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What we know about this company
Open this Idea →ServiceNow, Inc.
View: price may rise
our belief 8/10 · confidence score 79/100
Our longer-term business view, not a prediction for this week.
May rise over the next year. Open for the simple explanation.
Why we are waiting
The latest research review is too old and needs an update.
Next check: Complete a new dated research review.
The idea was last reviewed 10 days ago. The limit is 5 days. Q3 subscription growth, net-new ACV, renewal durability, and AI-driven seat erosion remain unresolved. Then update the item listed below.
ServiceNow was repriced from ~$195 to ~$127 (5:1-split-adjusted) inside the 2026 'SaaSpocalypse' — the fear that AI agents make seat-based enterprise software obsolete. Its own numbers refute the bear case: Q2 2026 subscription revenue grew 24.5% in constant currency, the company raised full-year subscription guidance to ~$15.77B (~21% cc), gross renewals held near 98%, and AI (Now Assist) ACV crossed $1B with net-new AI ACV accelerating >40% sequentially. Rather than a victim, NOW is positioning as the AI governance/orchestration layer that makes AI deployable in the enterprise — AI is a tailwind, not a threat. At ~28x forward earnings for a Rule-of-55+ franchise near its own multi-year-low multiple, the market is pricing decay into a business that is still compounding. The gap closes as successive prints show sustained 20%+ growth and AI monetization, forcing the multiple back toward quality-software norms. This is saved analyst research, not a ready conclusion.
The research view is strong at 8/10, but this Idea is still being checked. It is not a current opportunity until every required fact is complete.
View unchanged Sep 2, 2026 · research strength 8/10 — full saved wording is in the research history
$132.53
last session
Quarterly results in 46 days · Oct 28 · Date not confirmed
ServiceNow sells software that big companies use to run their internal machinery — the IT help desk, employee requests, customer service, and security tasks — all on one system that ties everything together. It makes real money: last quarter it took in about $3.99 billion, almost all of it repeating subscriptions, and it throws off cash equal to about 35 cents of every dollar of sales. Customers almost never leave (about 98% renew). The stock fell hard, from roughly $195 to about $119, because investors got scared that AI 'agents' will replace the human workers whose seats ServiceNow charges for. The thing that has to go right: ServiceNow keeps growing 20%+ and turns AI into a new paid product — and so far it is, with AI sales crossing $1 billion and growing fast. The thing that could go wrong: companies cut staff and buy fewer seats, AI eats into the model faster than the company adds new revenue, and a still-expensive stock keeps falling even as the business holds up.
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Checking the newest complete filings from the large investors we follow. The rest of this page is ready while these delayed reports load.
No company checks yet for NOW.
The open Idea research history is on the idea page.
A company check will appear here after the next scheduled review.
1 check left
Current active Idea · Record saved Aug 19, 2026 · check date unavailable. The original research wording and date checks stay available inside.
These events and risks belong to TickerYou’s current Idea.
An event can change what investors believe. A risk shows how our research could be wrong.
Watch for a company announcement or filing that confirms or moves this date.
We rated 2 of 2 upcoming events. 0 are both likely and important.
51 of 100 = chance 0.85 × effect 0.6 × date nearness 1.00.
35 of 100 = chance 0.85 × effect 0.6 × date nearness 0.68.
Computed by TickerYou from 1254 completed daily closing sessions supplied by Yahoo Finance, through Sep 10, 2026. The Sep 11, 2026 quote-session candle was excluded because a delayed feed cannot prove it was final. No company fundamentals enter this reading.
The price has been trending up across both the medium and longer term.
Price movement can help with timing and can warn when the market disagrees with our Idea. It does not tell us what the business is worth.
Watch whether the close holds above the 50-session average at $119.00; the 200-session average at $118.13 is the slower reference.
Last closing price
$131.17
Sep 10, 2026
Average price over 20 trading days
$132.44
Close is 1.0% below this average
Average price over 50 trading days
$119.00
Close is 10.2% above this average
Average price over 200 trading days
$118.13
Close is 11.0% above this average
Recent price speed
51.6 · balanced
A 14-day speed reading; lower than 30 is low and higher than 70 is high
Is the trend speeding up?
Below signal
Shows whether the shorter trend is pulling ahead of or behind the longer one
The moving averages are simple averages over exactly 20, 50, and 200 daily trading sessions. RSI uses Wilder's 14-session smoothing; a flat series is neutral at 50. MACD uses 12- and 26-session exponential averages with a 9-session signal. A window is never shortened when history is missing. Every comparison uses the final dated daily close—not an intraday quote—so all figures share one observation boundary. A candle dated to an active delayed-quote session is excluded because it may still be changing. These are trend and momentum references, not a Buy/Sell score.
