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What we know about this company
A dated company review is availableMicrosoft Corporation
No eligible material thesis change.
TickerYou is watching this company, but we are not currently recommending it. An earlier full review was positive 7/10, but that view is historical.
$495.63
last session
Price only · no current Idea
Quarterly results in 46 days · Oct 28 · Estimated date
This came from an earlier review. It is useful background, not a current Idea.
Microsoft sells software and cloud computing to businesses, and on a smaller scale to regular people. The big engines are Azure (renting servers and AI capacity), Microsoft 365 (Office, Teams and email for companies), Windows, and the Xbox gaming business. It is very profitable today. In the year that just ended, Microsoft brought in about $332 billion in sales and $155 billion in operating profit — one of the most cash-generative companies on the planet. Azure just crossed $100 billion a year and grew 43% last quarter. The one thing that has to go right is that the enormous spending on AI data centers — roughly $175 to $190 billion this calendar year — actually keeps paying back in real customer bills. Microsoft says demand still runs ahead of what it can build. The one thing that could go wrong is that this capacity gets built faster than customers rent it, or that OpenAI, now less tied to Microsoft, sends its business to Amazon or Google.
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TickerYou is checking this company, but no active investment Idea is open.
That review was positive with 7/10 research strength. It is history, not a current Idea.
Read the newest company check below. New facts can update the research, but watching a company does not turn it into a recommendation.
No eligible material thesis change.
No eligible material thesis change. The 3m setup is still the expected October fiscal Q1 print; the 1y case remains high-quality cloud and AI compounding weighed against valuation and capex-return risk.
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Earlier company review · Record saved Aug 13, 2026 · check date unavailable. The original research wording and date checks stay available inside.
These events and risks came from an earlier company review. There is no current Idea.
An event can change what investors believe. A risk shows how our research could be wrong.
Watch for a company announcement or filing that confirms or moves this date.
Expected from Microsoft Earnings Date, Report, Conference Call, Forecasted Dates (MSFT) · Sep 1, 2026
No eligible material thesis change.
A company check updates what we know. It does not by itself turn this company into a current opportunity.
We rated 2 of 2 upcoming events. 0 are both likely and important.
2 older quarterly-results dates are hidden because a newer company check is shown above.
41 of 100 = chance 0.55 × effect 1 × date nearness 0.74.
7 of 100 = chance 0.55 × effect 0.6 × date nearness 0.22.
Computed by TickerYou from 1254 completed daily closing sessions supplied by Yahoo Finance, through Sep 10, 2026. The Sep 11, 2026 quote-session candle was excluded because a delayed feed cannot prove it was final. No company fundamentals enter this reading.
The price has been trending up across both the medium and longer term.
Price movement can help with timing and can warn when the market disagrees with our Idea. It does not tell us what the business is worth.
Watch whether the close holds above the 50-session average at $451.44; the 200-session average at $431.14 is the slower reference.
Last closing price
$492.44
Sep 10, 2026
Average price over 20 trading days
$494.50
Close is 0.4% below this average
Average price over 50 trading days
$451.44
Close is 9.1% above this average
Average price over 200 trading days
$431.14
Close is 14.2% above this average
Recent price speed
55.0 · balanced
A 14-day speed reading; lower than 30 is low and higher than 70 is high
Is the trend speeding up?
Below signal
Shows whether the shorter trend is pulling ahead of or behind the longer one
The moving averages are simple averages over exactly 20, 50, and 200 daily trading sessions. RSI uses Wilder's 14-session smoothing; a flat series is neutral at 50. MACD uses 12- and 26-session exponential averages with a 9-session signal. A window is never shortened when history is missing. Every comparison uses the final dated daily close—not an intraday quote—so all figures share one observation boundary. A candle dated to an active delayed-quote session is excluded because it may still be changing. These are trend and momentum references, not a Buy/Sell score.
We keep the original wording so readers can check the record. Any figures below belong to that older review and are not current guidance.
