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Cameco Corporation
Cameco is the world's second-largest uranium producer, mining ~15% of global supply (behind only Kazakhstan's Kazatomprom).
Expected time 1 year is when we expect the main question to be answered. Full holding time 12-18 months is the longest the idea may stay open if the facts still support it.
Reviewed Sep 2, 2026
Cameco digs uranium out of the ground in Canada and sells it to nuclear power plants around the world. It's the #2 uranium miner on Earth. It also owns 49% of Westinghouse, the company that builds and services nuclear reactors. It makes real money today — about $845 million in sales in the first three months of 2026, with $131 million in profit. The one thing that has to go right: uranium prices staying near their current 18-year highs (~$94/lb on long-term contracts) as AI data centers and new reactors in China, India and the US drive demand faster than mines can dig it up. The bonus prize is Westinghouse going public — the filing was just made in July 2026 and could value Cameco's stake at three to four times what it's carried at on the books. The one thing that could go wrong: uranium falls back below $75 if Kazakhstan floods the market or reactor construction gets delayed again.
Cameco sold off on its Aug 7 Q2 2026 print because its 49% Westinghouse stake swung to a small loss — but that was purely lapping a one-time ~$170M Dukovany reactor-build benefit booked in Q2 2025, not any deterioration; Cameco's share of Westinghouse adjusted EBITDA was still $163M in the quarter. Uranium spot now sits at ~$86.80/lb (Aug 10, 2026) and the long-term price has risen to $94/lb (+~10% YTD), both well above the $75/lb invalidation trigger. Cameco has 28M+ lb/yr contracted over the next five years at locked-in high margins, and annual production outlook is unchanged at 19.5-21.5M lbs. The Westinghouse value unlock has accelerated materially: (1) Westinghouse filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC on July 31, 2026 for a proposed IPO amid ~$30B valuation chatter; (2) the U.S. DOE announced a conditional commitment of up to $17.5B to support procurement of long-lead components for up to 10 new Westinghouse AP1000 reactors in the U.S. — a structural demand signal that raises the IPO valuation floor well above what the equity-method carrying value on Cameco's balance sheet reflects. Additionally, Cameco signed a new long-term supply agreement with India's Department of Atomic Energy for ~22M lbs of U3O8 between 2027-2035 at market-related prices (estimated ~$1.9B). The Q2 'miss' was the one-time lapse the thesis anticipated; the underlying uranium business and the Westinghouse value unlock are tracking ahead of expectations.
Expected holding period: 12-18 months
These are TickerYou's own possible outcomes—not Wall Street targets or copied internet forecasts. Lower is what may happen if important facts disappoint, middle is our main working case, and higher is what may happen if things go better than expected. These are checks for the research, not promises.
We will check this set through one-year thesis window. The expected holding period (12-18 months) is the broader time we may follow the Idea, so the two dates do not need to match. We show longer-term estimates only when the supporting business and price assumptions are written down.
Where these numbers came from. Published Aug 26, 2026 against $107.25 using a saved Yahoo Finance price as of Aug 26, 2026.
Why we updated it: Targets were refreshed for publication from the current $107.50 price_now, with the prior forecast scorecard still open and no resolved miss to correct; ranges keep upside tied to active uranium-price support and Westinghouse IPO realization rather than mere survival of the thesis.
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Checked through Sep 2, 2026
Each source says whether it supports the idea, challenges it, or adds background. A quick no-change check may update the review date without replacing these sources.
Cameco's August 31 uranium table lists spot uranium at $89.68/lb and long-term uranium at $96.50/lb, above the $75/lb thesis invalidation floor.
Uranium Price | Cameco (cameco.com)Cameco's July 31 Q2 release says 2026 uranium production guidance remains 19.5-21.5 million pounds and Q2 Westinghouse adjusted EBITDA was $163 million despite the Dukovany comparison.
Cameco Reports 2026 Second Quarter Results (cameco.com)Kept as the original record. These do not replace the current sources above.
1 older quarterly-results date is hidden because a newer company check is shown above.
Checks are shown newest first. Repeated copies are folded together on screen, while every saved record remains unchanged.
We previously believed CCJ needed term uranium above $75/lb, unchanged mine guidance, and an intact Westinghouse value path. The new August 31 Cameco uranium table shows spot $89.68/lb and long-term $96.50/lb, confirming the invalidation trigger has not fired; the reopened Q2 release still shows unchanged 2026 uranium production guidance and the Westinghouse EBITDA bridge. The thesis is confirmed, with Q3 production reliability and IPO timing still unresolved.
