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Research idea · below 8/10
GE Vernova Inc.
GE Vernova is the power business spun out of General Electric in April 2024.
Expected time 3 months is when we expect the main question to be answered. Full holding time 6-12 months is the longest the idea may stay open if the facts still support it.
Research only. At 7/10, this idea stays in research but does not appear with our strongest ideas. It returns there if our belief reaches 8/10.
Reviewed Sep 2, 2026
GE Vernova makes the big machines that produce and carry electricity — gas turbines, grid equipment, and wind turbines. It sells them mostly to power utilities, and increasingly to companies building AI data centers that need enormous amounts of electricity. It makes real money today: for 2026 it expects about $46 billion in sales and around $12 billion of spare cash, and in the last quarter alone it generated $5.1 billion of cash. Demand is so strong that its gas turbines are sold out for years, and customers are now paying cash up front to reserve a slot. The one thing that has to go right: it keeps turning that giant order book into finished machines on time and at good prices, without cost blow-ups. The one thing that could go wrong: the stock has already jumped about 560% in two years and is very expensive, so even good news may not push it higher, and any stumble — like its money-losing wind business, or the earnings miss it just reported — could knock it down hard.
Price estimates are hidden here. We keep checking them for the record, but at 7/10 this is research only. Estimates return if our belief reaches 8/10.
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Checked through Aug 28, 2026
Each source says whether it supports the idea, challenges it, or adds background. A quick no-change check may update the review date without replacing these sources.
GE Vernova's July 22 Q2 release reported $24.2B orders, gas equipment backlog and slot reservations rising to 116 GW, data-center orders above $5B year-to-date, FCF guidance raised to $11.5-$12.5B, and ongoing Wind losses.
GE Vernova reports second quarter 2026 financial results and raises 2026 financial guidance (sec.gov)GE Vernova's August 27 8-K disclosed that CFO Kenneth Parks will retire April 2, 2027 and Claire McDonough will become CFO effective January 1, 2027; it did not report an operating cancellation or guidance cut.
gev-20260825 (sec.gov)Checks are shown newest first. Repeated copies are folded together on screen, while every saved record remains unchanged.
We previously believed GE Vernova needed continued Power demand, no slot-reservation cancellations, and cash conversion to support the three-month rerating. Searches covering issuer releases, SEC filings, turbine competition, order cancellations, turbine defects, and data-center demand found no dated material development after the August 30 review. The reopened SEC-filed Q2 baseline still supports the thesis, but the October Q3 order print remains the unresolved test.
Previously we believed GEV needed Power orders, book-to-bill strength, and slot-reservation visibility to hold through the October Q3 test. Since the Aug 28 review, live SEC, issuer, turbine-defect, slot-cancellation, and data-center demand searches found no eligible dated material development; the reopened July 22 SEC-filed Q2 release still shows $24.2B orders, gas backlog and slot reservations rising to 116 GW, and raised 2026 free-cash-flow guidance. This confirms the short-horizon setup remains intact, while Q3 book-to-bill, reservation conversion, and Wind losses remain unresolved.
1 check left
GE Vernova SEC filings, issuer releases, turbine competition, cancellation, defect, and demand searches found no dated post-review material change.
Q3 Power book-to-bill, paid slot conversion, turbine execution, and Wind losses remain the next material tests.
Hidden while our belief stays below 8/10.
A pause in hyperscaler capex plans would hit the order book the market is capitalizing
Book-to-bill below 1.0 in Power for two straight quarters, or cancellation of paid slot reservations, invalidates the visibility argument.
Kept as the original record. These do not replace the current sources above.
Three checks come from TickerYou's research review. The app calculates the other three from dated prices, events, and sources. Each check keeps its published weight on every idea; the app never changes a weight to make an idea look better.
How strongly the research engine believes the thesis is right, judged 1-10. This pass judged it 7 out of 10.
Whether the price being paid helps or hurts, judged 1-10: 10 means you are paid to take the risk, 1 means the thesis must be right and the multiple must expand. This pass judged it 5 out of 10.
How contained the damage is if the thesis is wrong, judged 1-10: 10 means a real floor of assets or cash, 1 means a permanent loss. This pass judged it 6 out of 10.
The clearest catalyst still ahead opens in 19 days, over a window 92 days wide.
Price is +5.6% over the last 63 trading sessions — moving with the thesis for this long view.
2 dated claim receipts average 10 out of 10 from explicit source tiers 1, 1; roles: 1 support, 0 challenge, 1 context. Roles establish claim linkage; only the stored tiers set reliability.
This confidence score of 70 out of 100 is the weighted average of the 6 ready checks above, on their 0-10 scales, adjusted to 100.
