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Strong idea · still checking
BridgeBio Pharma, Inc.
BridgeBio Pharma is a commercial-stage rare-disease company built to find genetic diseases with a clear molecular cause and drug them with targeted small molecules.
Expected time 1 year is when we expect the main question to be answered. Full holding time 12-24 months is the longest the idea may stay open if the facts still support it.
Reviewed Sep 2, 2026
BridgeBio makes medicines for rare genetic diseases. Its big seller is Attruby, a once-daily pill for a disease that stiffens the heart. Sales are exploding: $222 million in three months (April–June 2026), more than three times a year earlier, heading toward roughly $900 million a year. The company still loses money — about $107 million last quarter — but the loss is shrinking and it holds about $1.7 billion in cash. Two more first-of-their-kind drugs are close: one for a muscle-wasting disease gets an FDA decision on November 27, 2026, another for a rare calcium disorder in May 2027. The one thing that has to go right: Attruby must keep winning new patients away from Pfizer's older pill — and so far real-world results favor it, while a rival drug just failed its big trial. The one thing that could go wrong: the stock already assumes a lot of success (about $16 billion), so any slowdown in sales or a drug rejection would hurt sharply.
Expected holding period: 12-24 months
These are TickerYou's own possible outcomes—not Wall Street targets or copied internet forecasts. Lower is what may happen if important facts disappoint, middle is our main working case, and higher is what may happen if things go better than expected. These are checks for the research, not promises.
We will check this set through one-year thesis window. The expected holding period (12-24 months) is the broader time we may follow the Idea, so the two dates do not need to match. We show longer-term estimates only when the supporting business and price assumptions are written down.
Where these numbers came from. Published Aug 27, 2026 against $78.66 using a saved Yahoo Finance price as of Aug 27, 2026.
Why we updated it: The prior BBIO targets lacked audited currency and receipt support, so the refreshed USD closing-price targets use the current app price, reopened Q2 revenue and PDUFA evidence, and the still-open forecast scorecard; binary FDA and launch risks keep long-window confidence low.
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Checked through Sep 2, 2026
Each source says whether it supports the idea, challenges it, or adds background. A quick no-change check may update the review date without replacing these sources.
BridgeBio announced an August 31 voluntary U.S. government agreement expanding Medicaid access to its marketed medicine and said Attruby would remain available through Medicare Part D without future pricing mandates.
BridgeBio Announces Agreement with U.S. Government to Improve Affordability and Access to Critical Medicines for Americans (investor.bridgebio.com)BridgeBio's August 30 acoramidis analyses reported potential reversal of cardiac structural disease progression through 42 months and 65 additional days alive and out of hospital by Month 36 versus baseline placebo patients.
Acoramidis Demonstrates Reversal of Cardiac Structural Disease Progression and Functional Decline and Significantly Increases Days Alive and Free from Hospitalization in ATTR-CMWe rated 2 of 2 upcoming events. 0 are both likely and important.
45 of 100 = chance 0.85 × effect 0.6 × date nearness 0.88.
51 of 100 = chance 0.85 × effect 0.6 × date nearness 1.00.
Checks are shown newest first. Repeated copies are folded together on screen, while every saved record remains unchanged.
We previously believed BridgeBio required the Attruby ramp to compound and BBP-418 to remain on track for the November 27 PDUFA. Since the last review, BridgeBio announced an August 31 voluntary U.S. government access agreement for its marketed medicine that it says does not impose future Medicare Part D pricing mandates, and reopened acoramidis data presented on August 30 further supports differentiation. These facts confirm the commercial and clinical setup without changing the conviction; Q3 Attruby revenue and the FDA decision remain unresolved.
Previously we believed BBIO required Attruby's sequential commercial ramp to continue and BBP-418 to remain on track for the Nov 27 FDA decision. Since the Aug 28 review, live BridgeBio, SEC, FDA/PDUFA, Attruby-competition, and sales-decline searches found no eligible dated material development; the reopened Aug 10 SEC-filed release still shows $222.4M of U.S. Attruby net product revenue and BBP-418 Priority Review with the Nov 27 PDUFA. This confirms the thesis and invalidation check remain intact, while Q3 Attruby revenue and the FDA decision remain unresolved.