Microsoft is the highest-quality way to own the AI infrastructure buildout with a real earnings engine underneath — but at 27x forward with $175B+ of capex on the line and OpenAI economics reset, it is a buy at conviction 7, not a table-pounder.
1M
3M
6M
1Y
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Blank means it cannot be computed honestly.
Revenue grew 17.8% versus the comparable filing period; operating margin was 46.8%; and free cash flow margin was 20.2%.
Revenue shows whether demand is expanding, while operating and free-cash-flow margins show how much of those sales becomes profit and cash. Net cash or debt affects how resilient that result is.
Watch whether future free cash flow reduces net debt while growth and margins hold.
Every figure comes from an SEC filing and carries the day it was measured. Nothing here is estimated.
The filed share count decreased 0.10% over roughly a year. Each remaining share represents a larger percentage ownership slice; that alone does not prove repurchases created value.
A lower count lets each remaining share participate in more of the company, but value still depends on what the company paid and whether new issuance offsets the reduction.
Watch whether the count keeps falling and whether repurchases exceed new issuance. The cover-page counts establish direction, not the cause.
7.43 B
total shares when last reported · Jul 23, 2026 · 51 days ago
Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported — the label its release used and its consensus estimate was quoted against — and by the month that quarter ended, taken from the filer's own XBRL period boundaries. A fiscal year need not follow the calendar, so Apple's Q2 runs January to March; naming the quarter end keeps that true in both calendars, and no quarter number is ever inferred from a date. Quarterly financials beside this card names the same quarter the same way. TickerYou takes the figures from the release and its filing; every word, sign and percentage is calculated by the app from those stored numbers. A post-release reaction appears only with the stored first-close measurement stamp; otherwise the card says the window is not established and computes no divergence. EPS here is on the basis consensus quotes — adjusted for most US names — so it can legitimately differ from the GAAP figure in Quarterly financials. Rows marked [backfilled] were confirmed from archived coverage after the fact — a lower evidence tier than live capture, and labelled so.
Q4 FY2026 · Jun 2026: EPS beat the stored consensus estimate, while revenue beat the stored consensus estimate. No post-release price reaction is asserted because its stamped measurement window is not established.
A surprise shows how the release differed from expectations, not whether the business is good or the thesis is right. The price reaction shows repricing, not its cause.
Watch whether the next comparable release confirms the result; one beat or market move does not establish a durable trend.
Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · Reported Jul 29, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Azure grew 43% year-over-year — ahead of the ~40% consensus — crossing $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time, commercial remaining performance obligation surged 84% to $678 billion, and Microsoft 365 Copilot reached 30 million paid seats, with management guiding to continued AI-infrastructure investment of $255–260 billion in capex for FY2027.
Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · Reported Apr 29, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Azure and Microsoft Cloud drove an 18% revenue gain; both EPS and revenue cleared consensus by meaningful margins, though shares fell post-release as investors weighed heavy AI capital-spending commitments against the forward outlook.
Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 · Reported Jan 28, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Azure grew 39% YoY and drove Intelligent Cloud to $32.9B; Microsoft Cloud crossed $50B in quarterly revenue for the first time; Q3 revenue guidance midpoint of ~$81.2B came in line with the $81.19B LSEG consensus, with non-GAAP EPS well ahead of estimates on sustained AI and cloud demand.
Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 · Reported Oct 29, 2025 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Azure and cloud drove an 18% revenue jump to $77.7B with operating income up 24%; non-GAAP margins expanded sharply, though GAAP EPS of $3.72 was depressed $0.41/share by OpenAI investment losses; management guided Q2 revenue to $68.1–69.1B with Intelligent Cloud at $25.5–25.8B.
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported and the month that quarter ended, through the same resolver the Earnings card beside this one uses; where no release established a fiscal label, the quarter is named by its end alone rather than by a quarter number guessed from the date. EPS is GAAP diluted, as filed, so it can legitimately differ from the adjusted figure in the Earnings card (consensus is quoted adjusted). Y/Y compares the same fiscal quarter a year earlier; a comparison that cannot be made honestly is an em-dash that says why.