Previously we believed CCJ required term uranium above $75/lb, stable production guidance, and intact Westinghouse value surfacing. Since the Aug 28 review, live issuer and adverse uranium/Westinghouse searches found no eligible dated material development; the reopened July 31 Cameco uranium table still shows the long-term price at $95.50/lb, above the trigger. This confirms the thesis remains intact, while August pricing, Q3 production reliability, and IPO timing remain unresolved.
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Cameco's August 31 uranium table shows long-term pricing still far above the trigger, while the July 31 issuer release confirms unchanged production guidance and Westinghouse adjusted EBITDA context.
Q3 mine performance, sustained term pricing, and Westinghouse IPO timing remain the next facts to watch.
No ready estimate is issued while checks are missing. The $122.00 research scenario remains below for context, without possible-move or sizing language.
Uranium spot is volatile and could pull back if reactor-restart or data-center power timelines slip, compressing Cameco's price leverage
The long-term (term) uranium price falls and holds below $75/lb, signaling the structural supply-deficit thesis is unwinding.
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| through Q3 2026 updateShort-term scenario | 2026-11-30 | $96.00 | $112.00 | $124.00 | medium evidence confidence | Open window |
| through FY2026 resultsMedium-term scenario | 2027-02-28 | $92.00 | $122.00 | $140.00 | medium evidence confidence | Open window |
| one-year thesis windowLong-term scenario | 2027-08-26 | $85.00 | $138.00 | $165.00 | medium evidence confidence | Open window |
These are TickerYou's possible outcomes from the latest saved research. Source strength tells you how solid the supporting information is. It is not a chance of success or a recommendation score. These ranges stay visible as research, but we hide the comparison with today’s price until every required check is complete. We check every price range against what happened when its time frame ends—including the ones we got wrong.
Three checks come from TickerYou's research review. The app calculates the other three from dated prices, events, and sources. Each check keeps its published weight on every idea; the app never changes a weight to make an idea look better.
How strongly the research engine believes the thesis is right, judged 1-10. This pass judged it 8 out of 10.
Whether the price being paid helps or hurts, judged 1-10: 10 means you are paid to take the risk, 1 means the thesis must be right and the multiple must expand. This pass judged it 5 out of 10.
How contained the damage is if the thesis is wrong, judged 1-10: 10 means a real floor of assets or cash, 1 means a permanent loss. This pass judged it 6 out of 10.
The clearest catalyst still ahead opens in 50 days, over a window 10 days wide.
Price is -2.3% over the last 63 trading sessions — moving against it for this long view.
2 dated claim receipts average 10 out of 10 from explicit source tiers 1, 1; roles: 2 support, 0 challenge, 0 context. Roles establish claim linkage; only the stored tiers set reliability.
This confidence score of 70 out of 100 is the weighted average of the 6 ready checks above, on their 0-10 scales, adjusted to 100.
We previously believed CCJ depended on uranium term pricing holding above the invalidation floor and Westinghouse value surfacing. Current searches found no eligible material development after the August 26 review; the reopened Cameco price table still supports checking the trigger, while Q3 execution and IPO timing remain unresolved.
We previously believed CCJ needed term uranium above the $75/lb floor plus intact Westinghouse value surfacing. Current searches found no eligible material post-review development; the reopened Cameco uranium table still shows the latest eligible July 31 term price at $95.50/lb, confirming the invalidation trigger has not fired. Westinghouse IPO timing and mine execution remain unresolved.
We previously believed the CCJ thesis depended on term uranium staying above $75, unchanged 2026 production, and a Westinghouse IPO path. Current reopened sources show no eligible post-Aug. 24 break; the July 31 uranium table still shows term uranium at $95.50/lb, Cameco kept 19.5-21.5M lb production guidance, and Westinghouse's confidential S-1 remained subject to market conditions. The evidence base and target set were refreshed; IPO timing and Q3 delivery execution remain unresolved.
Previously we believed Cameco's long thesis depended on term uranium staying above $75/lb and Westinghouse value surfacing. This run searched current Cameco, uranium-price, and nuclear-cycle news after the last review and found no eligible post-review development before the cutoff that changed the view. The reopened Cameco uranium table shows the July 31, 2026 long-term uranium price at $95.50/lb, so the invalidation trigger has not fired. Westinghouse IPO timing and Q3 production remain unresolved.
Previously we believed CCJ's uranium contract exposure and Westinghouse value-unlock catalyst remained intact. This review found no eligible post-Aug 20 material news or filing that changed the thesis; the reopened current baseline shows July 31, 2026 long-term uranium at $95.50/lb, well above the $75/lb invalidation trigger, and the Q2 report still frames the Westinghouse loss as a Dukovany comparison issue while production guidance stayed unchanged. The view is confirmed, with Westinghouse IPO timing and future uranium term pricing still unresolved.
