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What we know about this company
Open this Idea →Savara Inc.
Watching · below 8/10
our belief 7/10 · confidence score 67/100
Our longer-term business view, not a prediction for this week.
May rise over the next year. Open for the simple explanation.
Why we are waiting
Our belief is below the 8/10 level needed for a strong Idea.
Next check: Keep it in background research until our belief reaches 8/10.
Research conviction is below the 8/10 level needed for a high-conviction idea. Whether FDA approves Molbreevi on or before November 22, 2026 and whether launch capital avoids dilution.
The research view is still too uncertain at 7/10 to treat this as a current opportunity.
View unchanged Sep 2, 2026 · research strength 7/10 — full saved wording is in the research history
$5.30
last session
Important event in 71 days · Nov 22 · Date not confirmed
Savara is a small drug company with basically one product that is not approved yet. That drug, Molbreevi, is a mist you breathe in to treat a rare lung disease called aPAP, where gunk builds up in the lungs. Right now the only real treatment is a surgery-like lung wash under anesthesia, so an inhaled medicine would be a big step forward — and it would be the first drug the FDA has ever approved for this disease. The company makes no money today and lost about $40 million last quarter. It has roughly $173 million in the bank, enough into late 2027. The one thing that has to go right: the FDA has to approve the drug on November 22, 2026. The one thing that could go wrong: if the FDA says no, the stock likely falls by half or more, because almost all its value rests on this single decision. Even if approved, the company will probably sell more shares to pay for the launch, which shrinks what existing owners hold.
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Aug 20, 2026
At 7/10 this is below the 8/10 level required to publish it as a strong Idea. The research is still saved:
A genuinely de-risked, first-in-class orphan drug at a fair-not-cheap price, gated by one binary FDA date on Nov 22, 2026. Long-worthy on the merits but speculative: size it as a single-catalyst regulatory bet, not a core holding, and respect the dilution and CRL downside.
No company checks yet for SVRA.
The open Idea research history is on the idea page.
A company check will appear here after the next scheduled review.
1 check left
Current active Idea · Record saved Aug 11, 2026 · check date unavailable. The original research wording and date checks stay available inside.
These events and risks belong to TickerYou’s current Idea.
An event can change what investors believe. A risk shows how our research could be wrong.
Watch for a company announcement or filing that confirms or moves this date.
Computed by TickerYou from 1254 completed daily closing sessions supplied by Yahoo Finance, through Sep 10, 2026. The Sep 11, 2026 quote-session candle was excluded because a delayed feed cannot prove it was final. No company fundamentals enter this reading.
Shorter and longer price trends point in different directions, so there is no clear trend.
Price movement can help with timing and can warn when the market disagrees with our Idea. It does not tell us what the business is worth.
Watch whether the close and the 50-session average ($5.61) move to the same side of the 200-session average ($5.60).
Last closing price
$5.32
Sep 10, 2026
Average price over 20 trading days
$5.44
Close is 2.2% below this average
Average price over 50 trading days
$5.61
Close is 5.2% below this average
Average price over 200 trading days
$5.60
Close is 5.0% below this average
Recent price speed
44.5 · balanced
A 14-day speed reading; lower than 30 is low and higher than 70 is high
Is the trend speeding up?
Below signal
Shows whether the shorter trend is pulling ahead of or behind the longer one
The moving averages are simple averages over exactly 20, 50, and 200 daily trading sessions. RSI uses Wilder's 14-session smoothing; a flat series is neutral at 50. MACD uses 12- and 26-session exponential averages with a 9-session signal. A window is never shortened when history is missing. Every comparison uses the final dated daily close—not an intraday quote—so all figures share one observation boundary. A candle dated to an active delayed-quote session is excluded because it may still be changing. These are trend and momentum references, not a Buy/Sell score.
Three checks use SEC filings alone. The net-buyback check requires matching stated filing and quote currencies, a compatible single-ticker SEC share-unit receipt, and a dated provider quote; its row explains any refusal. One dated deep-review judgement is marked researched; missing checks are excluded, never treated as zero.
A score requires both core checks — what the share count did and pay in stock versus revenue — plus at least one other established check. Missing core check: pay in stock, vs revenue.
A company can grow while each shareholder owns a smaller slice. Share issuance and stock pay can offset part of the business gain.
Establish the missing core check first; other unestablished checks: buybacks net of new stock sold; room left under the charter.
+18.9% between the 2025-08-13 and 2026-08-11 filing cover pages.
the two figures cover different periods, and a ratio across mismatched periods would be invented
repurchases are untagged — and missing is not zero, so no net can be computed
The deep review’s dated judgement (published Aug 20, 2026; evidence cutoff unavailable): how much of a 1% ownership slice at that review could survive through its horizon.
authorized shares are measured on 2026-06-30 while outstanding shares are measured on 2026-08-11; different dates cannot establish current headroom
review saved Aug 20, 2026 · check date unavailable
Insiders — mostly venture backers tied to NEA (Mathers, Behbahani, Makhzoumi, each a ~10% holder) — own roughly 45% of the company, so management and founders are aligned but the register is concentrated. The pattern here is funding the business by selling shares, not buying them back: Savara recently raised about $149.5M in stock plus a $75M royalty deal, and just asked holders to double authorized shares from 300M to 600M and add ~18.9M shares to its pay plan. It pays staff heavily in stock while building a sales team. Even with up to $150M of non-dilutive cash promised on approval, expect more shares to fund a launch. Plainly: your slice is likely to get smaller over the next year or two, which caps upside and adds risk if the ramp is slow.
1M
3M
6M
1Y
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Blank means it cannot be computed honestly.
Aligned filings do not yet establish comparable revenue growth, operating margin, or free cash flow margin.
