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What we know about this company
Open this Idea →Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.
View: price may rise
our belief 8/10 · confidence score 71/100
Our longer-term business view, not a prediction for this week.
May rise over the next year. Open for the simple explanation.
Why we are waiting
The latest research review is too old and needs an update.
Next check: Complete a new dated research review.
The idea was last reviewed 10 days ago. The limit is 5 days. UX111 FDA action, GTX-102 efficacy and safety, GENGLYCOS access, and cash burn remain unresolved. Then update the item listed below.
Long RARE on a 1-year fundamentals rerating. The market is still pricing Ultragenyx as a high-burn rare-disease pipeline, but the company has a real commercial base, reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $730 million to $760 million, and a stated 2027 profitability path. The gap can close if the September 2026 UX111 PDUFA and September/October GTX-102 Aspire readout keep the pipeline converting while GENGLYCOS begins to show access and launch execution. The thesis is not that every catalyst must work; it is that the existing revenue base plus one successful late-stage conversion supports a materially higher value than the current mid-$20s share price. This is saved analyst research, not a ready conclusion.
The research view is strong at 8/10, but this Idea is still being checked. It is not a current opportunity until every required fact is complete.
View unchanged Sep 2, 2026 · research strength 8/10 — full saved wording is in the research history
$14.30
last session
Important event in 7 days · Sep 19 · Date not confirmed
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The open Idea research history is on the idea page.
A company check will appear here after the next scheduled review.
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Current active Idea · Information checked Aug 24, 2026. The original research wording and date checks stay available inside.
These events and risks belong to TickerYou’s current Idea.
An event can change what investors believe. A risk shows how our research could be wrong.
Watch for a company announcement or filing that confirms or moves this date.
We rated 3 of 3 upcoming events. 0 are both likely and important.
51 of 100 = chance 0.85 × effect 0.6 × date nearness 1.00.
The date is not clear enough to calculate nearness.
33 of 100 = chance 0.55 × effect 0.6 × date nearness 1.00.
Computed by TickerYou from 1254 completed daily closing sessions supplied by Yahoo Finance, through Sep 10, 2026. The Sep 11, 2026 quote-session candle was excluded because a delayed feed cannot prove it was final. No company fundamentals enter this reading.
Shorter and longer price trends point in different directions, so there is no clear trend.
Price movement can help with timing and can warn when the market disagrees with our Idea. It does not tell us what the business is worth.
Watch whether the close and the 50-session average ($26.69) move to the same side of the 200-session average ($25.74).
Last closing price
$14.40
Sep 10, 2026
Average price over 20 trading days
$23.18
Close is 37.9% below this average
Average price over 50 trading days
$26.69
Close is 46.0% below this average
Average price over 200 trading days
$25.74
Close is 44.0% below this average
Recent price speed
20.4 · low
A 14-day speed reading; lower than 30 is low and higher than 70 is high
Is the trend speeding up?
Below signal
Shows whether the shorter trend is pulling ahead of or behind the longer one
The moving averages are simple averages over exactly 20, 50, and 200 daily trading sessions. RSI uses Wilder's 14-session smoothing; a flat series is neutral at 50. MACD uses 12- and 26-session exponential averages with a 9-session signal. A window is never shortened when history is missing. Every comparison uses the final dated daily close—not an intraday quote—so all figures share one observation boundary. A candle dated to an active delayed-quote session is excluded because it may still be changing. These are trend and momentum references, not a Buy/Sell score.
1M
3M
6M
1Y
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Blank means it cannot be computed honestly.
Aligned filings do not yet establish comparable revenue growth, operating margin, or free cash flow margin.
Revenue shows whether demand is expanding, while operating and free-cash-flow margins show how much of those sales becomes profit and cash. Net cash or debt affects how resilient that result is.
Watch the next aligned filing for comparable growth, margin, and cash-conversion evidence.
Every figure comes from an SEC filing and carries the day it was measured. Nothing here is estimated.
A year-over-year share-count conclusion is not established: could not be checked just now.
Without two comparable filed counts, the app cannot say whether existing owners gained or lost percentage ownership.
Watch for two comparable filing cover pages before interpreting dilution or ownership-slice change.
Total share count — not known yet
could not be checked just now
The request for this filer's cover-page share count did not reach the SEC — a rate limit, a server error, or a dropped connection on our side. That is a failure of ours and carries no information about the company: it is NOT evidence that the filer does not report the figure. The number is withheld rather than guessed, and returns on the next successful load.
No bar is drawn: with no total share count there is nothing to draw a proportion of.
could not be checked just now
TickerYou has not saved a quarterly report for this company yet. We show nothing instead of guessing.
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported and the month that quarter ended, through the same resolver the Earnings card beside this one uses; where no release established a fiscal label, the quarter is named by its end alone rather than by a quarter number guessed from the date. EPS is GAAP diluted, as filed, so it can legitimately differ from the adjusted figure in the Earnings card (consensus is quoted adjusted). Y/Y compares the same fiscal quarter a year earlier; a comparison that cannot be made honestly is an em-dash that says why.
Jun 2026: the filing establishes the quarter, but comparable year-ago growth and margin are not established.
Comparing the same fiscal quarter a year earlier controls for seasonality. Revenue direction and margin direction together show whether sales are translating into profit, but one quarter is evidence—not a complete thesis.
Watch for the next filing that supplies a same-quarter comparison rather than substituting an older period.
| (USD) | Jun 2026 | vs last year |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — |
| Profit after costs | $-92.00 M | — |
| Profit per share | -0.90 | — |
| Profit margin | — | — |
† derived: the fiscal year minus its three reported quarters — no 10-K reports a Q4 figure directly. For EPS this assumes per-share figures add across the year.
| Quarter | Revenue | Y/Y | Net income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | — | — | $-185.00 M | — |
| Dec 2025 | — | — | $-128.59 M † | — |
| Sep 2025 |
Complete SEC 13F filings only. These delayed reports show filed share amounts, not a manager’s full portfolio, intent, or a proven trade.
None of the 14 recent complete filings checked reports clearly identified ordinary shares.
A large, repeated position can support a research story, but these filings arrive late and do not show an investor’s full portfolio or reason for owning the stock.
Look for the same investor to keep a meaningful position across several reports.
No numeric score or recommendation is made from these delayed filings. They are one piece of background evidence, not a buy or sell signal.
14 current complete filings of 16 tracked managers. 2 investors have only an older filing and are left out of this current view. Current holding dates span Mar 31, 2026 to Jun 30, 2026.
Not researched yet. Release dates, tranche sizes, the shares issued at IPO and the insider breakdown are prose in the prospectus and in 8-Ks, with no XBRL tag to read them from. They appear here once TickerYou research can quote the source clause behind each figure—never estimated in the meantime.
| — |
| — |
| $-180.41 M |
| — |
| Jun 2025 | — | — | $-115.00 M | — |
| Mar 2025 | — | — | $-151.00 M | — |
| Dec 2024 | — | — | $-133.20 M † | — |
| Sep 2024 | — | — | $-133.52 M | — |
| Jun 2024 | — | — | $-131.60 M | — |
No tracked manager reports verified common shares in any of the 14 current complete filings. Absence is not a verdict: these filings show only part of a portfolio.
13Fs can arrive up to 45 days after quarter end. They omit short positions, cash, and securities outside the SEC's 13(f) list. Higher, lower, new, and absent describe filed share amounts, not proven purchases or sales; splits and other corporate actions are not normalized. This is context for a thesis, never a call by itself.