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What we know about this company
A dated company review is availableNetflix, Inc.
Limited eligible change since the previous company check.
TickerYou is watching this company, but we are not currently recommending it. An earlier full review was positive 7/10, but that view is historical.
$77.40
last session
Price only · no current Idea
Quarterly results in 38 days · Oct 20 · Estimated date
This came from an earlier review. It is useful background, not a current Idea.
Netflix is the world's biggest online video service — you pay a monthly fee and watch as much as you want, and roughly 300 million households do. It makes money three ways: subscriptions (still almost all of it), a cheaper ad-supported plan that now has 250 million monthly viewers, and a small live-sports and events business. In the three months to June 2026 it took in $12.56 billion and earned $3.40 billion of profit, up from $3.13 billion a year earlier — this is a genuinely profitable business, not a growth story burning cash. The one thing that has to go right is the advertising business roughly doubling this year to about $3 billion and then continuing to scale as it launches in 15 more countries. The one thing that could go wrong is Paramount and HBO Max, now merged, spending aggressively on content to steal viewers, which would either slow Netflix's growth or force it to spend more to defend. The stock fell about 8% after the last earnings report because revenue was a hair light and the outlook was trimmed — not a broken thesis, but the easy years are ending.
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TickerYou is checking this company, but no active investment Idea is open.
That review was positive with 7/10 research strength. It is history, not a current Idea.
Read the newest company check below. New facts can update the research, but watching a company does not turn it into a recommendation.
Limited eligible change since the previous company check.
Limited eligible change since the newest prior sweep. The 3m focus remains the expected October Q3 print and evidence on ad monetization, pricing durability, content ROI and buyback execution.
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Earlier company review · Record saved Aug 13, 2026 · check date unavailable. The original research wording and date checks stay available inside.
These events and risks came from an earlier company review. There is no current Idea.
An event can change what investors believe. A risk shows how our research could be wrong.
Watch for a company announcement or filing that confirms or moves this date.
Expected from Netflix Earnings Date, Report, Conference Call, Forecasted Dates (NFLX) · Sep 1, 2026
Limited eligible change since the previous company check.
A company check updates what we know. It does not by itself turn this company into a current opportunity.
We rated 2 of 2 upcoming events. 0 are both likely and important.
2 older quarterly-results dates are hidden because a newer company check is shown above.
19 of 100 = chance 0.85 × effect 0.3 × date nearness 0.74.
24 of 100 = chance 0.55 × effect 0.6 × date nearness 0.74.
Computed by TickerYou from 1254 completed daily closing sessions supplied by Yahoo Finance, through Sep 10, 2026. The Sep 11, 2026 quote-session candle was excluded because a delayed feed cannot prove it was final. No company fundamentals enter this reading.
Shorter and longer price trends point in different directions, so there is no clear trend.
Price movement can help with timing and can warn when the market disagrees with our Idea. It does not tell us what the business is worth.
Watch whether the close and the 50-session average ($75.64) move to the same side of the 200-session average ($86.38).
Last closing price
$76.01
Sep 10, 2026
Average price over 20 trading days
$79.49
Close is 4.4% below this average
Average price over 50 trading days
$75.64
Close is 0.5% above this average
Average price over 200 trading days
$86.38
Close is 12.0% below this average
Recent price speed
43.6 · balanced
A 14-day speed reading; lower than 30 is low and higher than 70 is high
Is the trend speeding up?
Below signal
Shows whether the shorter trend is pulling ahead of or behind the longer one
The moving averages are simple averages over exactly 20, 50, and 200 daily trading sessions. RSI uses Wilder's 14-session smoothing; a flat series is neutral at 50. MACD uses 12- and 26-session exponential averages with a 9-session signal. A window is never shortened when history is missing. Every comparison uses the final dated daily close—not an intraday quote—so all figures share one observation boundary. A candle dated to an active delayed-quote session is excluded because it may still be changing. These are trend and momentum references, not a Buy/Sell score.
We keep the original wording so readers can check the record. Any figures below belong to that older review and are not current guidance.