We previously believed GEV's short-horizon thesis depended on Power orders, slot reservations, and Electrification margins holding up. The new August 27 8-K disclosed a CFO succession but did not show order cancellations or Power deterioration; the July Q2 filing still supports backlog and cash-flow visibility. Targets were repaired, not the thesis.
We previously believed GEV needed Power demand visibility to remain strong, with no reservation cancellations or consecutive weak Power book-to-bill quarters. Current searches found no eligible material post-review break; the reopened Q2 filing still shows $24.2B orders, 116 GW gas equipment backlog plus reservations, and raised 2026 free cash flow guidance. Q3 book-to-bill and Wind losses remain the next tests.
We previously believed GEV's three-month thesis rested on Power demand visibility, slot reservations, and no evidence of cancellations or consecutive weak Power book-to-bill. Reopened July 22 sources show Q2 orders of $24.2B, Gas Power backlog and slot reservations rising to 116 GW, Power orders of $16.7B, and 2026 FCF guidance raised to $11.5-$12.5B. The 10-Q also confirms Wind remains weak, but that was an existing risk and does not fire the Power book-to-bill invalidation trigger.
Previously we believed GE Vernova's 3-month thesis rested on Power book-to-bill strength, paid gas slot visibility, and Electrification demand outweighing Wind drag. This run searched current GE Vernova releases, backlog updates, execution-risk headlines, and SEC-style result references after the last review and found no eligible post-review development before the cutoff showing two weak Power quarters or slot cancellations. The reopened July 22 release confirms the Q2 order and backlog baseline, so the thesis and conviction are unchanged.
Previously we believed GE Vernova's 3-month long thesis was about a sold-out gas-turbine slot book, Power book-to-bill strength, and Electrification demand outweighing Wind drag. This review found no eligible post-Aug 20 material filing or news that broke or moved the thesis. The reopened July 22, 2026 release confirms orders of $24.2B, gas backlog and slot reservations up to 116 GW, year-end target of at least 125 GW, and 2026 free-cash-flow guidance raised to $11.5-$12.5B. Thesis is confirmed; unresolved are Q3 orders, Wind losses, and whether valuation keeps compressing despite fundamentals.
Aug 17-18 coverage restated the Q2 2026 (July 22) print rather than adding new evidence: gas-turbine backlog 116 GW (target 125 GW by year-end), Power orders +134%, total backlog $176.3B, orders +88% organic; Wind still a drag at -40% orders. Power book-to-bill stayed well above 1.0, so the two-quarter <1.0 invalidation trigger is nowhere near. Thesis intact ahead of the Oct 22 Q3 print; conviction unchanged.
Conviction moved on: Q2 2026 (July 22, 2026): FCF guidance raised to $11.5–$12.5B from $6.5–$7.5B — nearly doubling the prior range — driven by record gas-turbine advance payments; Power book-to-bill above 2x and gas turbine backlog at 116 GW confirm the sold-out order-book thesis is materializing materially ahead of consensus, with backlog tracking to $200B by 2027.
Q2 2026 (July 22, 2026): orders surged 88% year-over-year to $24.2B with Power book-to-bill above 2x; gas turbine backlog grew to 116 GW from 100 GW three months earlier, targeting 125 GW by year-end; GE Vernova raised full-year free cash flow guidance to $11.5–$12.5B from $6.5–$7.5B, driven by record customer advance payments on turbine reservations, and raised revenue guidance to $45.5–$46.5B. Year-to-date FCF was approximately $10B, more than 2.5x full-year 2025. Total backlog reached $176B and is targeting $200B by 2027. Wind segment posted a $275M EBITDA loss and orders fell 40% — ongoing drag as expected but not widening. Q2 EPS missed despite the revenue beat, reflecting Wind losses and cost mix. Q3 earnings confirmed for October 2026. Invalidation trigger (Power book-to-bill below 1.0 for two consecutive quarters) is not triggered; Q2 Power book-to-bill was well above 1.0.
Q2 2026 results (reported July 22, 2026, prior to opening) showed orders up 88% YoY to $24.2B, gas turbine backlog at 116 GW with 20 GW signed in Q2 alone (including slot reservation agreements), Electrification revenue +68%, and 2026 guidance raised ($45.5-$46.5B revenue, free cash flow guidance +$5B). Wind EBITDA losses widened to $275M (from $165M), driving an EPS miss ($2.47 vs $3.16 estimate) — but this outcome was known at the August 12 opening. Book-to-bill in Power remains well above 1.0; the invalidation trigger (two consecutive quarters below 1.0, or slot cancellations) has not fired. A tariff headwind of up to $200M is flagged as incremental risk but does not break the Power/Electrification thesis. Next key catalyst: Q3 orders print on October 22, 2026.
