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Strong idea · still checking
Nextpower Inc.
Expected time 1 year is when we expect the main question to be answered. Full holding time 9-15 months is the longest the idea may stay open if the facts still support it.
Reviewed Sep 2, 2026
Long NXT on a 1-year horizon because the last eligible close of $86.18 prices in a severe solar policy and tariff overhang while the company is still reporting record quarterly revenue, high adjusted EBITDA margin, more than $5.5 billion of backlog, over $1.2 billion of cash, and raised FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance.
Long NXT on a 1-year horizon because the last eligible close of $86.18 prices in a severe solar policy and tariff overhang while the company is still reporting record quarterly revenue, high adjusted EBITDA margin, more than $5.5 billion of backlog, over $1.2 billion of cash, and raised FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance. The gap closes if Q2 FY2027 confirms backlog conversion and the market separates Nextpower's profitable tracker, eBOS, storage and power-conversion platform from weaker solar manufacturers directly exposed to module economics.
Expected holding period: 9-15 months
These are TickerYou's own possible outcomes—not Wall Street targets or copied internet forecasts. Lower is what may happen if important facts disappoint, middle is our main working case, and higher is what may happen if things go better than expected. These are checks for the research, not promises.
We will check this set through 6-12 months. The expected holding period (9-15 months) is the broader time we may follow the Idea, so the two dates do not need to match. We show longer-term estimates only when the supporting business and price assumptions are written down.
Where these numbers came from. Published Aug 24, 2026 against $84.13 using a saved Yahoo Finance price as of Aug 24, 2026.
| Time frame | Check by | Lower case | Middle case | Higher case | Source strength | What happened |
|---|
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Checked through Sep 2, 2026
Each source says whether it supports the idea, challenges it, or adds background. A quick no-change check may update the review date without replacing these sources.
Nextpower reported Q1 FY2027 revenue of $935 million, adjusted EBITDA of $233 million, adjusted EBITDA margin of 24.9%, backlog above $5.5 billion, cash and equivalents of $1.214 billion, and FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $870-$930 million.
Nextpower Reports Q1 Fiscal Year 2027 Financial Results (investors.nextpower.com)Nextpower's Form 10-Q disclosed OBBBA, FEOC, Section 45X, 48E and 45Y tax-credit uncertainty, including possible demand reduction, higher costs, competitiveness pressure, and risk that policy changes materially harm results.
Nextpower Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended July 3, 2026 (sec.gov)We rated 2 of 2 upcoming events. 0 are both likely and important.
51 of 100 = chance 0.85 × effect 0.6 × date nearness 1.00.
The date is not clear enough to calculate nearness.
Checks are shown newest first. Repeated copies are folded together on screen, while every saved record remains unchanged.
Previously we believed NXT's profitable backlog conversion and raised FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance could overcome solar policy and tariff discounting. Searches found no cutoff-eligible dated development after 2026-08-30; reopened July/August primary sources confirm the raised outlook and balance sheet, while the same filing keeps policy, FEOC, tariff and customer-project timing risk unresolved.
We previously believed NXT could rerate if FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance held above the $800 million invalidation level and backlog converted despite solar policy and tariff overhang. Searches found no material dated development after 2026-08-28; reopened primary sources still show Q1 FY2027 revenue of $935 million, adjusted EBITDA of $233 million, backlog above $5.5 billion, cash of $1.214 billion, and FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $870-$930 million. The invalidation trigger has not fired, though tariff, FEOC and tax-credit uncertainty still matter.
1 check left
Reopened 2026-07-30 and 2026-08-03 primary sources confirm record Q1 FY2027 results, more than $5.5 billion backlog, cash, guidance, and policy-risk disclosures.
Q2 FY2027 backlog conversion, FEOC implementation, tariff pass-through, project timing, and acquisition integration remain unresolved.
No ready estimate is issued while checks are missing. The $108.00 research scenario remains below for context, without possible-move or sizing language.
OBBBA, FEOC, 45X, 48E and 45Y tax-credit changes may reduce customer project economics, lower future project volume, or raise Nextpower's cost structure.
Nextpower cuts FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance below $800 million in a 2026 earnings release.
| 1-3 monthsShort-term scenario | 2026-10-26 | $70.00 | $98.00 | $115.00 | medium evidence confidence | Open window |
| 3-6 monthsMedium-term scenario | 2027-02-28 | $65.00 | $108.00 | $130.00 | medium evidence confidence | Open window |
| 6-12 monthsLong-term scenario | 2027-08-24 | $60.00 | $120.00 | $145.00 | medium evidence confidence | Open window |
These are TickerYou's possible outcomes from the latest saved research. Source strength tells you how solid the supporting information is. It is not a chance of success or a recommendation score. These ranges stay visible as research, but we hide the comparison with today’s price until every required check is complete. We check every price range against what happened when its time frame ends—including the ones we got wrong.
