Loading page
Strong idea · still checking
International Seaways, Inc.
International Seaways is a pure-play owner and operator of oceangoing crude oil and refined-product tankers, one of the largest US-listed tanker companies.
Expected time 3 months is when we expect the main question to be answered. Full holding time 12-18 months is the longest the idea may stay open if the facts still support it.
Reviewed Sep 2, 2026
International Seaways owns about 70 oil tankers and rents them out to move crude oil and fuel around the world. It makes real money today: last quarter (Q2 2026) it earned $295 million in profit on $467 million of revenue and paid owners a $5.05-per-share dividend — one of the biggest payouts of any US stock. The reason profits are so high is that sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil force tankers to sail longer routes, so ships are scarce and daily rental rates are near record highs. The company barely uses debt and holds about $935 million of cash and credit, so it is in no danger of trouble. The one thing that has to keep going right: tanker rates must stay high. The one thing that could go wrong: those rates always eventually fall, and the dividend falls with them — and the stock has already more than doubled to about $100, above what the company's ships are worth on paper, so buyers today are paying up right as the cycle looks late.
Expected holding period: 12-18 months
These are TickerYou's own possible outcomes—not Wall Street targets or copied internet forecasts. Lower is what may happen if important facts disappoint, middle is our main working case, and higher is what may happen if things go better than expected. These are checks for the research, not promises.
We will check this set through 12 months. The expected holding period (12-18 months) is the broader time we may follow the Idea, so the two dates do not need to match. We show longer-term estimates only when the supporting business and price assumptions are written down.
Where these numbers came from. Published Aug 27, 2026 against $100.01 using a saved Yahoo Finance price as of Aug 27, 2026.
Why we updated it: Targets are issued only to repair the target_not_forward refresh requirement. I kept bases above the supplied review price of 100.03, used the open tanker-rate payout driver, and held confidence lower at longer horizons because no forecast_scorecard horizon has resolved and the refreshed evidence still shows rate-cycle cyclicality.
| Time frame |
|---|
Loading company facts
Loading reported-quarter evidence
Checked through Aug 28, 2026
Each source says whether it supports the idea, challenges it, or adds background. A quick no-change check may update the review date without replacing these sources.
International Seaways reported record Q2 net income of $295 million, record adjusted EBITDA of $345 million, a $5.05 September dividend, and $12.61 of declared dividends over the last twelve months.
International Seaways Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (intlseas.com)The Signal Group reported TD3C at about $481,000 per day as of August 6, 2026, far above the roughly $35,000 per day invalidation threshold.
Weekly Tanker Market Monitor: Week 32 2026 (thesignalgroup.com)Checks are shown newest first. Repeated copies are folded together on screen, while every saved record remains unchanged.
We previously believed International Seaways needed elevated tanker rates to support the variable dividend and avoid a sustained TD3c break below the invalidation level. Current searches checked INSW results, TD3c-rate, dividend-cut, payout-policy and tanker-market categories; no material post-review change was found. Q3 realized spot earnings and the next payout declaration remain unresolved.
Prior view was that INSW's variable payout remains supported unless benchmark tanker rates break below the invalidation level. Searches for a TD3C collapse, dividend cut, and payout-policy change found no material post-review break; reopened tanker and company sources still leave Q3 realized rates and the next dividend as the unresolved tests.
1 check left
International Seaways is a pure-play crude and product tanker owner whose policy is to return at least 85% of adjusted net income to shareholders. Q2 2026 EPS was $5.91 (beat), and trailing-twelve-month declared dividends of $12.61/share equate to roughly a 21% yield, alongside a fresh $50M buyback. The crude tanker cycle is running hot for structural, not speculative, reasons: sanctions on Russian barrels have rerouted flows onto longer voyages, extending tonne-miles; late-2025 VLCC earnings peaked above $100,000/day and rates sit ~60% above the 10-year average, with the Cal-2026 TD3c FFA around $71,000/day. The market applies a deep discount to NAV and to the variable dividend because it assumes rates mean-revert, but as long as rerouting persists, the payout plus buyback should drive total return well above where the multiple implies.
Checked INSW company results, TD3c-rate, dividend-cut, payout-policy and tanker-market categories; no material post-review change was found.
Whether Q3 realized spot earnings and the next variable dividend declaration show the cycle is durable rather than temporary.
No ready estimate is issued while checks are missing. The $112.00 research scenario remains below for context, without possible-move or sizing language.
