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Strong idea · still checking
Micron Technology, Inc.
Micron is one of only three scale manufacturers of memory chips in the world, alongside Samsung and SK Hynix.
Expected time 1 year is when we expect the main question to be answered. Full holding time 12-24 months is the longest the idea may stay open if the facts still support it.
Reviewed Sep 2, 2026
Micron makes the memory chips that computers and phones use to think and store things. Right now the world is desperate for a special kind of memory (called HBM) that sits next to the chips running artificial intelligence, and there isn't enough of it. Micron is one of only three companies on Earth that can make it. That has sent its business to record highs: it reported about $41.5 billion of sales in one recent quarter and expects roughly $50 billion the next, at huge profit margins. The one thing that has to go right: the AI buying stays strong and Micron keeps its HBM contracts, which are already booked through 2027. The one thing that could go wrong: memory has always been boom-and-bust, prices could tumble, and a fast-growing Chinese rival (CXMT) is grabbing share. The stock has already tripled off its July low to about $943, near its record — so a lot of good news is already in the price.
Micron is at the center of the most severe memory shortage in 15 years — an AI-driven DRAM/NAND/HBM supercycle. Fiscal Q3 2026 revenue hit a record $41.5B (+346% YoY) at 84.9% gross margin and $25.11 EPS, with fiscal Q4 guided to ~$50B revenue, ~86% gross margin and a record ~$31 EPS. HBM capacity is now sold out through calendar 2027 — one full year beyond the original thesis horizon — with price and volume already locked; HBM4, built on 1-beta DRAM technology, entered high-volume shipments for the lead customer platform in Q3 FY2026 and qualification samples have shipped to multiple additional end-customers, with HBM4E development underway for volume production in calendar 2027. DRAM/NAND contract prices are still rising into Q3 2026 (TrendForce: DRAM +13–18%, NAND +10–15% QoQ), with the shortage projected to persist well into 2027. Yet MU trades near ~6x forward earnings — roughly 80% below the ~30x semiconductor median — because the market reflexively assigns memory a trough cyclical multiple, betting an imminent downturn. The mispricing is duration: locked HBM contracts now extending through 2027 and supply discipline make this AI cycle structurally longer and higher than prior memory cycles, so both forward EPS and the multiple are too low, and sustained pricing forces upward revisions plus a re-rating.
Expected holding period: 12-24 months
These are TickerYou's own possible outcomes—not Wall Street targets or copied internet forecasts. Lower is what may happen if important facts disappoint, middle is our main working case, and higher is what may happen if things go better than expected. These are checks for the research, not promises.
We will check this set through 12 months. The expected holding period (12-24 months) is the broader time we may follow the Idea, so the two dates do not need to match. We show longer-term estimates only when the supporting business and price assumptions are written down.
Where these numbers came from. Published Aug 25, 2026 against $910.43 using a saved Yahoo Finance price as of Aug 24, 2026.
Why we updated it: Targets are reissued only because the prior generation needed before-publication refresh. I anchored the new ranges to the reopened 2026-08-24 close of $910.43, kept the old open forecasts ungraded, and balanced Micron’s strong Q4 guide and shortage evidence against pricing-moderation risk.
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Checked through Aug 26, 2026
Each source says whether it supports the idea, challenges it, or adds background. A quick no-change check may update the review date without replacing these sources.
Micron's June 24 company release reported fiscal Q3 revenue of $41.456B, non-GAAP EPS of $25.11, non-GAAP gross margin of 84.9%, and Q4 guidance for $50.0B revenue and about 86% gross margin.
Micron Technology, Inc. Reports Record Results for the Third Quarter of Fiscal 2026 (investors.micron.com)Micron's SEC exhibit for the same Q3 release states HBM4 was in high-volume shipments for the lead customer platform and HBM4E volume production was expected in calendar 2027.
Micron Technology, Inc. Reports Record Results for the Third Quarter of Fiscal 2026 (sec.gov)Checks are shown newest first. Repeated copies are folded together on screen, while every saved record remains unchanged.
We previously believed Micron's long thesis depended on AI memory tightness persisting without a sequential pricing, revenue, or margin rollover. Current searches checked Micron investor releases, Q4 earnings timing, DRAM/NAND rollover language, HBM competition and guide-cut categories; no material post-review change was found. The next unresolved fact is still the Sept. 30 fiscal Q4 result and initial fiscal 2027 outlook.