Complete SEC 13F filings only. These delayed reports show filed share amounts, not a manager’s full portfolio, intent, or a proven trade.
4 of 14 recent complete filings report ordinary shares. Compared with the prior report: 1 new positions, 1 with more shares, 2 with fewer shares, and 1 that no longer report it.
A large, repeated position can support a research story, but these filings arrive late and do not show an investor’s full portfolio or reason for owning the stock.
Look for the same investor to keep a meaningful position across several reports.
No numeric score or recommendation is made from these delayed filings. They are one piece of background evidence, not a buy or sell signal.
14 current complete filings of 16 tracked managers. 2 investors have only an older filing and are left out of this current view. Current holding dates span Mar 31, 2026 to Jun 30, 2026.
NOW is 0.36% of Tiger Global Management's disclosed portfolio ($86.72 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in all 6 quarters we can see.
NOW is 0.26% of Bridgewater Associates's disclosed portfolio ($63.08 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in 1 consecutive quarter.
NOW is 0.06% of Soros Fund Management's disclosed portfolio ($4.82 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in 2 consecutive quarters.
NOW is 0.05% of Citadel Advisors's disclosed portfolio ($426.80 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in all 2 quarters we can see.
Market-neutral / multi-strategy: Citadel often reports shares, calls, and puts at the same time. These rows show reported exposure, not a simple bullish or bearish bet.
Citadel Advisors (Ken Griffin) reports a CALL option ($788.38 M). The filing does not prove whether it is a bet or a hedge, so options never count as ordinary shares above.
Citadel Advisors (Ken Griffin) reports a PUT option ($601.56 M). The filing does not prove whether it is a bet or a hedge, so options never count as ordinary shares above.
2 newly or higher reported, 2 lower reported, 1 absent. Reported amounts only; corporate actions are not normalized.
Reported by 4 of 14 managers with a current filing; at least 0.5% of disclosed 13F value for 0.
Largest reported position: Tiger Global Management at 0.36% of disclosed 13F value ($86.72 M).
Across 6 quarters of stored filings: 7 newly or higher comparisons, 10 lower or absent, 1 unchanged, across 5 managers. Corporate actions are not normalized.
No numeric score is shown: filing comparisons are not adjusted for splits or other corporate actions, so reported changes cannot be treated as trades.
13Fs can arrive up to 45 days after quarter end. They omit short positions, cash, and securities outside the SEC's 13(f) list. Higher, lower, new, and absent describe filed share amounts, not proven purchases or sales; splits and other corporate actions are not normalized. This is context for a thesis, never a call by itself.
TickerYou has not saved a quarterly report for this company yet. We show nothing instead of guessing.
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported and the month that quarter ended, through the same resolver the Earnings card beside this one uses; where no release established a fiscal label, the quarter is named by its end alone rather than by a quarter number guessed from the date. EPS is GAAP diluted, as filed, so it can legitimately differ from the adjusted figure in the Earnings card (consensus is quoted adjusted). Y/Y compares the same fiscal quarter a year earlier; a comparison that cannot be made honestly is an em-dash that says why.
Jun 2026: Revenue grew 24.0% year over year; net income fell 22.6% year over year; and net profit margin was 7.5%, down 4.5 percentage points.
Comparing the same fiscal quarter a year earlier controls for seasonality. Revenue direction and margin direction together show whether sales are translating into profit, but one quarter is evidence—not a complete thesis.
Watch whether the next comparable quarter restores margin; revenue growth with falling margin can be lower-quality growth.
| (USD) | Jun 2026 | vs last year |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.99 B | |
| Profit after costs | $298.00 M | |
| Profit per share | 0.29 | |
| Profit margin | 7.5% |
† derived: the fiscal year minus its three reported quarters — no 10-K reports a Q4 figure directly. For EPS this assumes per-share figures add across the year.
| Quarter | Revenue | Y/Y | Net income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | $3.77 B | $469.00 M | 12.4% | |
| Dec 2025 | $3.57 B † | $401.00 M † | 11.2% | |
| Sep 2025 |
| $3.41 B |
| $502.00 M |
| 14.7% |
| Jun 2025 | $3.21 B | $385.00 M | 12.0% |
| Mar 2025 | $3.09 B | $460.00 M | 14.9% |
| Dec 2024 | $2.96 B † | $384.00 M † | 13.0% |
| Sep 2024 | $2.80 B | $432.00 M | 15.4% |
| Jun 2024 | $2.63 B | $262.00 M | 10.0% |
1M
3M
6M
1Y
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Blank means it cannot be computed honestly.
Revenue grew 22.2% versus the comparable filing period, while operating margin was 11.4%.
Revenue shows whether demand is expanding, while operating and free-cash-flow margins show how much of those sales becomes profit and cash. Net cash or debt affects how resilient that result is.