Kept as the original record. These do not replace the current sources above.
Three checks come from TickerYou's research review. The app calculates the other three from dated prices, events, and sources. Each check keeps its published weight on every idea; the app never changes a weight to make an idea look better.
How strongly the research engine believes the thesis is right, judged 1-10. This pass judged it 8 out of 10.
Whether the price being paid helps or hurts, judged 1-10: 10 means you are paid to take the risk, 1 means the thesis must be right and the multiple must expand. This pass judged it 7 out of 10.
How contained the damage is if the thesis is wrong, judged 1-10: 10 means a real floor of assets or cash, 1 means a permanent loss. This pass judged it 7 out of 10.
The clearest catalyst still ahead opens in 40 days, on a single dated day (1 other date could not be read).
Price is -30.7% over the last 63 trading sessions — moving against it for this long view.
2 dated claim receipts average 10 out of 10 from explicit source tiers 1, 1; roles: 1 support, 1 challenge, 0 context. Roles establish claim linkage; only the stored tiers set reliability.
This confidence score of 71 out of 100 is the weighted average of the 6 ready checks above, on their 0-10 scales, adjusted to 100.
Previously we believed NXT should rerate if FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance held and backlog conversion offset policy and tariff pressure. Live searches found no material cutoff-eligible post-review guidance cut or execution break; reopened primary sources still show $870-$930 million FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance and backlog above $5.5 billion, while the 10-Q keeps tariff and renewable-policy risks live. The thesis is confirmed but not improved; October Q2 FY2027 conversion remains the next hard test.
Previously we believed NXT should rerate if FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance stayed well above the invalidation level and backlog converted despite policy risk. Current searches found no cutoff-eligible post-review guidance cut or thesis break; the reopened July 30 company release remains the usable primary baseline. This confirmed the view without changing conviction; Q2 FY2027 remains the next test.
Previously we owned NXT for FY2027 EBITDA and backlog conversion despite policy risk. This run found no cutoff-eligible post-review guidance cut; the reopened July 30 release still shows FY2027 adjusted EBITDA at $870-$930 million and backlog above $5.5 billion, while the August 3 10-Q keeps OBBBA, FEOC and tariff risks live. The repaired evidence base leaves the thesis intact, with Q2 conversion and tax/tariff implementation unresolved.
We previously believed NXT was a 1-year long if FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance stayed well above the $800 million invalidation line and backlog converted. A live search found no eligible post-review dated development before the cutoff; the reopened July 30, 2026 company release remains the newest primary baseline I found for the trigger and still shows FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $870-$930 million, revenue of $935 million and backlog above $5.5 billion. This confirms rather than strengthens the view, and the unresolved issue is whether Q2 FY2027 converts backlog without margin pressure.
Opened by the energy hunt.
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TickerYou has not saved a quarterly report for this company yet. We show nothing instead of guessing.
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported and the month that quarter ended, through the same resolver the Earnings card beside this one uses; where no release established a fiscal label, the quarter is named by its end alone rather than by a quarter number guessed from the date. EPS is GAAP diluted, as filed, so it can legitimately differ from the adjusted figure in the Earnings card (consensus is quoted adjusted). Y/Y compares the same fiscal quarter a year earlier; a comparison that cannot be made honestly is an em-dash that says why.
Jul 2026: Revenue grew 8.2% year over year; net income grew 5.2% year over year; and net profit margin was 17.7%, down 0.5 percentage points.
Comparing the same fiscal quarter a year earlier controls for seasonality. Revenue direction and margin direction together show whether sales are translating into profit, but one quarter is evidence—not a complete thesis.
Watch whether the next comparable quarter restores margin; revenue growth with falling margin can be lower-quality growth.
| (USD) | Jul 2026 | vs last year |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $935.17 M | |
| Profit after costs | $165.35 M | |
| Profit per share | 1.07 | |
| Profit margin | 17.7% |
† derived: the fiscal year minus its three reported quarters — no 10-K reports a Q4 figure directly. For EPS this assumes per-share figures add across the year.
| Quarter | Revenue | Y/Y | Net income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | $880.52 M † | $150.60 M † | 17.1% | |
| Dec 2025 | $909.35 M | $131.24 M | 14.4% | |
| Sep 2025 |
| $905.27 M |
| $146.86 M |
| 16.2% |
| Jun 2025 | $864.25 M | $157.18 M | 18.2% |
| Mar 2025 | $924.34 M † | $164.87 M † | 17.8% |
| Dec 2024 | $679.36 M | $115.28 M | 17.0% |
| Sep 2024 | $635.57 M | $115.39 M | 18.2% |
| Jun 2024 | $719.92 M | $121.70 M | 16.9% |