Prior view was that Micron's AI memory shortage thesis remains intact unless pricing rolls over and guidance turns down sequentially. Searches for guide cuts, DRAM or NAND rollover, and competitive supply shocks found no material post-review break; the next real test remains the Sept. 30 fiscal Q4 call.
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Checked Micron investor releases, memory-price rollover, guidance-cut and competitive HBM supply categories; no material post-review change was found.
Whether fiscal Q4 results and the first fiscal 2027 outlook confirm HBM demand, pricing and margins remain elevated.
No ready estimate is issued while checks are missing. The $1,100.00 research scenario remains below for context, without possible-move or sizing language.
Memory is deeply cyclical; ~85% gross margins sit at an extreme cyclical peak and invite sharp mean reversion if supply catches up or AI demand cools
DRAM and NAND contract prices roll over into sequential QoQ declines and Micron guides revenue and gross margin down sequentially, signaling the shortage is ending and peak earnings are behind it.
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| 3 monthsShort-term scenario | 2026-11-25 | $760.00 | $975.00 | $1,125.00 | medium evidence confidence | Open window |
| 6 monthsMedium-term scenario | 2027-02-25 | $700.00 | $1,100.00 | $1,350.00 | medium evidence confidence | Open window |
| 12 monthsLong-term scenario | 2027-08-25 | $610.00 | $1,225.00 | $1,550.00 | medium evidence confidence | Open window |
These are TickerYou's possible outcomes from the latest saved research. Source strength tells you how solid the supporting information is. It is not a chance of success or a recommendation score. These ranges stay visible as research, but we hide the comparison with today’s price until every required check is complete. We check every price range against what happened when its time frame ends—including the ones we got wrong.
Kept as the original record. These do not replace the current sources above.
Three checks come from TickerYou's research review. The app calculates the other three from dated prices, events, and sources. Each check keeps its published weight on every idea; the app never changes a weight to make an idea look better.
How strongly the research engine believes the thesis is right, judged 1-10. This pass judged it 9 out of 10.
Whether the price being paid helps or hurts, judged 1-10: 10 means you are paid to take the risk, 1 means the thesis must be right and the multiple must expand. This pass judged it 8 out of 10.
How contained the damage is if the thesis is wrong, judged 1-10: 10 means a real floor of assets or cash, 1 means a permanent loss. This pass judged it 3 out of 10.
The clearest catalyst still ahead opens in 11 days, on a single dated day.
Price is -2.1% over the last 63 trading sessions — moving against it for this long view.
2 dated claim receipts average 10 out of 10 from explicit source tiers 1, 1; roles: 2 support, 0 challenge, 0 context. Roles establish claim linkage; only the stored tiers set reliability.
This confidence score of 77 out of 100 is the weighted average of the 6 ready checks above, on their 0-10 scales, adjusted to 100.
We previously believed Micron needed no sequential pricing, revenue, or gross-margin rollover before fiscal Q4. Current searches found Micron's Aug. 26 notice scheduling fiscal Q4 results for Sept. 30 and did not find a cutoff-eligible guidance cut or pricing-rollover event after the last review. The open question is still whether fiscal Q4 confirms the extreme margin cycle is durable into fiscal 2027.
Prior belief was that Micron's AI memory shortage thesis required no sequential rollover in pricing, revenue, or gross margin. Since the last review, current searches found no cutoff-eligible guide-down or contract-price decline; the June 24 company and SEC releases still show Q4 guidance for $50.0B revenue and about 86% gross margin. The view is confirmed, with durability into fiscal 2027 still unresolved.
Previously we believed Micron's AI memory shortage thesis required no sequential revenue or gross-margin guide-down. Searches since the Aug. 25 review found no eligible dated post-review evidence before the cutoff that DRAM/NAND pricing rolled over or that Micron cut guidance; the reopened June 24 SEC-filed Q3 release remains the current baseline with Q4 revenue guided to $50.0B and gross margin around 86%. The thesis is intact, with Q4 still the unresolved test.
The stored view was that Micron’s AI memory cycle had not rolled over and that the next real test is fiscal Q4 guidance/results. Since the 2026-08-24 review, live searches found no cutoff-eligible material post-review issuer filing, earnings release, pricing break, or guide-down. Reopened baseline sources still show sequentially higher Q4 revenue and gross-margin guidance, DRAM/NAND contract prices rising rather than declining, and a current price of $910.43 on 2026-08-24; the main unresolved risk is that TrendForce’s later mobile DRAM work shows pricing increases moderating as consumer demand weakens.
