug. 20. The operations SVP appointment is context, not a thesis change; BWXT remains a backlog-rich nuclear defense and commercial-nuclear compounder awaiting Q3 execution evidence.
Checked BWXT next earnings page for Q3 2026 timing
Checked BWXT latest earnings 8-K filed with the SEC
Checked BWXT amended quarterly filing index on EDGAR
Checked BWXT company news page for last-five-day updates
Operational leadership is relevant context, but this appointment alone does not change BWXT's backlog, contract base, margins or balance sheet.
source ↗Divests BWXT Medical/Kinectrics stable-isotopes unit (retaining a minority stake), sharpening focus on core naval/national-security and commercial nuclear; changes portfolio mix and adds up to ~$800M of capital, a balance-sheet event.
source ↗Backlog reached $7.3B (+50% YoY) on naval propulsion and special-materials awards; enrichment push positions BWXT for a potential U.S. buildout — expands the long-term earnings runway.
source ↗BWXT delivered a strong Q2 2026 (revenue +18%, H1 +21.8%, backlog +40% YoY) and raised full-year guidance to ~$3.8B. The Nordic Capital medical divestiture for up to $800M is strategically sound — it concentrates the business entirely in nuclear defense and commercial power, its highest-moat segments. NNSA enrichment programs and growing commercial nuclear demand provide a durable multi-year structural tailwind; Q3 results expected early November.
Divestiture removes ~$130M of 2026 medical revenue and refocuses BWXT exclusively on nuclear national security and commercial power — its highest-margin, long-cycle government-contract segments; BWXT retains a 20% equity stake and certain specialty manufacturing services.
source ↗Local news coverage of the August 3 announcement; no new details beyond the original press release.
source ↗Divestiture sharpens BWXT to a pure-play nuclear national-security and commercial nuclear company, removes a lower-margin non-core segment, and generates proceeds that can be redeployed into higher-return defense and enrichment contracts. The retained minority stake preserves upside if the medical unit re-rates as a standalone radiopharmaceutical pure-play.
source ↗Guidance raise paired with a 40% backlog increase confirms multi-year revenue visibility; the NNSA uranium centrifuge acceleration is a novel long-duration contract layer on top of the established Navy propulsion base, and the Precision Components Group acquisition adds US commercial nuclear component manufacturing capacity.
source ↗BWXT is executing at a high level. The Q2 beat, guidance raise to $3.8B, and $800M medical divestiture collectively sharpen the investment thesis: BWXT is becoming a pure-play nuclear national security and power company with a cleaner balance sheet and more capital to deploy into its highest-return opportunities. The NNSA uranium enrichment partnership is a long-dated strategic wildcard with significant upside if domestic enrichment spending scales as anticipated. No major catalysts until Q3 results in early November. The 1-year thesis is intact and improving; the 3-month view is steady-state.
The divestiture sharply refocuses BWXT on nuclear national security and commercial nuclear power — its highest-margin and fastest-growing segments — while generating up to $800M in cash proceeds that can fund share buybacks, debt reduction, or reinvestment in NNSA nuclear enrichment programs. The concurrent guidance raise confirms underlying core business momentum independent of the medical sale.
source ↗NNSA centrifuge partnership positions BWXT to capture a share of the US government's domestic HALEU enrichment buildout — a multi-decade program that, if awarded at scale, would represent a materially new revenue stream beyond BWXT's existing naval and commercial reactor work.
source ↗BWXT is one of the cleanest executions in the defense-industrial complex. A record $8.4B backlog with a 1.7x trailing book-to-bill provides multi-year earnings visibility that few peers can match. The medical divestiture removes a non-core drag; the PCG acquisition completes a vertically integrated commercial nuclear platform. Commercial nuclear at +72% YoY is an earnings inflection story that could accelerate given the global reactor buildout pipeline. High conviction; next catalyst is the Q3 print in November and medical business closing confirmation.
The medical divestiture sharpens BWXT's focus on its highest-value nuclear segments; the PCG acquisition builds a domestic commercial nuclear manufacturing platform; and the record backlog with a 1.7x book-to-bill provides exceptional multi-year revenue visibility — all directly positive for earnings trajectory.
source ↗The commercial nuclear segment growing 72% YoY signals that the nuclear renaissance is translating into hard revenue — not just order intake — faster than consensus expected; this segment is becoming a material earnings contributor and could drive multiple expansion if the trajectory continues.
source ↗1M
3M
6M
1Y
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Blank means it cannot be computed honestly.