Revenue shows whether demand is expanding, while operating and free-cash-flow margins show how much of those sales becomes profit and cash. Net cash or debt affects how resilient that result is.
Watch the next aligned filing for comparable growth, margin, and cash-conversion evidence.
Every figure comes from an SEC filing and carries the day it was measured. Nothing here is estimated.
The filed share count increased 18.88% over roughly a year. That is dilution: each existing share represents a smaller percentage ownership slice.
A growing business can still deliver weak per-share progress when the share count grows too. The count says what happened to ownership slices, not why the company issued shares.
Watch the next filing cover page and the cash-flow and stock-compensation disclosures to see whether issuance continues and what caused it.
205.46 M
total shares when last reported · Aug 11, 2026 · 32 days ago
TickerYou has not saved a quarterly report for this company yet. We show nothing instead of guessing.
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported and the month that quarter ended, through the same resolver the Earnings card beside this one uses; where no release established a fiscal label, the quarter is named by its end alone rather than by a quarter number guessed from the date. EPS is GAAP diluted, as filed, so it can legitimately differ from the adjusted figure in the Earnings card (consensus is quoted adjusted). Y/Y compares the same fiscal quarter a year earlier; a comparison that cannot be made honestly is an em-dash that says why.
Jun 2026: the filing establishes the quarter, but comparable year-ago growth and margin are not established.
Comparing the same fiscal quarter a year earlier controls for seasonality. Revenue direction and margin direction together show whether sales are translating into profit, but one quarter is evidence—not a complete thesis.
Watch for the next filing that supplies a same-quarter comparison rather than substituting an older period.
| (USD) | Jun 2026 | vs last year |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — |
| Profit after costs | $-40.23 M | — |
| Profit per share | -0.16 | — |
| Profit margin | — | — |
† derived: the fiscal year minus its three reported quarters — no 10-K reports a Q4 figure directly. For EPS this assumes per-share figures add across the year.
| Quarter | Revenue | Y/Y | Net income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | — | — | $-37.28 M | — |
| Dec 2025 | — | — | $-32.24 M † | — |
| Sep 2025 |
The SEC’s structured data establishes the total share count but carries no count of the shares structurally excluded from ordinary trading. Control and affiliate holdings, restricted stock and locked-up shares are disclosed publicly — in proxy statements, prospectuses and 8-Ks — as prose with no tag to read them from, and have not been researched into a figure this card can pair with the total above.
Share count increased 18.88% — dilution risk: each existing share owns a smaller percentage of the company.
Both counts in full, exactly as each cover page printed them, and both bars measured from zero against the larger — so a small move looks small.
measured Jun 30, 2025, 14 months ago — from the 10-K filed Mar 13, 2026
Market value of shares held by non-affiliates under the SEC filing definition. This is a dollar amount, not a share count. It is never converted into one to fill the line above.
Not researched yet. Release dates, tranche sizes, the shares issued at IPO and the insider breakdown are prose in the prospectus and in 8-Ks, with no XBRL tag to read them from. They appear here once TickerYou research can quote the source clause behind each figure—never estimated in the meantime.
| — |
| — |
| $-29.56 M |
| — |
| Jun 2025 | — | — | $-30.40 M | — |
| Mar 2025 | — | — | $-26.64 M | — |
| Dec 2024 | — | — | $-29.04 M † | — |
| Sep 2024 | — | — | $-24.25 M | — |
| Jun 2024 | — | — | $-22.24 M | — |
Complete SEC 13F filings only. These delayed reports show filed share amounts, not a manager’s full portfolio, intent, or a proven trade.
2 of 14 recent complete filings report ordinary shares. Compared with the prior report: 2 with fewer shares.
A large, repeated position can support a research story, but these filings arrive late and do not show an investor’s full portfolio or reason for owning the stock.
Look for the same investor to keep a meaningful position across several reports.
No numeric score or recommendation is made from these delayed filings. They are one piece of background evidence, not a buy or sell signal.
14 current complete filings of 16 tracked managers. 2 investors have only an older filing and are left out of this current view. Current holding dates span Mar 31, 2026 to Jun 30, 2026.
SVRA is 0.00% of Renaissance Technologies's disclosed portfolio ($1.53 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in 4 consecutive quarters.
SVRA is 0.00% of Citadel Advisors's disclosed portfolio ($1.61 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in all 2 quarters we can see.
Market-neutral / multi-strategy: Citadel often reports shares, calls, and puts at the same time. These rows show reported exposure, not a simple bullish or bearish bet.
Citadel Advisors (Ken Griffin) reports a CALL option ($217.45 K). The filing does not prove whether it is a bet or a hedge, so options never count as ordinary shares above.
Citadel Advisors (Ken Griffin) reports a PUT option ($256.87 K). The filing does not prove whether it is a bet or a hedge, so options never count as ordinary shares above.
2 lower reported. Reported amounts only; corporate actions are not normalized.
Reported by 2 of 14 managers with a current filing; at least 0.5% of disclosed 13F value for 0.
Largest reported position: Renaissance Technologies at 0.00% of disclosed 13F value ($1.53 M).
Across 4 quarters of stored filings: 3 newly or higher comparisons, 2 lower or absent, 0 unchanged, across 2 managers. Corporate actions are not normalized.
No numeric score is shown: filing comparisons are not adjusted for splits or other corporate actions, so reported changes cannot be treated as trades.
13Fs can arrive up to 45 days after quarter end. They omit short positions, cash, and securities outside the SEC's 13(f) list. Higher, lower, new, and absent describe filed share amounts, not proven purchases or sales; splits and other corporate actions are not normalized. This is context for a thesis, never a call by itself.