Q4 FY2026 · Jun 2026: Revenue grew 17.7% year over year; net income grew 31.3% year over year; and net profit margin was 39.7%, up 4.1 percentage points.
Comparing the same fiscal quarter a year earlier controls for seasonality. Revenue direction and margin direction together show whether sales are translating into profit, but one quarter is evidence—not a complete thesis.
Watch whether the next comparable quarter confirms both the sales direction and the margin direction.
Three checks use SEC filings alone. The net-buyback check combines same-currency SEC cash flows and a compatible single-ticker SEC share-unit receipt with Yahoo Finance · delayed market quote · price session 2026-09-11 · USD. One dated deep-review judgement is marked researched; missing checks are excluded, never treated as zero.
The score combines 4 established checks. Higher means the recorded share structure has been more protective of each holder’s ownership slice.
A company can grow while each shareholder owns a smaller slice. Share issuance and stock pay can offset part of the business gain. Strongest known check: will your slice survive the horizon (9/10).
Lowest known check: what the share count did (6.102525459695485/10). Still unestablished: room left under the charter.
69/100
protection from new shares · 4 of 5 checks ready
-0.1% between the 2025-07-24 and 2026-07-23 filing cover pages.
Employees were paid $12.41B in stock against $331.84B of revenue — 3.7% — in the year through 2026-06-30.
$22.27B repurchased against $2.01B of new stock sold in the year through 2026-06-30 — +0.6% of market value using 10-K cover-page count as of 2026-07-23 · sole SEC-listed ticker MSFT and Yahoo Finance · delayed market quote · price session 2026-09-11 · USD.
The deep review’s dated judgement (published Aug 13, 2026; evidence cutoff unavailable): how much of a 1% ownership slice at that review could survive through its horizon.
authorized shares are measured on 2026-06-30 while outstanding shares are measured on 2026-07-23; different dates cannot establish current headroom
review saved Aug 13, 2026 · check date unavailable
Microsoft's slice belongs to shareholders and stays that way. Insiders own about 6% of the company; Steve Ballmer alone holds roughly 4.5%. Last year Microsoft returned about $34 billion to owners through buybacks and a growing dividend, and this pattern has held for years — the share count keeps drifting lower. Stock-based pay is real, in the low single-digit billions per quarter, but repurchases have consistently outpaced it. Microsoft has no pressing need to sell new shares: it generates enormous cash and holds a net-cash balance sheet. For a long-term owner this means your slice grows slowly by doing nothing. The main way this could change would be a large stock-funded acquisition — none is currently announced or apparent from the last proxy.
A conditional model using SEC filings and a delayed-market quote from Yahoo Finance for the Sep 11, 2026 session. It is not a market forecast or analyst consensus.
At today’s price, this simple model needs sales to grow about 28% each year for three years.
A high number means the company must grow quickly to justify today's price. A low number gives the business more room to disappoint.
Watch sales growth and operating profit. If either changes, this required-growth number can change too.
At today's price, the whole operating business is valued at $3.7T after debt and cash. Under this simple model, the price only adds up if sales grow ≈28% a year for the next 3 years while operating profit stays near 47% of sales. This is a simple test, not a prediction.
The last deep review estimated 12–18% yearly growth. That is useful history, but there is no current Idea, so we do not compare it with today's price. review saved Aug 13, 2026 · check date unavailable.
Complete SEC 13F filings only. These delayed reports show filed share amounts, not a manager’s full portfolio, intent, or a proven trade.
7 of 14 recent complete filings report ordinary shares. Compared with the prior report: 1 new positions, 1 with more shares, 5 with fewer shares, and 1 that no longer report it.
A large, repeated position can support a research story, but these filings arrive late and do not show an investor’s full portfolio or reason for owning the stock.