Independently re-surfaced by the dry-fixture hunt this run — duplicate suppressed. Hunt thesis excerpt: GE Vernova's gas-turbine slot book is effectively sold out into 2028, with customers now paying cash reservation fees years ahead of delivery — unusual revenue visibility for a large industrial. AI data-center electrification is repricing the entire grid-equipment complex, and both the Power and Ele
Opened by the dry-fixture hunt.
Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported — the label its release used and its consensus estimate was quoted against — and by the month that quarter ended, taken from the filer's own XBRL period boundaries. A fiscal year need not follow the calendar, so Apple's Q2 runs January to March; naming the quarter end keeps that true in both calendars, and no quarter number is ever inferred from a date. Quarterly financials beside this card names the same quarter the same way. TickerYou takes the figures from the release and its filing; every word, sign and percentage is calculated by the app from those stored numbers. A post-release reaction appears only with the stored first-close measurement stamp; otherwise the card says the window is not established and computes no divergence. EPS here is on the basis consensus quotes — adjusted for most US names — so it can legitimately differ from the GAAP figure in Quarterly financials. Rows marked [backfilled] were confirmed from archived coverage after the fact — a lower evidence tier than live capture, and labelled so.
Q2 FY2026 · Jun 2026: EPS missed the stored consensus estimate, while revenue beat the stored consensus estimate. No post-release price reaction is asserted because its stamped measurement window is not established.
A surprise shows how the release differed from expectations, not whether the business is good or the thesis is right. The price reaction shows repricing, not its cause.
Watch whether the next comparable release repairs the miss, and keep the operating result separate from the market reaction.
Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · Reported Jul 22, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Revenue rose 22% to $11.1B and cleared consensus; orders surged 88% to $24.2B and backlog hit a record $176.3B; management raised full-year revenue guidance to $45.5–$46.5B and free cash flow to $11.5–$12.5B; however, EPS fell well short of the $3.04 street figure, adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.3% disappointed, and management flagged $100–$200M of incremental tariff pressure on 2026 costs.
Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · Reported Apr 22, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Operational momentum was strong — adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled YoY to $896M (9.6% margin), orders surged 71% organically to $18.3B lifting backlog to $163B, and management raised full-year revenue guidance to $44.5–45.5B and free-cash-flow guidance to $6.5–7.5B; GAAP EPS of $17.44 was heavily distorted by a $4.5B pre-tax Prolec GE remeasurement gain and does not reflect operational earnings.
Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 · Reported Jan 28, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] GEV discloses only GAAP EPS ($13.39) and publishes no adjusted non-GAAP figure; sell-side consensus ($2.99–$3.03, adjusted basis) cannot be matched to actuals, so both EPS fields are null. Revenue of $10.23B exceeded consensus; stock rose ~3.6% pre-market on the print.
Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 · Reported Oct 22, 2025 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Adjusted EPS of $1.64 on $9.97B revenue with orders surging to $14.6B (+55% organically); the company announced a $5.275B deal to acquire the remaining 50% of Prolec GE and reaffirmed 2025 revenue guidance toward the high end of its $36–37B range.
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported and the month that quarter ended, through the same resolver the Earnings card beside this one uses; where no release established a fiscal label, the quarter is named by its end alone rather than by a quarter number guessed from the date. EPS is GAAP diluted, as filed, so it can legitimately differ from the adjusted figure in the Earnings card (consensus is quoted adjusted). Y/Y compares the same fiscal quarter a year earlier; a comparison that cannot be made honestly is an em-dash that says why.
Jun 2026: Revenue grew 21.9% year over year; net income grew 30.0% year over year; and net profit margin was 6.0%, up 0.4 percentage points.
Comparing the same fiscal quarter a year earlier controls for seasonality. Revenue direction and margin direction together show whether sales are translating into profit, but one quarter is evidence—not a complete thesis.
Watch whether the next comparable quarter confirms both the sales direction and the margin direction.
| (USD) | Jun 2026 | vs last year |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.10 B | |
| Profit after costs | $668.00 M | |
| Profit per share | 2.47 | |
| Profit margin | 6.0% |
† derived: the fiscal year minus its three reported quarters — no 10-K reports a Q4 figure directly. For EPS this assumes per-share figures add across the year.
| Quarter | Revenue | Y/Y | Net income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | $9.34 B | $4.75 B | 50.8% | |
| Dec 2025 | $10.96 B † | $3.66 B † | 33.4% | |
| Sep 2025 | $9.97 B | $452.00 M | 4.5% | |
| Jun 2025 | $9.11 B | $514.00 M | 5.6% | |
| Mar 2025 | $8.03 B | $254.00 M | 3.2% | |
| Dec 2024 | $10.56 B † | $484.00 M † | 4.6% | |
| Sep 2024 | $8.91 B | $-96.00 M | -1.1% | |
| Jun 2024 | $8.20 B | $1.29 B | 15.8% |
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