Loading page
What we know about this company
Open this Idea →Cogent Biosciences, Inc.
Watching · below 8/10
our belief 7/10 · confidence score 63/100
Our longer-term business view, not a prediction for this week.
May rise over the next year. Open for the simple explanation.
Why we are waiting
Our belief is below the 8/10 level needed for a strong Idea.
Next check: Keep it in background research until our belief reaches 8/10.
Research conviction is below the 8/10 level needed for a high-conviction idea. Whether FDA approves the GIST application on November 30 and whether labels support uptake against established therapy.
The research view is still too uncertain at 7/10 to treat this as a current opportunity.
View unchanged Sep 2, 2026 · research strength 7/10 — full saved wording is in the research history
$33.41
last session
Important event in 79 days · Nov 30 · Date not confirmed
Cogent is a drug company with one experimental medicine, bezuclastinib, and no product on the market yet. The pill blocks a faulty gene that drives certain cancers and a rare blood-cell disease. It doesn't earn money today — it lost about $96 million in the three months to June 2026 — but it holds roughly $866 million in cash, enough to run into late 2028. The big deal is that U.S. regulators are reviewing it for three separate uses at once, with two yes-or-no decisions due November 30 and December 30, 2026, and the trial results behind them are strong. The one thing that has to go right: the FDA has to say yes, and then doctors have to actually switch patients to it from Sanofi's established drug, Ayvakit. The one thing that could go wrong: a rejection or a slow launch would wipe out most of the value, because the shares already cost about $5.75 billion for a company with no sales. It also keeps selling new stock, which shrinks each owner's share.
Loading company numbers
Loading latest quarterly results
Loading ownership and market expectations
Supplemental SEC filing context loads independently from the company evidence above.
Checking the newest complete filings from the large investors we follow. The rest of this page is ready while these delayed reports load.
Aug 20, 2026
At 7/10 this is below the 8/10 level required to publish it as a strong Idea. The research is still saved:
A differentiated, well-financed clinical-stage biotech entering a rare three-approval window in Q4 2026 on strong pivotal data — but pre-revenue, single-asset, richly priced, and reliant on stock issuance. A compelling story that stays below the conviction bar on valuation and binary regulatory risk.
No company checks yet for COGT.
The open Idea research history is on the idea page.
A company check will appear here after the next scheduled review.
1 check left
Current active Idea · Record saved Aug 11, 2026 · check date unavailable. The original research wording and date checks stay available inside.
These events and risks belong to TickerYou’s current Idea.
An event can change what investors believe. A risk shows how our research could be wrong.
Watch for a company announcement or filing that confirms or moves this date.
Computed by TickerYou from 1254 completed daily closing sessions supplied by Yahoo Finance, through Sep 10, 2026. The Sep 11, 2026 quote-session candle was excluded because a delayed feed cannot prove it was final. No company fundamentals enter this reading.
Shorter and longer price trends point in different directions, so there is no clear trend.
Price movement can help with timing and can warn when the market disagrees with our Idea. It does not tell us what the business is worth.
Watch whether the close and the 50-session average ($38.25) move to the same side of the 200-session average ($36.96).
Last closing price
$34.08
Sep 10, 2026
Average price over 20 trading days
$35.92
Close is 5.1% below this average
Average price over 50 trading days
$38.25
Close is 10.9% below this average
Average price over 200 trading days
$36.96
Close is 7.8% below this average
Recent price speed
37.2 · balanced
A 14-day speed reading; lower than 30 is low and higher than 70 is high
Is the trend speeding up?
Below signal
Shows whether the shorter trend is pulling ahead of or behind the longer one
The moving averages are simple averages over exactly 20, 50, and 200 daily trading sessions. RSI uses Wilder's 14-session smoothing; a flat series is neutral at 50. MACD uses 12- and 26-session exponential averages with a 9-session signal. A window is never shortened when history is missing. Every comparison uses the final dated daily close—not an intraday quote—so all figures share one observation boundary. A candle dated to an active delayed-quote session is excluded because it may still be changing. These are trend and momentum references, not a Buy/Sell score.
Complete SEC 13F filings only. These delayed reports show filed share amounts, not a manager’s full portfolio, intent, or a proven trade.
2 of 14 recent complete filings report ordinary shares. Compared with the prior report: 1 with more shares and 1 with fewer shares.
A large, repeated position can support a research story, but these filings arrive late and do not show an investor’s full portfolio or reason for owning the stock.
Look for the same investor to keep a meaningful position across several reports.
No numeric score or recommendation is made from these delayed filings. They are one piece of background evidence, not a buy or sell signal.
14 current complete filings of 16 tracked managers. 2 investors have only an older filing and are left out of this current view. Current holding dates span Mar 31, 2026 to Jun 30, 2026.
COGT is 0.05% of Renaissance Technologies's disclosed portfolio ($38.55 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in 4 consecutive quarters.
COGT is 0.00% of Citadel Advisors's disclosed portfolio ($32.88 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in all 2 quarters we can see.
Market-neutral / multi-strategy: Citadel often reports shares, calls, and puts at the same time. These rows show reported exposure, not a simple bullish or bearish bet.