Look for the same investor to keep a meaningful position across several reports.
No numeric score or recommendation is made from these delayed filings. They are one piece of background evidence, not a buy or sell signal.
14 current complete filings of 16 tracked managers. 2 investors have only an older filing and are left out of this current view. Current holding dates span Mar 31, 2026 to Jun 30, 2026.
The SEC’s structured data establishes the total share count but carries no count of the shares structurally excluded from ordinary trading. Control and affiliate holdings, restricted stock and locked-up shares are disclosed publicly — in proxy statements, prospectuses and 8-Ks — as prose with no tag to read them from, and have not been researched into a figure this card can pair with the total above.
Share count decreased 0.10% — ownership slice improved: each remaining share owns a larger percentage of the company.
Both counts in full, exactly as each cover page printed them, and both bars measured from zero against the larger — so a small move looks small.
measured Dec 31, 2025, 8 months ago — from the 10-K filed Jul 29, 2026
Market value of shares held by non-affiliates under the SEC filing definition. This is a dollar amount, not a share count. It is never converted into one to fill the line above.
Not researched yet. Release dates, tranche sizes, the shares issued at IPO and the insider breakdown are prose in the prospectus and in 8-Ks, with no XBRL tag to read them from. They appear here once TickerYou research can quote the source clause behind each figure—never estimated in the meantime.
| (USD) | Q4 FY2026Quarter ended Jun 2026 | vs last year |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $90.01 B † | |
| Profit after costs | $35.77 B † | |
| Profit per share | 4.80 † | |
| Profit margin | 39.7% |
† derived: the fiscal year minus its three reported quarters — no 10-K reports a Q4 figure directly. For EPS this assumes per-share figures add across the year.
| Quarter | Revenue | Y/Y | Net income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 · Mar 2026 | $82.89 B | $31.78 B | 38.3% | |
| Q2 FY2026 · Dec 2025 | $81.27 B | $38.46 B | 47.3% | |
| Q1 FY2026 · Sep 2025 | $77.67 B | $27.75 B | 35.7% | |
| Jun 2025 | $76.44 B † | $27.23 B † | 35.6% | |
| Mar 2025 | $70.07 B | $25.82 B | 36.9% | |
| Dec 2024 | $69.63 B | $24.11 B | 34.6% | |
| Sep 2024 | $65.58 B | $24.67 B | 37.6% | |
| Jun 2024 | $64.73 B † | $22.04 B † | 34.0% |
The model: value the business in 3 years at 15× that year's operating income (the latest reported margin held constant), discount back at 10% a year, and solve for the revenue growth that makes it equal the quoted enterprise value. The three constants are fixed across every company — deliberately crude, so the figure means the same thing everywhere. It cannot price pre-profit names, ignores margin change and buybacks, and treats the exit multiple as settled; read it as a yardstick, not a valuation.
Mechanical sensitivity · not forecasts
≈46.9%/yr
at 10× exit
≈28.4%/yr
at 15× exit
≈16.6%/yr
at 20× exit
A lower exit value requires more growth. This range exposes how strongly the result depends on one assumption; it does not predict where the stock will trade.
MSFT is 15.3% of Pershing Square's disclosed portfolio ($2.09 B). Holdings as of Mar 31, 2026. Reported in 1 consecutive quarter.
MSFT is 3.5% of Tiger Global Management's disclosed portfolio ($845.60 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in all 6 quarters we can see.
MSFT is 1.1% of Bridgewater Associates's disclosed portfolio ($265.55 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in all 6 quarters we can see.
MSFT is 0.87% of Soros Fund Management's disclosed portfolio ($70.86 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in 5 consecutive quarters.
MSFT is 0.16% of Citadel Advisors's disclosed portfolio ($1.41 B). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in all 2 quarters we can see.
Market-neutral / multi-strategy: Citadel often reports shares, calls, and puts at the same time. These rows show reported exposure, not a simple bullish or bearish bet.