Highest-quality asset in streaming, cleanly profitable, with a real second growth engine in advertising and a buyback about to resume — priced for the story to work rather than to surprise, and freshly de-rated after Q2. A hold-and-add-on-weakness name at ~$74, not a table-pounding buy today.
Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported — the label its release used and its consensus estimate was quoted against — and by the month that quarter ended, taken from the filer's own XBRL period boundaries. A fiscal year need not follow the calendar, so Apple's Q2 runs January to March; naming the quarter end keeps that true in both calendars, and no quarter number is ever inferred from a date. Quarterly financials beside this card names the same quarter the same way. TickerYou takes the figures from the release and its filing; every word, sign and percentage is calculated by the app from those stored numbers. A post-release reaction appears only with the stored first-close measurement stamp; otherwise the card says the window is not established and computes no divergence. EPS here is on the basis consensus quotes — adjusted for most US names — so it can legitimately differ from the GAAP figure in Quarterly financials. Rows marked [backfilled] were confirmed from archived coverage after the fact — a lower evidence tier than live capture, and labelled so.
Q2 FY2026 · Jun 2026: EPS beat the stored consensus estimate, while revenue missed the stored consensus estimate. No post-release price reaction is asserted because its stamped measurement window is not established.
A surprise shows how the release differed from expectations, not whether the business is good or the thesis is right. The price reaction shows repricing, not its cause.
Watch whether the next comparable release repairs the miss, and keep the operating result separate from the market reaction.
Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · Reported Jul 16, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Netflix posted GAAP diluted EPS of $0.80 (post-10-for-1-split basis) and revenue of $12.56B, a slight revenue miss; Q3 2026 guidance of $12.86B revenue and 33.2% operating margin came in below analyst expectations, sending shares down roughly 8–9% after hours despite the EPS beat.
Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · Reported Apr 16, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] The $2.8B Paramount-paid WBD termination fee (recorded in interest and other income) drove GAAP net income to $5.3B against an operational backdrop of 16% revenue growth; Q2 2026 guidance disappointed expectations and co-founder Reed Hastings announced his departure, sending shares down ~9% after hours.
Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 · Reported Jan 20, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Netflix beat on both EPS and revenue — paid subscribers crossed 325M, operating margin expanded to 24.5%, and full-year 2025 revenue hit $45.2B; the stock fell ~8% post-release because Q1 2026 EPS guidance of $0.76 came in roughly 6% below analyst expectations.
Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 · Reported Oct 21, 2025 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Revenue rose 17% YoY to $11.51B essentially in line with forecasts, but a one-time $619M Brazilian tax charge cut operating margin to 28% vs company guidance of 31.5%, entirely driving the EPS shortfall; Q4 revenue guidance implied ~17% growth and exceeded consensus.
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported and the month that quarter ended, through the same resolver the Earnings card beside this one uses; where no release established a fiscal label, the quarter is named by its end alone rather than by a quarter number guessed from the date. EPS is GAAP diluted, as filed, so it can legitimately differ from the adjusted figure in the Earnings card (consensus is quoted adjusted). Y/Y compares the same fiscal quarter a year earlier; a comparison that cannot be made honestly is an em-dash that says why.
Q2 FY2026 · Jun 2026: Revenue grew 13.4% year over year; net income grew 8.8% year over year; and net profit margin was 27.1%, down 1.1 percentage points.
Comparing the same fiscal quarter a year earlier controls for seasonality. Revenue direction and margin direction together show whether sales are translating into profit, but one quarter is evidence—not a complete thesis.
Watch whether the next comparable quarter restores margin; revenue growth with falling margin can be lower-quality growth.
| (USD) | Q2 FY2026Quarter ended Jun 2026 | vs last year |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.56 B | |
| Profit after costs | $3.40 B | |
| Profit per share | 0.80 | |
| Profit margin | 27.1% |
† derived: the fiscal year minus its three reported quarters — no 10-K reports a Q4 figure directly. For EPS this assumes per-share figures add across the year.
