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What we know about this company
Open this Idea →Cheniere Energy, Inc.
Watching · below 8/10
our belief 7/10 · confidence score 76/100
Our longer-term business view, not a prediction for this week.
May rise over the next year. Open for the simple explanation.
Why we are waiting
Our belief is below the 8/10 level needed for a strong Idea.
Next check: Keep it in background research until our belief reaches 8/10.
Research conviction is below the 8/10 level needed for a high-conviction idea. The next unresolved facts are 2027 run-rate DCF, marketing-margin resilience, and the post-completion buyback pace.
The research view is still too uncertain at 7/10 to treat this as a current opportunity.
View updated Sep 2, 2026 · research strength 7/10 — full saved wording is in the research history
$278.34
last session
Quarterly results window begins in 50 days · Nov 1–10 · Range not confirmed
Cheniere buys natural gas in the United States, chills it until it turns to liquid, and ships it overseas to buyers in Europe and Asia. It runs two giant coastal plants, in Louisiana and Texas. The clever part: most of its selling is locked in under contracts that last 15 to 20 years, where customers pay whether or not they take the gas. So Cheniere earns a steady fee no matter what the price of gas does. The company makes real money — it raised its full-year 2026 profit outlook to roughly $7.9 to $8.4 billion in operating earnings, and it is buying back huge amounts of its own stock, shrinking the share count by about a quarter. The one thing that has to go right: it finishes building its new Texas trains on time, lifting its steady cash. The one thing that could go wrong: a wave of new gas-export plants opens worldwide around 2027 to 2030, and while the contracts protect the base, the uncontracted slice and future deals would earn less.
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Aug 20, 2026
At 7/10 this is below the 8/10 level required to publish it as a strong Idea. The research is still saved:
A contracted-cash-flow exporter mispriced as a commodity bet, with a visible volume step-up and an aggressive buyback. Long, 1y; the risk is the 2027-2030 glut capping any re-rating rather than a threat to the contracted base.
No company checks yet for LNG.
The open Idea research history is on the idea page.
A company check will appear here after the next scheduled review.
1 check left
Current active Idea · Record saved Sep 2, 2026 · check date unavailable. The original research wording and date checks stay available inside.
These events and risks belong to TickerYou’s current Idea.
An event can change what investors believe. A risk shows how our research could be wrong. The countdown is to the start of a window, not a promised event day.
Watch for a company announcement that confirms, narrows, moves, or cancels this window.
We rated 2 of 2 upcoming events. 0 are both likely and important.
50 of 100 = chance 0.85 × effect 0.6 × date nearness 0.98.
33 of 100 = chance 0.55 × effect 0.6 × date nearness 1.00.
Computed by TickerYou from 1254 completed daily closing sessions supplied by Yahoo Finance, through Sep 10, 2026. The Sep 11, 2026 quote-session candle was excluded because a delayed feed cannot prove it was final. No company fundamentals enter this reading.
The price has been trending up across both the medium and longer term.
Price movement can help with timing and can warn when the market disagrees with our Idea. It does not tell us what the business is worth.
Watch whether the close holds above the 50-session average at $268.09; the 200-session average at $241.33 is the slower reference.
Last closing price
$277.84
Sep 10, 2026
Average price over 20 trading days
$280.55
Close is 1.0% below this average
Average price over 50 trading days
$268.09
Close is 3.6% above this average
Average price over 200 trading days
$241.33
Close is 15.1% above this average
Recent price speed
50.8 · balanced
A 14-day speed reading; lower than 30 is low and higher than 70 is high
Is the trend speeding up?
Below signal
Shows whether the shorter trend is pulling ahead of or behind the longer one
The moving averages are simple averages over exactly 20, 50, and 200 daily trading sessions. RSI uses Wilder's 14-session smoothing; a flat series is neutral at 50. MACD uses 12- and 26-session exponential averages with a 9-session signal. A window is never shortened when history is missing. Every comparison uses the final dated daily close—not an intraday quote—so all figures share one observation boundary. A candle dated to an active delayed-quote session is excluded because it may still be changing. These are trend and momentum references, not a Buy/Sell score.