We previously believed Micron's 1y long rested on an AI-driven memory shortage, rising DRAM/NAND pricing, and Q4 guidance showing record revenue and margins rather than peak-cycle rollover. This review found no cutoff-eligible post-review evidence of sequential revenue or margin deterioration, and the opened SEC-filed Q3 release still shows record Q3 results plus Q4 guidance for $50.0B revenue and roughly 86% gross margin. The thesis remains intact; the unresolved issue is whether the next guide extends this shortage into fiscal 2027.
We previously believed Micron’s AI-memory shortage thesis remained intact unless DRAM/NAND prices rolled over and the company guided revenue and margin down sequentially. This run found no such rollover or guide cut: Micron’s latest filed Q3 release still shows a record Q4 guide, HBM4 shipments and strong cash generation, while TrendForce’s current pricing baseline still had DRAM and NAND contract prices rising in 3Q26, albeit at moderating rates. The remaining unresolved question is whether the late-September Q4 guide confirms durability into fiscal 2027.
MU closed $1,011.75 on Aug 18, 2026, above $1,000 for the first time since 2021; Micron's CBO reiterated the AI memory shortage extends past 2027 ('2027 tighter than 2026'), and BofA/TrendForce still model server DRAM +13-18% QoQ in Q3 2026. This confirms — does not exceed — the sold-out-through-2027 thesis already priced into the 9. No sequential price rollover, so the invalidation trigger is dormant; conviction held rather than ratcheted on confirmation of an existing thesis.
Conviction moved on: HBM confirmed sold out through calendar 2027 (reported June 24, 2026 Q3 FY2026 call) — one full year beyond the thesis's original 'through calendar 2026' horizon — with price and volume already locked; HBM4 entered high-volume shipments for the lead customer, confirming the product roadmap on schedule and extending the structural duration argument.
Micron Q3 FY2026 (reported June 24, 2026) confirmed $41.5B revenue, 84.9% gross margin, $25.11 EPS — all in-line with thesis projections. Q4 guided to $50B revenue, ~86% gross margin, ~$31 EPS. Critical new development: HBM is now sold out through calendar 2027, extending the locked-in visibility window a full year beyond what the thesis established at open. HBM4, built on 1-beta DRAM technology, entered high-volume shipments for the lead customer platform in Q3 FY2026, and qualification samples have shipped to multiple additional end-customers; HBM4E development is underway with volume production expected calendar 2027. DRAM/NAND contract prices continue to rise. Q4 FY2026 earnings are due September 29, 2026. Invalidation trigger (contract prices declining QoQ plus sequential revenue and margin guidance cut) has not triggered. The cycle is running longer and deeper than the original thesis modeled.
Micron reported record Q3 FY2026 results on June 24, 2026, topping estimates; stock jumped 13.1% on the print. Q4 FY2026 is guided to a record ~$50B revenue, ~86% gross margin, and ~$31 EPS. HBM4 for Nvidia Vera Rubin is ramping at roughly twice the expected pace with yield ahead of plan. FY2027 consensus EPS has been revised to ~$112/share from ~$90. Management flagged a 'meaningful moderation in the rate of price increases' for Q4 — prices are still rising sequentially, not declining, so the invalidation trigger (sequential QoQ price declines plus a revenue/margin guidance cut) has not fired. Q4 earnings are expected September 23, 2026.
Q4 FY2026 guidance of $50B revenue, ~86% gross margin, and $31 EPS remains in place post Q3 FY2026 record print. TrendForce (July 9, 2026) projects server DRAM contract prices +13–18% QoQ in Q3 calendar 2026—still rising, not rolling over, and rising into Q4 2026 through H2 2027. HBM supply sold out through calendar 2026 with HBM4 ramping. Invalidation trigger (sequential DRAM/NAND price declines plus guide cuts) has not fired.
TrendForce confirmed Q3 2026 DRAM contract prices +13-18% QoQ and NAND +10-15% QoQ (TrendForce July 3, 2026 report) — exactly the range cited in the thesis and the direct opposite of the invalidation trigger (prices rolling over into sequential declines). Micron has secured ~$100B in binding multi-year AI memory contracts, effectively selling out HBM supply through calendar 2026. Q4 FY2026 guided at ~$50B revenue, ~86% gross margin, and ~$31 EPS — on track with thesis. No cyclical downturn signals in evidence; shortage-driven supercycle tracking as modeled.
Labelled an affirm while conviction moved 7 → 8 — the stored action label and the recorded move disagree. Treat this as a changed conviction; the historical row remains visible as written.