Tanker spot rates are highly volatile; OPEC+ output cuts or an easing of Russia sanctions would shorten voyages and crash rates and the variable dividend
Benchmark VLCC spot rates (TD3c) fall and stay below roughly $35,000/day, indicating the rate cycle has rolled over and the variable dividend is set to collapse.
| Check by |
|---|
| Lower case |
|---|
| Middle case |
|---|
| Higher case |
|---|
| Source strength |
|---|
| What happened |
|---|
| 3 monthsShort-term scenario | 2026-11-27 | $88.00 | $108.00 | $122.00 | medium evidence confidence | Open window |
| 6 monthsMedium-term scenario | 2027-02-27 | $80.00 | $112.00 | $135.00 | medium evidence confidence | Open window |
| 12 monthsLong-term scenario | 2027-08-27 | $70.00 | $118.00 | $150.00 | low evidence confidence | Open window |
These are TickerYou's possible outcomes from the latest saved research. Source strength tells you how solid the supporting information is. It is not a chance of success or a recommendation score. These ranges stay visible as research, but we hide the comparison with today’s price until every required check is complete. We check every price range against what happened when its time frame ends—including the ones we got wrong.
Kept as the original record. These do not replace the current sources above.
Three checks come from TickerYou's research review. The app calculates the other three from dated prices, events, and sources. Each check keeps its published weight on every idea; the app never changes a weight to make an idea look better.
How strongly the research engine believes the thesis is right, judged 1-10. This pass judged it 8 out of 10.
Whether the price being paid helps or hurts, judged 1-10: 10 means you are paid to take the risk, 1 means the thesis must be right and the multiple must expand. This pass judged it 7 out of 10.
How contained the damage is if the thesis is wrong, judged 1-10: 10 means a real floor of assets or cash, 1 means a permanent loss. This pass judged it 5 out of 10.
The clearest catalyst still ahead opens in 50 days, over a window 10 days wide.
Price is +25.5% over the last 63 trading sessions — moving with the thesis for this long view.
2 dated claim receipts average 7.5 out of 10 from explicit source tiers 1, 3; roles: 2 support, 0 challenge, 0 context. Roles establish claim linkage; only the stored tiers set reliability.
This confidence score of 76 out of 100 is the weighted average of the 6 ready checks above, on their 0-10 scales, adjusted to 100.
We previously believed INSW needed elevated tanker rates to keep the variable payout thesis alive, with sustained TD3c below about $35,000/day as the break. Reopened company results confirm the record Q2 dividend and payout policy execution, while a market source showed TD3C around $481k/day on Aug. 6, far above the invalidation level. Nothing after the Aug. 27 review changed the thesis; Q3 rates and the next dividend remain the open tests.
We previously believed INSW's long thesis depended on elevated tanker rates converting into variable dividends and buybacks, with TD3c sustained below about $35,000/day as the break signal. I found no cutoff-eligible post-review company filing, release, or rate source that showed that trigger firing. Reopened primary Aug. 10 company/SEC sources still show record Q2 cash generation, the $5.05 September dividend, high liquidity, and covenant compliance; the Aug. 26 tanker-market source shows TD3C and period VLCC rates far above the trigger, while also warning the spike is tied to security conditions and can reprice quickly. That confirms the thesis but leaves the durability of Q3 spot earnings and the next variable dividend unresolved.
Prior belief was that INSW needed elevated tanker earnings to support its variable dividend, with a sustained TD3c fall below about $35,000/day as the break signal. Since the last review, current searches found no cutoff-eligible rate-collapse or dividend-cut source; the Aug. 10 company and SEC releases confirm record Q2 earnings, payout, and liquidity. The view is confirmed, with Q3 spot earnings still unresolved.
Previously we believed INSW's 3-month thesis required tanker rates to stay far above the TD3c danger zone and support variable dividends. I found no eligible post-Aug. 24 evidence that TD3c fell below the trigger or that the payout was cut; the Aug. 10 company release shows record Q2 net income, a $5.05 dividend and an 85% payout policy, while the Aug. 7 market monitor shows TD3C around $481k/day as of Aug. 6. The thesis is confirmed, though rate sustainability and orderbook normalization remain unresolved.
We previously believed INSW's 3m thesis depended on elevated tanker rates feeding variable dividends and buybacks, with a sustained TD3c fall below roughly $35,000/day as the invalidation signal. This review found no cutoff-eligible post-review evidence that rates broke the floor or that capital returns weakened. The opened company source shows record Q2 results and a $5.05 dividend, while the opened tanker monitor shows TD3C around $481k/day on Aug. 6, far above the trigger. The unresolved issue is whether rates stay elevated through the Q3 dividend-setting period.