1M
3M
6M
1Y
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Blank means it cannot be computed honestly.
Revenue grew 22.2% versus the comparable filing period, while operating margin was 29.3%.
Revenue shows whether demand is expanding, while operating and free-cash-flow margins show how much of those sales becomes profit and cash. Net cash or debt affects how resilient that result is.
Watch whether future free cash flow reduces net debt while growth and margins hold.
Every figure comes from an SEC filing and carries the day it was measured. Nothing here is estimated.
The filed share count decreased 6.02% over roughly a year. Each remaining share represents a larger percentage ownership slice; that alone does not prove repurchases created value.
A lower count lets each remaining share participate in more of the company, but value still depends on what the company paid and whether new issuance offsets the reduction.
Watch whether the count keeps falling and whether repurchases exceed new issuance. The cover-page counts establish direction, not the cause.
206.53 M
total shares when last reported · Jul 31, 2026 · 43 days ago
Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported — the label its release used and its consensus estimate was quoted against — and by the month that quarter ended, taken from the filer's own XBRL period boundaries. A fiscal year need not follow the calendar, so Apple's Q2 runs January to March; naming the quarter end keeps that true in both calendars, and no quarter number is ever inferred from a date. Quarterly financials beside this card names the same quarter the same way. TickerYou takes the figures from the release and its filing; every word, sign and percentage is calculated by the app from those stored numbers. A post-release reaction appears only with the stored first-close measurement stamp; otherwise the card says the window is not established and computes no divergence. EPS here is on the basis consensus quotes — adjusted for most US names — so it can legitimately differ from the GAAP figure in Quarterly financials. Rows marked [backfilled] were confirmed from archived coverage after the fact — a lower evidence tier than live capture, and labelled so.
Q2 FY2026 · Jun 2026: EPS beat the stored consensus estimate, while revenue beat the stored consensus estimate. No post-release price reaction is asserted because its stamped measurement window is not established.
A surprise shows how the release differed from expectations, not whether the business is good or the thesis is right. The price reaction shows repricing, not its cause.
Watch whether the next comparable release confirms the result; one beat or market move does not establish a durable trend.
Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · Reported Aug 6, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Record export volumes of 672 TBtu (+20% YoY) as Stage 3 trains ramped ahead of schedule, combined with higher spot-sale margins, powered the beat; Cheniere raised full-year 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.90–$8.40B from $7.25–$7.75B (second consecutive raise, new low end above prior high end) and tightened production outlook to 53–54 million tons.
Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · Reported May 7, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Record 688 TBtu exported drove adjusted EPS up 34.6% YoY; company raised full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.25–$7.75B and Distributable Cash Flow to $4.75–$5.25B; GAAP loss of -$16.65/share reflects $5.4B non-cash derivative mark-to-market, not operations.
Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 · Reported Feb 26, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Cheniere reports GAAP EPS only, not adjusted; no basis-matched EPS comparison is possible. Q4 2025 revenue of $5.45B came in slightly below consensus; management introduced 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.75–$7.25B and announced completion of the '20/20 Vision' capital allocation plan.
Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 · Reported Oct 30, 2025 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Revenue missed at $4.44B vs $4.87B consensus; Cheniere reports GAAP EPS only and the $4.75 GAAP figure cleared the $2.75 GAAP consensus. Adjusted EBITDA grew to $1.608B year-on-year as two Sabine Pass trains reached substantial completion in Q3; a third was on track for year-end.
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported and the month that quarter ended, through the same resolver the Earnings card beside this one uses; where no release established a fiscal label, the quarter is named by its end alone rather than by a quarter number guessed from the date. EPS is GAAP diluted, as filed, so it can legitimately differ from the adjusted figure in the Earnings card (consensus is quoted adjusted). Y/Y compares the same fiscal quarter a year earlier; a comparison that cannot be made honestly is an em-dash that says why.