| Quarter | Revenue | Y/Y | Net income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 · Mar 2026 | $12.25 B | $5.28 B | 43.1% | |
| Q4 FY2025 · Dec 2025 | $12.05 B † | $2.42 B † | 20.1% | |
| Q3 FY2025 · Sep 2025 | $11.51 B | $2.55 B | 22.1% | |
| Jun 2025 | $11.08 B | $3.13 B | 28.2% | |
| Mar 2025 | $10.54 B | $2.89 B | 27.4% | |
| Dec 2024 | $10.25 B † | $1.87 B † | 18.2% | |
| Sep 2024 | $9.82 B | $2.36 B | 24.1% | |
| Jun 2024 | $9.56 B | $2.15 B | 22.5% |
Append-only company checks, newest evidence first. Evidence dates come from frozen research cutoffs; older rows without a cutoff are labelled by publication time instead. Multiple checks are preserved, never silently merged into one conclusion.
Limited eligible change since the newest prior sweep. The 3m focus remains the expected October Q3 print and evidence on ad monetization, pricing durability, content ROI and buyback execution.
2026-10-20 (expected, not company-confirmed) after market for Q3 2026 earnings reporting date was forecast by Wall Street Horizon.
Checked Netflix July 17 EDGAR 10-Q for quarterly filing baseline.
Checked Netflix July 22 EDGAR 8-K for debt and underwriting exhibit context.
Checked Netflix August 3 EDGAR Form 144 for insider sale notice context.
Checked Netflix August 4 EDGAR Form 4 for insider ownership reporting.
Not fundamental alone: the September content slate supports engagement monitoring, but one monthly programming update does not by itself change earnings power, competitive position or balance sheet.
source ↗Limited change since the 2026-08-28 prior sweep. The ad-product leadership change modestly raises 1y execution risk, while the 3m focus remains the expected October Q3 print and evidence on ad monetization, pricing durability, content ROI, and buybacks.
2026-10-20 (expected, not company-confirmed) after market for Q3 2026 earnings reporting date was forecast by Wall Street Horizon.
No confirmed material change since the newest prior sweep. The reported app-opening discussions remain uncommitted; the 3m and 1y read still turns on ad monetization, pricing durability, content ROI, and buybacks.
2026-10-20 (expected, not company-confirmed) after market for Q3 2026 earnings reporting date was forecast by Wall Street Horizon.
Evidence checked Aug 26, 2026 · 2 recorded assessments
No confirmed material change since the newest prior sweep at 2026-08-26T17:39:11.92+00:00. Recent ads updates remain incrementally supportive, while the app-opening report is uncommitted; 3m and 1y focus stays on ad monetization, pricing durability, content ROI, and buybacks.
2026-10-20 (expected, not company-confirmed) earnings reporting date was forecast by Wall Street Horizon for Netflix Q3 2026.
Evidence checked Aug 24, 2026 · 2 recorded assessments
Incrementally positive but not thesis-changing since the newest prior sweep: the ad stack and live inventory continue to mature. The 3m test remains the October Q3 print; 1y upside needs ad monetization and buybacks to compound without margin slippage.
Checked NFLX next earnings calendar status for Q3 2026
Published Aug 19, 2026 · 2 recorded assessments
Discipline is the story: passing on Warner Bros. keeps the balance sheet clean and doubles down on an organic ads-plus-live flywheel now scaling to ~250M ad MAUs and a ~$3B ad-revenue target. Recent $1B notes offering is refinancing, not leverage expansion. Thesis intact — advertising monetization pace and live-content ROI are the numbers to track into the October print.
Checked Netflix Tudum August 31 content slate for last-five-day news relevance.
Checked Netflix June-quarter 10-Q directly on EDGAR for quarterly filing baseline.
Checked Netflix July 22 8-K directly on EDGAR for debt and underwriting exhibit context.
Checked Netflix August 3 Form 144 directly on EDGAR for recent insider sale notice context.
Checked Netflix August 4 Form 4 directly on EDGAR for recent insider ownership reporting.
Checked Business Insider report on Netflix ads leadership change for ad-business execution risk.
Checked The Verge report on possible Netflix app opening to other streamers for platform-strategy impact.