Citadel Advisors (Ken Griffin) reports a PUT option ($2.91 M). The filing does not prove whether it is a bet or a hedge, so options never count as ordinary shares above.
Citadel Advisors (Ken Griffin) reports a CALL option ($5.72 M). The filing does not prove whether it is a bet or a hedge, so options never count as ordinary shares above.
1 newly or higher reported, 1 lower reported. Reported amounts only; corporate actions are not normalized.
Reported by 2 of 14 managers with a current filing; at least 0.5% of disclosed 13F value for 0.
Largest reported position: Renaissance Technologies at 0.05% of disclosed 13F value ($38.55 M).
Across 6 quarters of stored filings: 6 newly or higher comparisons, 3 lower or absent, 0 unchanged, across 3 managers. Corporate actions are not normalized.
No numeric score is shown: filing comparisons are not adjusted for splits or other corporate actions, so reported changes cannot be treated as trades.
13Fs can arrive up to 45 days after quarter end. They omit short positions, cash, and securities outside the SEC's 13(f) list. Higher, lower, new, and absent describe filed share amounts, not proven purchases or sales; splits and other corporate actions are not normalized. This is context for a thesis, never a call by itself.
Three checks use SEC filings alone. The net-buyback check requires matching stated filing and quote currencies, a compatible single-ticker SEC share-unit receipt, and a dated provider quote; its row explains any refusal. One dated deep-review judgement is marked researched; missing checks are excluded, never treated as zero.
A score requires both core checks — what the share count did and pay in stock versus revenue — plus at least one other established check. Missing core check: pay in stock, vs revenue.
A company can grow while each shareholder owns a smaller slice. Share issuance and stock pay can offset part of the business gain.
Establish the missing core check first; other unestablished checks: buybacks net of new stock sold; room left under the charter.
+24.2% between the 2025-08-01 and 2026-08-06 filing cover pages.
the two figures cover different periods, and a ratio across mismatched periods would be invented
repurchases are untagged — and missing is not zero, so no net can be computed
The deep review’s dated judgement (published Aug 20, 2026; evidence cutoff unavailable): how much of a 1% ownership slice at that review could survive through its horizon.
authorized shares are measured on 2026-06-30 while outstanding shares are measured on 2026-08-06; different dates cannot establish current headroom
review saved Aug 20, 2026 · check date unavailable
Cogent has about 170.9 million shares out and is owned almost entirely by institutions. Because it earns no revenue, it pays for everything by selling new stock, and it just opened a fresh program (Aug 10, 2026) to sell up to $400 million more — on top of the $73.6 million of stock it already sold last quarter. The company says its cash lasts into late 2028, so it is not desperate, but it will keep issuing shares to fund the launch, which slowly shrinks each existing owner's slice. Insiders have not been buying on balance: Fairmount, a large holder, sold 7 million shares in March 2026 and several executives sold too. I could not pin an exact insider ownership percentage from the latest proxy (filed Apr 23, 2026). Net: expect your slice to get diluted, not concentrated, over the next year.
Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported — the label its release used and its consensus estimate was quoted against — and by the month that quarter ended, taken from the filer's own XBRL period boundaries. A fiscal year need not follow the calendar, so Apple's Q2 runs January to March; naming the quarter end keeps that true in both calendars, and no quarter number is ever inferred from a date. Quarterly financials beside this card names the same quarter the same way. TickerYou takes the figures from the release and its filing; every word, sign and percentage is calculated by the app from those stored numbers. A post-release reaction appears only with the stored first-close measurement stamp; otherwise the card says the window is not established and computes no divergence. EPS here is on the basis consensus quotes — adjusted for most US names — so it can legitimately differ from the GAAP figure in Quarterly financials. Rows marked [backfilled] were confirmed from archived coverage after the fact — a lower evidence tier than live capture, and labelled so.
Q2 FY2026 · Jun 2026: EPS beat the stored consensus estimate. The first stamped post-release close moved down 2.0%.
A surprise shows how the release differed from expectations, not whether the business is good or the thesis is right. The price reaction shows repricing, not its cause.
Watch whether the next comparable release confirms the result; one beat or market move does not establish a durable trend.
Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · Reported Aug 10, 2026 · post-release reaction · muted · 1.4× typical
Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · Reported May 5, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Pre-revenue quarter; net loss widened to $97.4M from $72.0M a year ago, driven by R&D ramp ($75.4M) and higher G&A ($28.2M) ahead of bezuclastinib commercialisation; $866M cash runway extends to 2028, two bezuclastinib NDAs under FDA review with a PDUFA date of Dec 30, 2026 for NonAdvSM.
Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 · Reported Feb 17, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Q4 2025 net loss widened to $102.5M (from $67.9M in Q4 2024) as R&D spending accelerated ahead of three planned bezuclastinib NDA submissions; the company remains pre-revenue and ended the year with $900.8M cash guiding operations into 2028, while the quarter's EPS miss broke a three-quarter streak of outperformance.
Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 · Reported Nov 3, 2025 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] COGT posted a Q3 2025 net loss of $80.9M with no product revenue; cash and securities of $390.9M extend runway into 2027, and the company flagged imminent top-line PEAK (bezuclastinib + sunitinib in GIST) and APEX (AdvSM) readouts as well as an NDA filing for NonAdvSM on track for year-end 2025.
Quarter ended Jun 30, 2025 · Reported Aug 5, 2025 · stock move after results · not shown
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported and the month that quarter ended, through the same resolver the Earnings card beside this one uses; where no release established a fiscal label, the quarter is named by its end alone rather than by a quarter number guessed from the date. EPS is GAAP diluted, as filed, so it can legitimately differ from the adjusted figure in the Earnings card (consensus is quoted adjusted). Y/Y compares the same fiscal quarter a year earlier; a comparison that cannot be made honestly is an em-dash that says why.
Q2 FY2026 · Jun 2026: the filing establishes the quarter, but comparable year-ago growth and margin are not established.
Comparing the same fiscal quarter a year earlier controls for seasonality. Revenue direction and margin direction together show whether sales are translating into profit, but one quarter is evidence—not a complete thesis.
Watch for the next filing that supplies a same-quarter comparison rather than substituting an older period.
1M
3M
6M
1Y
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Blank means it cannot be computed honestly.
Revenue fell 65.0% versus the comparable filing period.
Revenue shows whether demand is expanding, while operating and free-cash-flow margins show how much of those sales becomes profit and cash. Net cash or debt affects how resilient that result is.
Watch whether the next comparable filing reverses the revenue decline without weakening operating or cash-flow margins.
Every figure comes from an SEC filing and carries the day it was measured. Nothing here is estimated.
The filed share count increased 24.21% over roughly a year. That is dilution: each existing share represents a smaller percentage ownership slice.
A growing business can still deliver weak per-share progress when the share count grows too. The count says what happened to ownership slices, not why the company issued shares.
Watch the next filing cover page and the cash-flow and stock-compensation disclosures to see whether issuance continues and what caused it.
173.52 M
total shares when last reported · Aug 6, 2026 · 37 days ago
No product revenue (pre-commercial); net loss of $96.4M reflected a surge in G&A to $31.8M (from $13.4M a year ago) driven by commercial readiness build-out, with R&D at $70.8M supporting three NDA submissions in H1 2026; pro forma cash of $865.9M funds operations into late 2028, bracketing dual PDUFA dates for bezuclastinib in GIST (Nov 30) and NonAdvSM (Dec 30).
[backfilled] Pre-revenue clinical biotech; Q2 2025 net loss widened to $96.4M driven by $62.2M R&D spend on the PEAK (GIST) and APEX (AdvSM) pivotal trials; company raised $230M in a July 2025 upsized public offering and reported positive SUMMIT top-line data for bezuclastinib in NonAdvanced SM just ahead of the print.
Quarter ended Mar 31, 2025 · Reported May 6, 2025 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Pre-revenue quarter; $72.0M net loss on $74.9M operating expenses as COGT funded the SUMMIT, APEX, and PEAK bezuclastinib trials, ended with $245.7M cash, and guided to top-line data readouts from all three programs by year-end 2025.
| (USD) |
|---|
| Q2 FY2026Quarter ended Jun 2026 |
|---|
| vs last year |
|---|
| Revenue | — | — |
| Profit after costs | $-96.41 M | — |
| Profit per share | -0.52 | — |
| Profit margin | — | — |
† derived: the fiscal year minus its three reported quarters — no 10-K reports a Q4 figure directly. For EPS this assumes per-share figures add across the year.
| Quarter | Revenue | Y/Y | Net income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 · Mar 2026 | — | — | $-97.35 M | — |
| Q4 FY2025 · Dec 2025 | — | — | $-102.49 M † | — |
| Q3 FY2025 · Sep 2025 | — | — | $-80.93 M | — |
| Q2 FY2025 · Jun 2025 | — | — | $-73.53 M | — |
| Q1 FY2025 · Mar 2025 | — | — | $-71.99 M | — |
| Dec 2024 | — | — | $-67.93 M † | — |
| Sep 2024 | — | — | $-70.63 M | — |
| Jun 2024 | — | — | $-58.95 M | — |
The SEC’s structured data establishes the total share count but carries no count of the shares structurally excluded from ordinary trading. Control and affiliate holdings, restricted stock and locked-up shares are disclosed publicly — in proxy statements, prospectuses and 8-Ks — as prose with no tag to read them from, and have not been researched into a figure this card can pair with the total above.
Share count increased 24.21% — dilution risk: each existing share owns a smaller percentage of the company.
Both counts in full, exactly as each cover page printed them, and both bars measured from zero against the larger — so a small move looks small.
measured Jun 30, 2025, 14 months ago — from the 10-K filed Feb 17, 2026
Market value of shares held by non-affiliates under the SEC filing definition. This is a dollar amount, not a share count. It is never converted into one to fill the line above.
Not researched yet. Release dates, tranche sizes, the shares issued at IPO and the insider breakdown are prose in the prospectus and in 8-Ks, with no XBRL tag to read them from. They appear here once TickerYou research can quote the source clause behind each figure—never estimated in the meantime.