Q2 FY2026 · Jun 2026: Revenue grew 26.0% year over year; net income grew 88.7% year over year; and net profit margin was 54.0%, up 18.0 percentage points.
Comparing the same fiscal quarter a year earlier controls for seasonality. Revenue direction and margin direction together show whether sales are translating into profit, but one quarter is evidence—not a complete thesis.
Watch whether the next comparable quarter confirms both the sales direction and the margin direction.
Three checks use SEC filings alone. The net-buyback check requires matching stated filing and quote currencies, a compatible single-ticker SEC share-unit receipt, and a dated provider quote; its row explains any refusal. One dated deep-review judgement is marked researched; missing checks are excluded, never treated as zero.
A score requires both core checks — what the share count did and pay in stock versus revenue — plus at least one other established check. Missing core check: pay in stock, vs revenue.
A company can grow while each shareholder owns a smaller slice. Share issuance and stock pay can offset part of the business gain.
Establish the missing core check first; other unestablished checks: buybacks net of new stock sold; room left under the charter.
-6.0% between the 2025-08-01 and 2026-07-31 filing cover pages.
the two figures cover different periods, and a ratio across mismatched periods would be invented
the two sides cover different periods
The deep review’s dated judgement (published Aug 20, 2026; evidence cutoff unavailable): how much of a 1% ownership slice at that review could survive through its horizon.
authorized shares are measured on 2026-06-30 while outstanding shares are measured on 2026-07-31; different dates cannot establish current headroom
review saved Aug 20, 2026 · check date unavailable
Ownership is diffuse — no controlling family or founder — and insiders own only a small slice, so management's own stake is not the reason to buy. What matters is the direction of the share count, and it is falling fast: a $10B-plus program running from 2026 to 2030 has already bought back roughly a quarter of all shares, far outweighing the stock handed to employees. There is no sign the company needs to sell new shares to fund itself; the terminals are largely built and the contracted fees cover the spending. For a long-term holder that is the good case — every buyback makes each remaining share own a bigger piece of the same growing cash flow. The main risk here is not dilution but that management overpays for stock if the price runs up.
A conditional model using SEC filings and a delayed-market quote from Yahoo Finance for the Sep 11, 2026 session. It is not a market forecast or analyst consensus.
At today’s price, this simple model needs sales to grow about 3% each year for three years.
A high number means the company must grow quickly to justify today's price. A low number gives the business more room to disappoint.
Watch sales growth and operating profit. If either changes, this required-growth number can change too.
At today's price, the whole operating business is valued at $79B after debt and cash. Under this simple model, the price only adds up if sales grow ≈3% a year for the next 3 years while operating profit stays near 29% of sales. This is a simple test, not a prediction.
The last deep review estimated 0–10% yearly growth, but the current research view is below the strength needed for a strong Idea. We show the older estimate without calling it a current opportunity. review saved Aug 20, 2026 · check date unavailable.
Complete SEC 13F filings only. These delayed reports show filed share amounts, not a manager’s full portfolio, intent, or a proven trade.
3 of 14 recent complete filings report ordinary shares. Compared with the prior report: 2 with more shares and 1 with fewer shares.
A large, repeated position can support a research story, but these filings arrive late and do not show an investor’s full portfolio or reason for owning the stock.
Look for the same investor to keep a meaningful position across several reports.
No numeric score or recommendation is made from these delayed filings. They are one piece of background evidence, not a buy or sell signal.
14 current complete filings of 16 tracked managers. 2 investors have only an older filing and are left out of this current view. Current holding dates span Mar 31, 2026 to Jun 30, 2026.
The SEC’s structured data establishes the total share count but carries no count of the shares structurally excluded from ordinary trading. Control and affiliate holdings, restricted stock and locked-up shares are disclosed publicly — in proxy statements, prospectuses and 8-Ks — as prose with no tag to read them from, and have not been researched into a figure this card can pair with the total above.
Share count decreased 6.02% — ownership slice improved: each remaining share owns a larger percentage of the company.