Fundamental but modest: advertising is one of Netflix's main long-term growth levers, so replacing the ads product leader adds execution risk while the company is still building ad tech, buying channels, and new ad formats.
source ↗Not yet fundamental: the report describes internal discussions around Peacock and Fox One access in Netflix's app and says no imminent deal was planned, so it remains potential strategy rather than a committed revenue or competitive change.
source ↗Checked Netflix July 16 earnings 8-K directly on EDGAR for the latest results filing.
Checked Netflix June-quarter 10-Q directly on EDGAR for the latest quarterly filing baseline.
Checked Netflix July 22 8-K directly on EDGAR for debt and underwriting exhibit context.
Checked Netflix July 30 8-K directly on EDGAR for governance-event context.
Checked recent Netflix app-partnership report for possible distribution or competitive-position change.
Potentially relevant to distribution strategy because the report says Netflix discussed making Peacock and Fox One available in its app, but no imminent deal was reported, so it is not yet a confirmed earnings-power change.
source ↗Checked Netflix June quarter 10-Q directly on EDGAR for latest quarterly filing baseline.
Checked Netflix July 22 8-K directly on EDGAR for debt and underwriting exhibit context.
Checked Netflix app-partnership report for potential distribution or platform strategy change.
Checked Netflix company advertising update for ad technology and live-sports monetization progress.
Not fundamental yet because the report says there is no imminent deal and terms are unclear. It is worth monitoring because a real distribution or resale agreement could affect engagement, billing economics, and competitive positioning.
source ↗Fundamental, but incremental: Netflix is building ad tooling, measurement, and live-sports inventory that can support ad monetization and competitive differentiation over the 1y horizon.
source ↗No confirmed material change since the 2026-08-24 prior sweep. The reported app-partnership discussions are worth monitoring but remain uncommitted; the 3m and 1y case still turns on ad monetization, pricing durability, content ROI, and buybacks.
2026-10-20 (expected, not company-confirmed) earnings reporting date was forecast by Wall Street Horizon and explicitly marked unconfirmed.
Checked Netflix June quarter 10-Q directly on EDGAR for latest quarterly filing baseline.
Checked recent Netflix app-partnership report for possible distribution or competitive-position change.
Not fundamental yet: the opened report says discussions involved Peacock and Fox One, but also says no imminent deal is planned, so it does not currently change earnings power or competitive position.
source ↗Checked Netflix June quarter 10-Q directly on EDGAR
Checked Netflix recent advertising-business update from company newsroom
Fundamental, but modestly so: it adds evidence that Netflix is building advertising tools and live-sports inventory as a second monetization engine, though the release is regional and not enough by itself to change the 1y view.
source ↗Little fundamental change since the prior sweep: NFLX still depends on ad-tier monetization and disciplined capital allocation, with the October 20 expected Q3 print the next real 3m test.
Checked NFLX next earnings date and status from a live earnings-calendar source
Checked Netflix Q2 earnings 8-K directly on SEC EDGAR
Checked Netflix June quarter 10-Q directly on SEC EDGAR
Checked Netflix July senior notes 8-K directly on SEC EDGAR
Checked Netflix July 30 governance 8-K directly on SEC EDGAR
Checked Netflix newsroom for recent official content and business news
Content slate and renewals can support engagement, but this item does not by itself change earnings power, competitive position, or the balance sheet.
source ↗A major capital-allocation decision — avoids a large, dilutive acquisition and reaffirms an organic, high-margin growth path centered on advertising and live events; changes the competitive and balance-sheet trajectory.
source ↗Advertising is becoming a material, higher-incremental-margin revenue stream (~25% of incremental revenue), expanding earnings power beyond subscription pricing.
source ↗NFLX is dislocated: down ~41-46% from highs on guidance cut and metric opacity, but Q2 revenue still grew 13%, ad revenue nearly doubled YoY, management is executing a record buyback, and the $1B July debt raise was a clean refinancing. Ackman's return adds credibility to the long. The thesis resolves on Oct 20 Q3 print — 1y asymmetric if revenue recovers toward the prior trajectory.