Revenue grew 22.7% versus the comparable filing period, while operating margin was 12.1%.
Revenue shows whether demand is expanding, while operating and free-cash-flow margins show how much of those sales becomes profit and cash. Net cash or debt affects how resilient that result is.
Watch whether future free cash flow reduces net debt while growth and margins hold.
Every figure comes from an SEC filing and carries the day it was measured. Nothing here is estimated.
The filed share count increased 0.24% over roughly a year. That is dilution: each existing share represents a smaller percentage ownership slice.
A growing business can still deliver weak per-share progress when the share count grows too. The count says what happened to ownership slices, not why the company issued shares.
Watch the next filing cover page and the cash-flow and stock-compensation disclosures to see whether issuance continues and what caused it.
91.62 M
total shares when last reported · Jul 31, 2026 · 43 days ago
Three checks use SEC filings alone. The net-buyback check requires matching stated filing and quote currencies, a compatible single-ticker SEC share-unit receipt, and a dated provider quote; its row explains any refusal. One dated deep-review judgement is marked researched; missing checks are excluded, never treated as zero.
A score requires both core checks — what the share count did and pay in stock versus revenue — plus at least one other established check. Missing core check: pay in stock, vs revenue.
A company can grow while each shareholder owns a smaller slice. Share issuance and stock pay can offset part of the business gain.
Establish the missing core check first; other unestablished checks: buybacks net of new stock sold; will your slice survive the horizon; room left under the charter.
+0.2% between the 2025-08-01 and 2026-07-31 filing cover pages.
the two figures cover different periods, and a ratio across mismatched periods would be invented
stock sold is untagged — and missing is not zero, so no net can be computed
Not researched yet — this appears after the next dossier run on this company.
authorized shares are measured on 2026-06-30 while outstanding shares are measured on 2026-07-31; different dates cannot establish current headroom
A conditional model using SEC filings and a delayed-market quote from Yahoo Finance for the Sep 11, 2026 session. It is not a market forecast or analyst consensus.
At today’s price, this simple model needs sales to grow about 47% each year for three years.
A high number means the company must grow quickly to justify today's price. A low number gives the business more room to disappoint.
Watch sales growth and operating profit. If either changes, this required-growth number can change too.
At today's price, the whole operating business is valued at $15.2B after debt and cash. Under this simple model, the price only adds up if sales grow ≈47% a year for the next 3 years while operating profit stays near 12% of sales. This is a simple test, not a prediction.
The earlier review did not establish a usable sales-growth range. review saved Aug 12, 2026 · check date unavailable.
The SEC’s structured data establishes the total share count but carries no count of the shares structurally excluded from ordinary trading. Control and affiliate holdings, restricted stock and locked-up shares are disclosed publicly — in proxy statements, prospectuses and 8-Ks — as prose with no tag to read them from, and have not been researched into a figure this card can pair with the total above.
Share count increased 0.24% — dilution risk: each existing share owns a smaller percentage of the company.
Both counts in full, exactly as each cover page printed them, and both bars measured from zero against the larger — so a small move looks small.
measured Jun 30, 2025, 14 months ago — from the 10-K filed Feb 23, 2026
Market value of shares held by non-affiliates under the SEC filing definition. This is a dollar amount, not a share count. It is never converted into one to fill the line above.
Not researched yet. Release dates, tranche sizes, the shares issued at IPO and the insider breakdown are prose in the prospectus and in 8-Ks, with no XBRL tag to read them from. They appear here once TickerYou research can quote the source clause behind each figure—never estimated in the meantime.
The model: value the business in 3 years at 15× that year's operating income (the latest reported margin held constant), discount back at 10% a year, and solve for the revenue growth that makes it equal the quoted enterprise value. The three constants are fixed across every company — deliberately crude, so the figure means the same thing everywhere. It cannot price pre-profit names, ignores margin change and buybacks, and treats the exit multiple as settled; read it as a yardstick, not a valuation.
Mechanical sensitivity · not forecasts
≈67.9%/yr
at 10× exit
≈46.7%/yr
at 15× exit
≈33.3%/yr
at 20× exit
A lower exit value requires more growth. This range exposes how strongly the result depends on one assumption; it does not predict where the stock will trade.