Both counts in full, exactly as each cover page printed them, and both bars measured from zero against the larger — so a small move looks small.
measured Jun 30, 2025, 14 months ago — from the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
Market value of shares held by non-affiliates under the SEC filing definition. This is a dollar amount, not a share count. It is never converted into one to fill the line above.
Not researched yet. Release dates, tranche sizes, the shares issued at IPO and the insider breakdown are prose in the prospectus and in 8-Ks, with no XBRL tag to read them from. They appear here once TickerYou research can quote the source clause behind each figure—never estimated in the meantime.
| (USD) | Q2 FY2026Quarter ended Jun 2026 | vs last year |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.68 B | |
| Profit after costs | $3.07 B | |
| Profit per share | 14.65 | |
| Profit margin | 54.0% |
† derived: the fiscal year minus its three reported quarters — no 10-K reports a Q4 figure directly. For EPS this assumes per-share figures add across the year.
| Quarter | Revenue | Y/Y | Net income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 · Mar 2026 | $6.59 B | $-3.50 B | -53.2% | |
| Q4 FY2025 · Dec 2025 | $5.38 B † | $3.77 B † | 70.1% | |
| Q3 FY2025 · Sep 2025 | $4.29 B | $1.05 B | 24.4% | |
| Jun 2025 | $4.51 B | $1.63 B | 36.1% | |
| Mar 2025 | $5.29 B | $353.00 M | 6.7% | |
| Dec 2024 | $4.47 B † | $2.22 B † | 49.6% | |
| Sep 2024 | $3.68 B | $893.00 M | 24.2% | |
| Jun 2024 | $3.15 B | $880.00 M | 28.0% |
The model: value the business in 3 years at 15× that year's operating income (the latest reported margin held constant), discount back at 10% a year, and solve for the revenue growth that makes it equal the quoted enterprise value. The three constants are fixed across every company — deliberately crude, so the figure means the same thing everywhere. It cannot price pre-profit names, ignores margin change and buybacks, and treats the exit multiple as settled; read it as a yardstick, not a valuation.
Mechanical sensitivity · not forecasts
≈17.9%/yr
at 10× exit
≈3.0%/yr
at 15× exit
≈-6.4%/yr
at 20× exit
A lower exit value requires more growth. This range exposes how strongly the result depends on one assumption; it does not predict where the stock will trade.
LNG is 0.24% of Renaissance Technologies's disclosed portfolio ($171.94 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in all 6 quarters we can see.
LNG is 0.07% of Bridgewater Associates's disclosed portfolio ($17.17 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in all 6 quarters we can see.
LNG is 0.02% of Citadel Advisors's disclosed portfolio ($143.59 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in all 2 quarters we can see.
Market-neutral / multi-strategy: Citadel often reports shares, calls, and puts at the same time. These rows show reported exposure, not a simple bullish or bearish bet.
Citadel Advisors (Ken Griffin) reports a PUT option ($145.49 M). The filing does not prove whether it is a bet or a hedge, so options never count as ordinary shares above.
Citadel Advisors (Ken Griffin) reports a CALL option ($149.00 M). The filing does not prove whether it is a bet or a hedge, so options never count as ordinary shares above.
2 newly or higher reported, 1 lower reported. Reported amounts only; corporate actions are not normalized.
Reported by 3 of 14 managers with a current filing; at least 0.5% of disclosed 13F value for 0.
Largest reported position: Renaissance Technologies at 0.24% of disclosed 13F value ($171.94 M).
Across 6 quarters of stored filings: 6 newly or higher comparisons, 4 lower or absent, 1 unchanged, across 3 managers. Corporate actions are not normalized.
No numeric score is shown: filing comparisons are not adjusted for splits or other corporate actions, so reported changes cannot be treated as trades.
13Fs can arrive up to 45 days after quarter end. They omit short positions, cash, and securities outside the SEC's 13(f) list. Higher, lower, new, and absent describe filed share amounts, not proven purchases or sales; splits and other corporate actions are not normalized. This is context for a thesis, never a call by itself.