Long-term uranium price at decade highs and Q2 2026 realized price $93.13/lb (+15% YoY) keep the term price far above the $75/lb invalidation floor; Westinghouse's July 31 confidential S-1 stands with $23-30B valuation chatter, tracking the value-unlock catalyst. No adverse development since open; the Q2 Westinghouse EBITDA lapse was the one-time Dukovany comparison the thesis anticipated. Conviction unchanged.
Uranium spot at ~$86.5/lb and long-term uranium price at $94/lb as of August 2026 — both well above the $75/lb invalidation trigger and both at multi-year highs. Cameco's Q2 2026 average realized uranium price was a record $93.13/lb (+15% YoY). Westinghouse confidential S-1 filed with the SEC on July 31, 2026 for a proposed IPO at ~$23–30B valuation chatter; the DOE's conditional commitment of up to $17.5B for up to 10 new AP1000 reactors bolsters the IPO floor above carrying value. India supply agreement (~22M lbs 2027–2035 at market-related prices) adds a new long-term contracted demand anchor. Annual production outlook unchanged at 19.5–21.5M lbs. Invalidation trigger has not triggered. Stock essentially flat (−0.4%) since rec.
Uranium spot is ~$86.48-$86.80/lb and the long-term (term) price stands at $94/lb, both materially above the $75/lb invalidation threshold. Cameco's Q2 2026 realized price was $93.13/lb (+15% YoY) and the company raised its 2026 realized-price guidance to $91-$96/lb, with consolidated revenue guidance lifted to $3.32-$3.57B. The India supply agreement was confirmed at ~$2.6B total value for ~22M lbs over nine years, modestly above the ~$1.9B estimate in the thesis. Cameco also increased its Cigar Lake stake to 57.418%. Westinghouse confidential S-1 filed July 31 remains on file. No invalidation-trigger events.
Independently re-surfaced by the dry-fixture hunt this run — duplicate suppressed. Hunt thesis excerpt: Cameco is the western world's largest publicly traded uranium producer at the moment utilities are signing their longest-dated contract book since 2011. Term prices have held above $80/lb even as spot cooled, and the 49% Westinghouse stake adds a services annuity tied directly to reactor restarts an
Q2 2026 average realized uranium price C$93.13/lb (+15% YoY). Spot uranium at ~$86.50/lb and long-term (term) price at $94/lb (highest since 2008)—both well above the $75/lb invalidation trigger. Westinghouse filed confidential S-1 on July 31, 2026. DOE committed up to $17.5B conditional financing for up to 10 new Westinghouse AP1000 reactors in the US, raising IPO valuation floor. India supply deal (~22M lbs U3O8, 2027–2035) confirmed. Thesis tracking ahead of plan on both uranium pricing and Westinghouse value-unlock.
Uranium spot ~$86.80/lb; long-term contract price $94/lb (+~10% YTD) — both well above the $75/lb invalidation trigger. Q2 2026 avg realized price $93.13/lb (+15% YoY), confirming locked-in high margins on 28M+ lb/yr contracted book. Westinghouse filed confidential S-1 with SEC on July 31, 2026 initiating IPO process (Cameco's 49% stake worth ~$14.7B at $30B chatter vs likely sub-$5B equity-method carrying value). DOE $17.5B AP1000 commitment and India $1.9B supply deal already in thesis. Westinghouse IPO is now the live re-rating catalyst; uranium fundamentals intact.
Uranium spot at ~$86.5/lb (Aug 7, 2026) and long-term contract price at ~$93-94/lb, both well above the $75/lb invalidation trigger and at decade highs. Q2 2026 Cameco reported record realized prices with contract floors in the high $70s and ceilings escalated to $160/lb. Westinghouse confidential S-1 filed with SEC July 31, 2026 (confirmed). DOE $17.5B conditional AP1000 commitment confirmed. India 22M-lb supply deal confirmed. All thesis catalysts intact and tracking ahead of expectations; the Q2 Westinghouse earnings 'miss' was purely the one-time Dukovany lapse as the thesis anticipated.
Q2 2026 (Aug 7): revenues CAD 814M (-7% YoY), adj EPS -75% YoY to CAD $0.18 — exactly as the thesis predicted from the Dukovany lapse. Uranium spot now $86.80/lb (Aug 10) and long-term price hit $94/lb (+10% YTD), far above the $75/lb invalidation trigger. Westinghouse S-1 filed confidentially July 31. Two new bullish developments since opening: (1) DOE announced a conditional commitment of up to $17.5B to support long-lead components for up to 10 new Westinghouse AP1000 reactors in the U.S. — a structural demand signal that significantly raises Westinghouse's IPO valuation floor; (2) Cameco signed a new ~$1.9B long-term supply agreement with India's Dept of Atomic Energy for ~22M lbs of U3O8 (2027-2035). Conviction raised.
Opened by the energy hunt.
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