A record buyback at multi-year lows is a material capital allocation event — management is retiring shares at depressed prices, which is a strong insider signal about intrinsic value if the buyback pace is accelerating.
source ↗Ackman exited NFLX at a significant loss in 2022; his return at current depressed levels is a notable external validation of the long thesis, though it reflects investor sentiment rather than a direct change to Netflix's earnings power.
source ↗Two simultaneous misses — revenue guidance and EPS guidance — combined with pulling engagement metrics created a transparency discount on top of the growth slowdown concern; this is the root driver of the ~41-46% drawdown and the core risk to resolve by Q3.
source ↗Complete SEC 13F filings only. These delayed reports show filed share amounts, not a manager’s full portfolio, intent, or a proven trade.
4 of 14 recent complete filings report ordinary shares. Compared with the prior report: 3 with more shares, 1 with fewer shares, and 2 that no longer report it.
A large, repeated position can support a research story, but these filings arrive late and do not show an investor’s full portfolio or reason for owning the stock.
Look for the same investor to keep a meaningful position across several reports.
No numeric score or recommendation is made from these delayed filings. They are one piece of background evidence, not a buy or sell signal.
14 current complete filings of 16 tracked managers. 2 investors have only an older filing and are left out of this current view. Current holding dates span Mar 31, 2026 to Jun 30, 2026.
NFLX is 0.67% of Renaissance Technologies's disclosed portfolio ($484.66 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in all 6 quarters we can see.
NFLX is 0.10% of ARK Investment Management's disclosed portfolio ($16.06 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in 3 consecutive quarters.
NFLX is 0.07% of Citadel Advisors's disclosed portfolio ($631.33 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in all 2 quarters we can see.
Market-neutral / multi-strategy: Citadel often reports shares, calls, and puts at the same time. These rows show reported exposure, not a simple bullish or bearish bet.
NFLX is 0.04% of Soros Fund Management's disclosed portfolio ($3.32 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in 2 consecutive quarters.
Citadel Advisors (Ken Griffin) reports a PUT option ($2.15 B). The filing does not prove whether it is a bet or a hedge, so options never count as ordinary shares above.
Citadel Advisors (Ken Griffin) reports a CALL option ($2.25 B). The filing does not prove whether it is a bet or a hedge, so options never count as ordinary shares above.
3 newly or higher reported, 1 lower reported, 2 absent. Reported amounts only; corporate actions are not normalized.
Reported by 4 of 14 managers with a current filing; at least 0.5% of disclosed 13F value for 1.
Largest reported position: Renaissance Technologies at 0.67% of disclosed 13F value ($484.66 M).
Across 6 quarters of stored filings: 12 newly or higher comparisons, 7 lower or absent, 1 unchanged, across 6 managers. Corporate actions are not normalized.
No numeric score is shown: filing comparisons are not adjusted for splits or other corporate actions, so reported changes cannot be treated as trades.
13Fs can arrive up to 45 days after quarter end. They omit short positions, cash, and securities outside the SEC's 13(f) list. Higher, lower, new, and absent describe filed share amounts, not proven purchases or sales; splits and other corporate actions are not normalized. This is context for a thesis, never a call by itself.
1M
3M
6M
1Y
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Blank means it cannot be computed honestly.
Revenue grew 16.0% versus the comparable filing period; operating margin was 29.7%; and free cash flow margin was 23.1%.
Revenue shows whether demand is expanding, while operating and free-cash-flow margins show how much of those sales becomes profit and cash. Net cash or debt affects how resilient that result is.
Watch whether future free cash flow reduces net debt while growth and margins hold.
Every figure comes from an SEC filing and carries the day it was measured. Nothing here is estimated.
A year-over-year share-count conclusion is not established: not comparable — the count grew too much to read as supply.
Without two comparable filed counts, the app cannot say whether existing owners gained or lost percentage ownership.
Watch for two comparable filing cover pages before interpreting dilution or ownership-slice change.
4.16 B
total shares when last reported · Jun 30, 2026 · 2 months ago
Three checks use SEC filings alone. The net-buyback check requires matching stated filing and quote currencies, a compatible single-ticker SEC share-unit receipt, and a dated provider quote; its row explains any refusal. One dated deep-review judgement is marked researched; missing checks are excluded, never treated as zero.