Watch whether future free cash flow reduces net debt while growth and margins hold.
Every figure comes from an SEC filing and carries the day it was measured. Nothing here is estimated.
A year-over-year share-count conclusion is not established: not comparable — the count grew too much to read as supply.
Without two comparable filed counts, the app cannot say whether existing owners gained or lost percentage ownership.
Watch for two comparable filing cover pages before interpreting dilution or ownership-slice change.
1.03 B
total shares when last reported · Jun 30, 2026 · 2 months ago
Three checks use SEC filings alone. The net-buyback check requires matching stated filing and quote currencies, a compatible single-ticker SEC share-unit receipt, and a dated provider quote; its row explains any refusal. One dated deep-review judgement is marked researched; missing checks are excluded, never treated as zero.
A score requires both core checks — what the share count did and pay in stock versus revenue — plus at least one other established check. Missing core checks: what the share count did; pay in stock, vs revenue.
A company can grow while each shareholder owns a smaller slice. Share issuance and stock pay can offset part of the business gain.
Establish the missing core checks first; other unestablished checks: buybacks net of new stock sold.
not comparable — the count grew too much to read as supply
the two figures cover different periods, and a ratio across mismatched periods would be invented
the two sides cover different periods
The deep review’s dated judgement (published Aug 20, 2026; evidence cutoff unavailable): how much of a 1% ownership slice at that review could survive through its horizon.
3.00 B shares authorized against 1.03 B outstanding on 2026-06-30, from the same 10-Q filed 2026-07-23 and the same single-listing share basis — 2.9× headroom. The weakest signal here: roomy charters are usually housekeeping.
review saved Aug 20, 2026 · check date unavailable
Insiders own very little — roughly 0.14% of the company, with founder Fred Luddy holding most of that and CEO Bill McDermott a stake worth only about $22M against a ~$125B company (Business Quant / SEC Form 4s). So this is run by professional managers, not big owner-operators. The company pays employees heavily in stock, which quietly creates new shares and is the main reason its bottom-line profit looks small next to its cash flow. But it is buying stock back aggressively to offset that: the board added $5B to the buyback in January 2026 on top of $1.4B left over, and it bought back about 20 million shares in one quarter, saying plainly the goal is to control dilution (ServiceNow newsroom). Share count is roughly flat near 1.05 billion, and with a 35% cash margin it never needs to sell new shares to fund itself. Your slice should hold.
A conditional model using SEC filings and a delayed-market quote from Yahoo Finance for the Sep 11, 2026 session. It is not a market forecast or analyst consensus.
At today’s price, this simple model needs sales to grow about 95% each year for three years.
A high number means the company must grow quickly to justify today's price. A low number gives the business more room to disappoint.
Watch sales growth and operating profit. If either changes, this required-growth number can change too.
At today's price, the whole operating business is valued at $140B after debt and cash. Under this simple model, the price only adds up if sales grow ≈95% a year for the next 3 years while operating profit stays near 11% of sales. This is a simple test, not a prediction.
The last deep review estimated 14–21% yearly growth, but the current Idea is still being checked. We do not compare that older estimate with today's price until every required fact is complete. review saved Aug 20, 2026 · check date unavailable.
The SEC’s structured data establishes the total share count but carries no count of the shares structurally excluded from ordinary trading. Control and affiliate holdings, restricted stock and locked-up shares are disclosed publicly — in proxy statements, prospectuses and 8-Ks — as prose with no tag to read them from, and have not been researched into a figure this card can pair with the total above.
— not comparable — the count grew too much to read as supply
Both counts in full, exactly as each cover page printed them, and both bars measured from zero against the larger — so a small move looks small.
measured Jun 30, 2025, 14 months ago — from the 10-K filed Jan 29, 2026
Market value of shares held by non-affiliates under the SEC filing definition. This is a dollar amount, not a share count. It is never converted into one to fill the line above.
Not researched yet. Release dates, tranche sizes, the shares issued at IPO and the insider breakdown are prose in the prospectus and in 8-Ks, with no XBRL tag to read them from. They appear here once TickerYou research can quote the source clause behind each figure—never estimated in the meantime.
The model: value the business in 3 years at 15× that year's operating income (the latest reported margin held constant), discount back at 10% a year, and solve for the revenue growth that makes it equal the quoted enterprise value. The three constants are fixed across every company — deliberately crude, so the figure means the same thing everywhere. It cannot price pre-profit names, ignores margin change and buybacks, and treats the exit multiple as settled; read it as a yardstick, not a valuation.
Mechanical sensitivity · not forecasts
≈123.0%/yr
at 10× exit
≈94.8%/yr
at 15× exit
≈77.0%/yr
at 20× exit
A lower exit value requires more growth. This range exposes how strongly the result depends on one assumption; it does not predict where the stock will trade.