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BridgeBio is a commercial-stage rare-disease company whose flagship Attruby (acoramidis) for ATTR-CM is in a fast, differentiated first-line ramp: Q2 2026 US net product revenue hit $222.4M, up ~211% year-over-year, driving record total quarterly revenue of $243.7M. The market has been slow to re-rate durability because it fears Pfizer's tafamidis incumbency and Alnylam's Amvuttra, yet the competitive field is clearing — AstraZeneca's Wainua CARDIO-TTRansform Phase 3 in ATTR-CM missed its primary endpoint — and real-world analyses favor acoramidis over tafamidis on cardiovascular outcomes, supporting first-line share capture toward a $2B+ peak. On top of the ramp, BBP-418 met all primary and secondary endpoints in the Phase 3 FORTIFY interim analysis and carries a Nov 27, 2026 PDUFA with no advisory committee planned — a would-be first-ever therapy for any form of limb-girdle muscular dystrophy. A ~$1.7B cash position (post the July 1 preferred financing) funds the pipeline. The mispricing closes as the Attruby run-rate compounds and the second launch lands.
The August 31 issuer release adds a U.S. access agreement and the August 30 issuer release adds acoramidis long-term clinical analyses; Q2 revenue and PDUFA baselines were reopened.
Q3 Attruby net product revenue, payer access durability, BBP-418 FDA outcome, and competitive pressure remain open.
No ready estimate is issued while checks are missing. The $100.00 research scenario remains below for context, without possible-move or sizing language.
ATTR-CM competition intensifies — Pfizer tafamidis incumbency and Alnylam's Amvuttra (vutrisiran) in ATTR-CM could cap first-line share gains and flatten the ramp.
Attruby US quarterly net product revenue declines sequentially (a Q3 2026 print below Q2's $222.4M), signaling the first-line ramp has stalled rather than compounded.
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| through BBP-418 PDUFAShort-term scenario | 2026-12-15 | $58.00 | $88.00 | $105.00 | medium evidence confidence | Open window |
| through early launch readoutMedium-term scenario | 2027-03-31 | $55.00 | $100.00 | $125.00 | medium evidence confidence | Open window |
| one-year thesis windowLong-term scenario | 2027-08-27 | $50.00 | $112.00 | $140.00 | low evidence confidence | Open window |
These are TickerYou's possible outcomes from the latest saved research. Source strength tells you how solid the supporting information is. It is not a chance of success or a recommendation score. These ranges stay visible as research, but we hide the comparison with today’s price until every required check is complete. We check every price range against what happened when its time frame ends—including the ones we got wrong.
BridgeBio's August 10 Q2 release reported $222.4 million of U.S. Attruby net product revenue and BBP-418 PDUFA date of November 27, 2026 with Priority Review.
BridgeBio Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Corporate Updates (investor.bridgebio.com)Kept as the original record. These do not replace the current sources above.
Three checks come from TickerYou's research review. The app calculates the other three from dated prices, events, and sources. Each check keeps its published weight on every idea; the app never changes a weight to make an idea look better.
How strongly the research engine believes the thesis is right, judged 1-10. This pass judged it 8 out of 10.
Whether the price being paid helps or hurts, judged 1-10: 10 means you are paid to take the risk, 1 means the thesis must be right and the multiple must expand. This pass judged it 4 out of 10.
How contained the damage is if the thesis is wrong, judged 1-10: 10 means a real floor of assets or cash, 1 means a permanent loss. This pass judged it 6 out of 10.
The clearest catalyst still ahead opens in 19 days, over a window 92 days wide.
Price is +7.2% over the last 63 trading sessions — moving with the thesis for this long view.
3 dated claim receipts average 10 out of 10 from explicit source tiers 1, 1, 1; roles: 3 support, 0 challenge, 0 context. Roles establish claim linkage; only the stored tiers set reliability.
This confidence score of 71 out of 100 is the weighted average of the 6 ready checks above, on their 0-10 scales, adjusted to 100.
We previously believed BBIO needed Attruby's first-line commercial ramp and BBP-418's November PDUFA to remain intact. Current searches found no eligible material development after the August 27 review; reopened issuer sources preserve the baseline, while Q3 Attruby sales and FDA risk remain unresolved.