A score requires both core checks — what the share count did and pay in stock versus revenue — plus at least one other established check. Missing core check: what the share count did.
A company can grow while each shareholder owns a smaller slice. Share issuance and stock pay can offset part of the business gain.
Establish the missing core check first; other unestablished checks: buybacks net of new stock sold.
not comparable — the count grew too much to read as supply
Employees were paid $487.33M in stock against $48.37B of revenue — 1.0% — in the year through 2026-06-30.
the two sides cover different periods
The deep review’s dated judgement (published Aug 13, 2026; evidence cutoff unavailable): how much of a 1% ownership slice at that review could survive through its horizon.
49.90 B shares authorized against 4.16 B outstanding on 2026-06-30, from the same 10-Q filed 2026-07-17 and the same single-listing share basis — 12.0× headroom. The weakest signal here: roomy charters are usually housekeeping.
review saved Aug 13, 2026 · check date unavailable
Netflix has one class of stock, one vote per share, and insiders own roughly 1% of the company — normal for a large-cap where founders have distributed stock over 25 years. The important pattern is the buyback: Netflix repurchased about $9.1B of its own shares in 2025, up from $6.2B in 2024, meaningfully shrinking the count and lifting per-share earnings. That program was paused in early 2026 to keep cash available for the failed Warner Bros. bid, and is expected to restart in the second half of 2026 now that the deal is off. Stock-based pay is modest relative to the $7-9B of free cash flow the business generates each year, and there is no shelf-registration overhang or convertible note that could quietly add shares. For a long-term owner, the slice you own today is more likely to grow than to shrink.
A conditional model using SEC filings and a delayed-market quote from Yahoo Finance for the Sep 11, 2026 session. It is not a market forecast or analyst consensus.
At today’s price, this simple model needs sales to grow about 26% each year for three years.
A high number means the company must grow quickly to justify today's price. A low number gives the business more room to disappoint.
Watch sales growth and operating profit. If either changes, this required-growth number can change too.
At today's price, the whole operating business is valued at $325B after debt and cash. Under this simple model, the price only adds up if sales grow ≈26% a year for the next 3 years while operating profit stays near 30% of sales. This is a simple test, not a prediction.
The last deep review estimated 9–14% yearly growth. That is useful history, but there is no current Idea, so we do not compare it with today's price. review saved Aug 13, 2026 · check date unavailable.
The SEC’s structured data establishes the total share count but carries no count of the shares structurally excluded from ordinary trading. Control and affiliate holdings, restricted stock and locked-up shares are disclosed publicly — in proxy statements, prospectuses and 8-Ks — as prose with no tag to read them from, and have not been researched into a figure this card can pair with the total above.
— not comparable — the count grew too much to read as supply
Both counts in full, exactly as each cover page printed them, and both bars measured from zero against the larger — so a small move looks small.
measured Jun 30, 2025, 14 months ago — from the 10-K filed Jan 23, 2026
Market value of shares held by non-affiliates under the SEC filing definition. This is a dollar amount, not a share count. It is never converted into one to fill the line above.
Not researched yet. Release dates, tranche sizes, the shares issued at IPO and the insider breakdown are prose in the prospectus and in 8-Ks, with no XBRL tag to read them from. They appear here once TickerYou research can quote the source clause behind each figure—never estimated in the meantime.
The model: value the business in 3 years at 15× that year's operating income (the latest reported margin held constant), discount back at 10% a year, and solve for the revenue growth that makes it equal the quoted enterprise value. The three constants are fixed across every company — deliberately crude, so the figure means the same thing everywhere. It cannot price pre-profit names, ignores margin change and buybacks, and treats the exit multiple as settled; read it as a yardstick, not a valuation.
Mechanical sensitivity · not forecasts
≈44.4%/yr
at 10× exit
≈26.2%/yr
at 15× exit
≈14.6%/yr
at 20× exit
A lower exit value requires more growth. This range exposes how strongly the result depends on one assumption; it does not predict where the stock will trade.