We previously believed International Seaways remained a 3-month tanker-cycle income thesis unless TD3c rates collapsed below about $35,000/day. This run found current tanker-market evidence still far above that floor and the company’s Q2 source still shows record earnings, a record $5.05 dividend, and the 85% payout framework intact. The price move has been favorable, but the Q3 earnings and next variable dividend remain ahead, so the thesis is not fully graded yet.
Q2 2026 (Aug 10) posted record $295M adjusted net income and the largest dividend in company history at $5.05/share (payout ≥85% for a third straight quarter); booked VLCC spot ~$118,300/day sits far above the ~$35,000/day invalidation floor, so the rerouting-driven rate cycle is still running hot. Trigger dormant, thesis intact; conviction unchanged with the Q3 print still ahead in the 3m window.
Q2 2026 record results (reported August 10, incorporated in the thesis at open): $295M adjusted net income, $5.91 EPS, $5.05/share quarterly dividend — the largest in company history — on blended spot TCE of $79,000/day and VLCC rates of $118,300/day. New data from the August 17 earnings call: Q3 forward bookings cover 48% of expected revenue days at a blended spot TCE of ~$61,000/day, a step down from Q2's peak but still roughly 75% above the $35,000/day invalidation trigger. Geopolitical disruptions (Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb) continue to be cited as the structural driver of elevated tonne-mile demand. $935M liquidity, 6% net LTV. Invalidation trigger has not triggered. Stock up 11.8% since rec.
Q2 2026 EPS of $5.91 beat the $5.52 consensus. On August 7, 2026, the board declared a record Q3 dividend of $5.05/share — the largest quarterly dividend in company history — confirming the 85%-payout policy is intact. VLCC TD3C spot rates are assessed at approximately WS475.56 (~$481,000/day round-trip TCE) in August 2026 — more than 13 times the $35,000/day invalidation threshold. For Q3 2026, ~48% of expected revenue days are already booked at ~$61,000/day blended TCE, still well above the trigger. Thesis is tracking ahead of expectations; invalidation trigger has not fired.
Labelled an affirm while conviction moved 7 → 8 — the stored action label and the recorded move disagree. Treat this as a changed conviction; the historical row remains visible as written.
Record Q2 2026: net income $295M, adjusted EBITDA $345M, EPS $5.91 beat. Q2 blended spot TCE reached $79,000/day (vs $27,500/day a year ago). Company declared its largest-ever quarterly dividend of $5.05/share payable September 2026, reflecting the 85%-payout policy in full force. Q3 2026 forward bookings: ~48% of revenue days booked at ~$61,000/day blended spot TCE—well above the $35,000/day invalidation threshold. TD3C rates in Week 32 2026 (early August) remained elevated. Thesis outperforming.
Labelled an affirm while conviction moved 6 → 7 — the stored action label and the recorded move disagree. Treat this as a changed conviction; the historical row remains visible as written.
Record Q2 2026 (reported early August 2026): net income $295M, FCF $261M, EPS $5.91 beat $5.52 consensus; revenue $467.29M vs $401.77M expected, +139% YoY. Largest quarterly dividend in company history declared at $5.05/share, payable Sept 24, 2026 — third consecutive quarter at ≥85% payout of adjusted net income. VLCC rates remain far above the $35K/day invalidation trigger: TD3c peaked above $420K/day in March 2026 and stayed elevated through Q2. All thesis pillars (elevated rates, record earnings, large dividend) are delivering ahead of expectations; bumping conviction to 7.
Q2 2026 was a record quarter: adjusted net income $295M, adjusted EBITDA $345M, free cash flow $261M, all records. Declared largest-ever quarterly dividend of $5.05/share to be paid September 2026, maintaining the >85% adjusted net income payout policy. Q3 2026 has ~48% of revenue days already booked at a blended spot TCE of ~$61,000/day — well above the $35,000/day invalidation trigger. VLCC rates hit $100,000+/day earlier in 2026 and have moderated but remain firmly elevated. Invalidation trigger has NOT fired.
Q2 2026 record results: net income $295M, revenue $467M (+139% YoY), adjusted EPS $5.91 (beat $5.52 consensus). Blended spot TCE reached $79,000/day (vs $27,500/day a year ago). The quarterly dividend declared at $5.05/share (record, payable Sept 24). Q3 2026 early bookings: 48% of expected revenue days at a blended spot TCE of ~$61,000/day — well above the $35,000/day invalidation threshold. VLCC rates remain elevated; no signal of cycle roll-over. Thesis intact.
Opened by the broad hunt.
Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported — the label its release used and its consensus estimate was quoted against — and by the month that quarter ended, taken from the filer's own XBRL period boundaries. A fiscal year need not follow the calendar, so Apple's Q2 runs January to March; naming the quarter end keeps that true in both calendars, and no quarter number is ever inferred from a date. Quarterly financials beside this card names the same quarter the same way. TickerYou takes the figures from the release and its filing; every word, sign and percentage is calculated by the app from those stored numbers. A post-release reaction appears only with the stored first-close measurement stamp; otherwise the card says the window is not established and computes no divergence. EPS here is on the basis consensus quotes — adjusted for most US names — so it can legitimately differ from the GAAP figure in Quarterly financials. Rows marked [backfilled] were confirmed from archived coverage after the fact — a lower evidence tier than live capture, and labelled so.
Q2 FY2026 · Jun 2026: EPS beat the stored consensus estimate, while revenue beat the stored consensus estimate. The first stamped post-release close moved down 2.2%.
A surprise shows how the release differed from expectations, not whether the business is good or the thesis is right. The price reaction shows repricing, not its cause.
Watch whether the next comparable release confirms the result; one beat or market move does not establish a durable trend.
Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · Reported Aug 10, 2026 · post-release reaction · muted · 1.2× typical
Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · Reported May 7, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Record quarter driven by surging crude and product tanker spot rates — adjusted net income of $194M quadrupled year-over-year, adjusted EBITDA hit $244M, and the company declared its largest-ever combined quarterly dividend of $4.55/share; management flagged Strait of Hormuz volatility as a near-term uncertainty but said underlying market fundamentals remain favorable.
Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 · Reported Feb 26, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Adjusted diluted EPS of $2.45 cleared consensus by $0.51 and revenue of $267.9M exceeded estimates by ~7%; the company declared its largest-ever quarterly dividend of $2.15/share, topping $1B in cumulative shareholder returns since 2020.
Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 · Reported Nov 6, 2025 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Adjusted EBITDA of $108M came in ahead of estimates driven by stronger tanker rates; fleet renewal accelerated with two LR1 newbuild deliveries and five older-vessel sales, $250M unsecured bond issuance lifted total liquidity to $985M, and a combined dividend of $0.86/share was declared for December payment.
Quarter ended Jun 30, 2025 · Reported Aug 6, 2025 · stock move after results · not shown
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported and the month that quarter ended, through the same resolver the Earnings card beside this one uses; where no release established a fiscal label, the quarter is named by its end alone rather than by a quarter number guessed from the date. EPS is GAAP diluted, as filed, so it can legitimately differ from the adjusted figure in the Earnings card (consensus is quoted adjusted). Y/Y compares the same fiscal quarter a year earlier; a comparison that cannot be made honestly is an em-dash that says why.
Jun 2026: Revenue grew 138.8% year over year; net income grew 378.4% year over year; and net profit margin was 63.1%, up 31.6 percentage points.
Comparing the same fiscal quarter a year earlier controls for seasonality. Revenue direction and margin direction together show whether sales are translating into profit, but one quarter is evidence—not a complete thesis.
Watch whether the next comparable quarter confirms both the sales direction and the margin direction.
International Seaways delivered record Q2 2026 net income of $295M ($5.91 diluted EPS) on shipping revenues of $467M, with Adjusted EBITDA of $345M; the company declared its largest-ever quarterly dividend of $5.05/share, payable September 24, 2026, reflecting substantially stronger tanker rates year-over-year.
[backfilled] Adjusted EPS of $1.02 beat the ~$0.93 consensus despite a 24% year-over-year revenue decline as spot tanker rates retreated sharply from 2024 peaks; GAAP EPS of $1.25 was lifted by gains from selling six older vessels in a fleet-optimization program, and adjusted EBITDA fell to $102M from $167M in Q2 2024.
| (USD) | Jun 2026 | vs last year |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $467.29 M | |
| Profit after costs | $294.93 M | |
| Profit per share | 5.91 | |
| Profit margin | 63.1% |
† derived: the fiscal year minus its three reported quarters — no 10-K reports a Q4 figure directly. For EPS this assumes per-share figures add across the year.
| Quarter | Revenue | Y/Y | Net income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | $325.48 M | $286.14 M | 87.9% | |
| Dec 2025 | $267.88 M † | $127.50 M † | 47.6% | |
| Sep 2025 | $196.39 M | $70.55 M | 35.9% | |
| Jun 2025 | $195.64 M | $61.65 M | 31.5% | |
| Mar 2025 | $183.39 M | $49.56 M | 27.0% | |
| Dec 2024 | $194.61 M † | $35.82 M † | 18.4% | |
| Sep 2024 | $225.19 M | $91.69 M | 40.7% | |
| Jun 2024 | $257.41 M | $144.72 M | 56.2% |
1M
3M
6M
1Y