MSFT is 0.01% of ARK Investment Management's disclosed portfolio ($2.30 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in all 6 quarters we can see.
MSFT is 0.00% of Renaissance Technologies's disclosed portfolio ($2.24 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in all 6 quarters we can see.
Citadel Advisors (Ken Griffin) reports a PUT option ($6.33 B). The filing does not prove whether it is a bet or a hedge, so options never count as ordinary shares above.
Citadel Advisors (Ken Griffin) reports a CALL option ($9.70 B). The filing does not prove whether it is a bet or a hedge, so options never count as ordinary shares above.
2 newly or higher reported, 5 lower reported, 1 absent. Reported amounts only; corporate actions are not normalized.
Reported by 7 of 14 managers with a current filing; at least 0.5% of disclosed 13F value for 4.
Largest reported position: Pershing Square (Bill Ackman) at 15.3% of disclosed 13F value ($2.09 B).
Across 6 quarters of stored filings: 16 newly or higher comparisons, 21 lower or absent, 1 unchanged, across 10 managers. Corporate actions are not normalized.
No numeric score is shown: filing comparisons are not adjusted for splits or other corporate actions, so reported changes cannot be treated as trades.
13Fs can arrive up to 45 days after quarter end. They omit short positions, cash, and securities outside the SEC's 13(f) list. Higher, lower, new, and absent describe filed share amounts, not proven purchases or sales; splits and other corporate actions are not normalized. This is context for a thesis, never a call by itself.
Append-only company checks, newest evidence first. Evidence dates come from frozen research cutoffs; older rows without a cutoff are labelled by publication time instead. Multiple checks are preserved, never silently merged into one conclusion.
No eligible material thesis change. The 3m setup is still the expected October fiscal Q1 print; the 1y case remains high-quality cloud and AI compounding weighed against valuation and capex-return risk.
2026-10-28 (expected, not company-confirmed) after market for fiscal Q1 2027 earnings reporting date was forecast by Wall Street Horizon.
Checked Microsoft July 29 EDGAR 8-K for the latest eligible results filing.
Checked Microsoft July 29 EDGAR 10-K for annual-report baseline disclosures.
Checked Microsoft August 6 EDGAR Form 4 for recent insider ownership reporting.
Checked Microsoft September 1 responsible AI post for last-five-day fundamental news impact.
Not fundamental by itself: Microsoft described responsible-AI governance, tools and standards work, but the post did not quantify a new revenue, margin, competitive-position or balance-sheet effect.
source ↗No material change since the 2026-08-28 prior sweep. The 3m setup is the expected October Q1 print; the 1y case remains high-quality cloud and AI compounding balanced against valuation, AI disclosure opacity, and capex-return risk.
2026-10-28 (expected, not company-confirmed) after market for fiscal Q1 2027 earnings reporting date was forecast by Wall Street Horizon.
No material thesis change since the newest prior sweep. The 3m focus is the expected October Q1 print; the 1y case remains high-quality cloud and AI compounding balanced against valuation, disclosure opacity, and capex-return risk.
2026-10-28 (expected, not company-confirmed) after market for fiscal Q1 2027 earnings reporting date was forecast by Wall Street Horizon.
Evidence checked Aug 26, 2026 · 2 recorded assessments
No material change since the newest prior sweep at 2026-08-26T17:39:11.92+00:00. The 3m question is the expected October Q1 print; the 1y view remains high-quality cloud and AI compounding balanced against valuation and capex-return risk.
2026-10-28 (expected, not company-confirmed) earnings reporting date was forecast by Wall Street Horizon for Microsoft fiscal Q1 2027.
Evidence checked Aug 24, 2026 · 2 recorded assessments
No material change since the newest prior sweep. For 3m, the October 28 expected Q1 print is the key proof point; for 1y, MSFT remains a high-quality AI/cloud compounder with capex-return risk.