We previously believed BridgeBio required continued Attruby ramp evidence and BBP-418 progress toward the November 2026 PDUFA. Current searches found no eligible material development after 2026-08-26T22:47:06.07Z; reopened sources confirm Q2 Attruby U.S. net product revenue of $222.4M, BBP-418 Priority Review with a November 27, 2026 PDUFA, and an Aug. 26 ASCEND-ATTR dosing update that supports acoramidis differentiation but was already before the last review cutoff. The thesis is confirmed, not upgraded; Q3 Attruby revenue and FDA action remain unresolved. Targets are reissued only to repair the unaudited prior forecast set.
We previously believed BBIO required the Attruby ramp to hold and BBP-418 to remain on track for the November PDUFA. Current searches found no eligible material post-review change; the reopened SEC-filed Q2 release still shows $222.4M U.S. Attruby net product revenue and BBP-418 Priority Review with a November 27, 2026 PDUFA. Q3 Attruby sales and FDA approval risk remain unresolved.
We previously believed BBIO needed Attruby's U.S. net product revenue to keep ramping and BBP-418 to remain on track for the Nov. 27 PDUFA. Reopened Aug. 10 sources show Q2 total revenue of $243.7M, $222.4M U.S. Attruby net product revenue, BBP-418 Priority Review with no advisory committee planned, and $720.2M cash before the July 1 $1B preferred financing. No eligible post-Aug. 24 evidence was usable at this cutoff; Q3 Attruby sequential sales and the FDA decision remain unresolved.
Previously we believed BridgeBio's long thesis required Attruby's U.S. revenue ramp to continue and BBP-418 to stay on track for the November PDUFA. This run searched current company updates, PDUFA/regulatory references, ATTR-CM competition, and SEC-style news after the last review and found no eligible post-review development before the cutoff that showed a sequential Attruby decline or BBP-418 regulatory break. The reopened Aug. 10 release confirms the Q2 sales and PDUFA baseline; Q3 Attruby sales remain the invalidation test.
Previously we believed BridgeBio's long thesis was driven by a fast Attruby ramp and the Nov 27, 2026 BBP-418 PDUFA, with valuation and competition as the main offsets. This review found no eligible post-Aug 20 material development changing that view. The reopened Aug 10, 2026 Q2 release confirms $222.4M of U.S. Attruby net product revenue, total revenue of $243.7M, BBP-418 Priority Review with a Nov 27 PDUFA and no planned advisory committee, and $720.2M cash before the July 1 preferred financing. Thesis remains intact; the unresolved fact is the Q3 sequential Attruby sales print against the $222.4M invalidation trigger.
Opened by the biotech hunt.
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TickerYou has not saved a quarterly report for this company yet. We show nothing instead of guessing.
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported and the month that quarter ended, through the same resolver the Earnings card beside this one uses; where no release established a fiscal label, the quarter is named by its end alone rather than by a quarter number guessed from the date. EPS is GAAP diluted, as filed, so it can legitimately differ from the adjusted figure in the Earnings card (consensus is quoted adjusted). Y/Y compares the same fiscal quarter a year earlier; a comparison that cannot be made honestly is an em-dash that says why.
Jun 2026: Revenue grew 120.4% year over year.
Comparing the same fiscal quarter a year earlier controls for seasonality. Revenue direction and margin direction together show whether sales are translating into profit, but one quarter is evidence—not a complete thesis.
Watch whether the next comparable quarter confirms both the sales direction and the margin direction.
| (USD) | Jun 2026 | vs last year |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $243.68 M | |
| Profit after costs | — | — |
| Profit per share | -0.78 | — |
| Profit margin | — | — |
† derived: the fiscal year minus its three reported quarters — no 10-K reports a Q4 figure directly. For EPS this assumes per-share figures add across the year.
| Quarter | Revenue | Y/Y | Net income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | $194.51 M | — | — | |
| Dec 2025 | $154.18 M † | — | — |
| Sep 2025 | $120.70 M | — | — |
| Jun 2025 | $110.56 M | — | — |
| Mar 2025 | $116.63 M | — | — |
| Dec 2024 | $5.88 M † | — | — |
| Sep 2024 | $2.73 M | — | — |
| Jun 2024 | $2.17 M | — | — |