Checked MSFT next earnings calendar status for fiscal Q1 2027
Published Aug 19, 2026 · 2 recorded assessments
Best-in-class AI/cloud compounder: Azure growth in the low-40s%, a capacity-constrained backlog, and a restructured OpenAI deal that improves long-run margin optics. The open question is capital intensity — ~$190B FY2026 capex is a large bet on returns that won't be provable for several quarters. Own the franchise, watch the capex-to-Azure-growth ratio each print.
Checked Microsoft July 29 earnings 8-K directly on EDGAR for the latest results filing.
Checked Microsoft fiscal 2026 10-K directly on EDGAR for annual-report baseline.
Checked Microsoft August 6 Form 4 directly on EDGAR for recent insider ownership reporting.
Checked recent WSJ Microsoft AI disclosure article for material operating or capital-allocation change.
Not fundamental as a standalone operating update: the WSJ piece highlights disclosure opacity around Azure, AI capex, and OpenAI economics, but it does not report a new contract, guidance change, filing, or balance-sheet event.
source ↗Checked Microsoft July 29 earnings 8-K directly on EDGAR for the latest results filing.
Checked Microsoft fiscal 2026 10-K directly on EDGAR for annual-report baseline.
Checked recent WSJ Microsoft AI disclosure article for any material operating or capital-allocation change.
The article is relevant to disclosure quality around Azure and AI economics, but it is commentary on transparency rather than a new contract, guidance change, balance-sheet event, or operating result.
source ↗Checked Microsoft July 29 earnings 8-K directly on EDGAR for the latest results filing.
Checked Microsoft fiscal 2026 10-K directly on EDGAR for annual-report baseline.
No material change since the 2026-08-24 prior sweep. For 3m, the unconfirmed October Q1 print is the main proof point; for 1y, MSFT still looks like a high-quality cloud/AI compounder with valuation and capex-return risk.
2026-10-28 (expected, not company-confirmed) earnings reporting date was forecast by Wall Street Horizon and explicitly marked unconfirmed.
Checked Microsoft July 29 earnings 8-K directly on EDGAR for the latest results filing.
Checked Microsoft fiscal 2026 10-K directly on EDGAR for current annual-report baseline.
Checked Microsoft July 2026 earnings 8-K directly on EDGAR
Checked Microsoft fiscal 2026 10-K directly on EDGAR
No material change since the prior sweep: MSFT remains a high-quality 1y AI/cloud compounder, but the 3m setup depends on the October Q1 print proving Azure growth justifies heavy capex.
Checked MSFT next earnings estimate and latest earnings report context
Checked Microsoft July 29 earnings 8-K directly on SEC EDGAR
Checked Microsoft fiscal 2026 10-K directly on SEC EDGAR
Checked Microsoft AI news archive for recent company AI updates
Confirms AI/cloud demand is translating into revenue at scale; the ~$80B unfilled Azure backlog frames future growth as capacity-constrained rather than demand-constrained.
source ↗The capex step-up pressures near-term free cash flow and returns; the restructured OpenAI terms remove IP revenue-share drag and the AGI termination clause, reshaping the long-run margin and strategic profile.
source ↗MSFT executed definitively in FY2026: Azure $100B run rate, 43% cloud growth, 30M Copilot paid seats, 18% operating income growth. The 17% post-earnings re-rating suggests the prior three quarters of discounted beats are unwinding. Mid-August softness on AI capex margin fears is a known risk, not a new one. 1y horizon remains constructive — next print ~Oct 27.
Azure's acceleration to 43% growth and the $100B milestone confirm AI workload monetization is compounding at scale; 30M paid Copilot seats add recurring high-margin SaaS revenue on top of the infrastructure growth, strengthening the earnings flywheel.
source ↗Mid-August softness reflects market-level concern that AI capex will compress near-term margins — a real risk to watch, but Azure's 43% growth trajectory means revenue is absorbing capex faster than feared.
source ↗Routine quarterly dividend; not a change in earnings power or competitive position.
source ↗