Fiscal Q3 2026 confirmed: revenue $41.46B (+346% YoY), gross margin 84.6%, EPS $25.11 (beat consensus by ~24%), all quarterly records. Q4 guided $50.0B revenue, ~86% gross margin, ~$31 EPS non-GAAP. HBM4 is in high-volume production for lead customer; HBM3E and HBM4 fully booked through calendar 2027 with demand extending into 2028. TrendForce confirms DRAM/NAND contract prices still rising QoQ. Invalidation trigger (sequential price declines and guidance cut) has NOT fired. Thesis tracking well ahead of expectations.
Micron Q3 FY2026 results confirmed record $41.5B revenue at 84.9% gross margin and $25.11 EPS. Q4 FY2026 guided to $50B revenue (~86% GM, ~$31 EPS) — a further 21% sequential step-up. HBM supply locked through all of calendar 2026 at fixed price and volume including HBM4 for Nvidia Vera Rubin. Micron stated supply growth for DRAM and NAND is expected to remain below demand 'for the foreseeable future,' and HBM TAM is projected to exceed $100B in 2027. Invalidation trigger (QoQ sequential price declines + sequential revenue/margin guide-down) has not fired; the shortage is tracking intact.
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Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported — the label its release used and its consensus estimate was quoted against — and by the month that quarter ended, taken from the filer's own XBRL period boundaries. A fiscal year need not follow the calendar, so Apple's Q2 runs January to March; naming the quarter end keeps that true in both calendars, and no quarter number is ever inferred from a date. Quarterly financials beside this card names the same quarter the same way. TickerYou takes the figures from the release and its filing; every word, sign and percentage is calculated by the app from those stored numbers. A post-release reaction appears only with the stored first-close measurement stamp; otherwise the card says the window is not established and computes no divergence. EPS here is on the basis consensus quotes — adjusted for most US names — so it can legitimately differ from the GAAP figure in Quarterly financials. Rows marked [backfilled] were confirmed from archived coverage after the fact — a lower evidence tier than live capture, and labelled so.
Q3 FY2026 · May 2026: EPS beat the stored consensus estimate, while revenue beat the stored consensus estimate. No post-release price reaction is asserted because its stamped measurement window is not established.
A surprise shows how the release differed from expectations, not whether the business is good or the thesis is right. The price reaction shows repricing, not its cause.
Watch whether the next comparable release confirms the result; one beat or market move does not establish a durable trend.
Quarter ended May 28, 2026 · Reported Jun 24, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Record quarter ending May 28, 2026: revenue surged more than fourfold year-over-year on sevenfold data-center growth to $11.5B, GAAP gross margin expanded to 84.6%, and management guided fiscal Q4 to $50B revenue ±$1B with ~86% gross margin — the most aggressive forward guidance in company history.
Quarter ended Feb 26, 2026 · Reported Mar 18, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Micron set fiscal Q2 2026 records across revenue, gross margin, adjusted EPS, and free cash flow driven by surging AI-era HBM and data center memory demand; Q3 guidance of ~$33.5B revenue and ~$19.15 adjusted EPS signaled further acceleration.
Quarter ended Nov 27, 2025 · Reported Dec 17, 2025 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Record third-consecutive-quarter revenue of $13.64B (+57% YoY, +21% QoQ) with non-GAAP gross margin of 56.8% and non-GAAP EPS of $4.78; Q2 guidance of $18.7B revenue at ~68% gross margin (~+$5B sequential) far exceeded Street, driven by accelerating HBM and AI-infrastructure demand.
Quarter ended Aug 28, 2025 · Reported Sep 23, 2025 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Record quarter driven by AI data center demand: Cloud Memory Business Unit revenue more than tripled YoY to $4.54B; gross margins expanded sharply; company guided Q1 FY2026 sequential revenue growth of ~$1.2B with gross margins projected above 50%.
Quarter ended May 29, 2025 · Reported Jun 25, 2025 · stock move after results · not shown
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported and the month that quarter ended, through the same resolver the Earnings card beside this one uses; where no release established a fiscal label, the quarter is named by its end alone rather than by a quarter number guessed from the date. EPS is GAAP diluted, as filed, so it can legitimately differ from the adjusted figure in the Earnings card (consensus is quoted adjusted). Y/Y compares the same fiscal quarter a year earlier; a comparison that cannot be made honestly is an em-dash that says why.
May 2026: Revenue grew 345.7% year over year; net income grew 1398.3% year over year; and net profit margin was 68.1%, up 47.9 percentage points.
Comparing the same fiscal quarter a year earlier controls for seasonality. Revenue direction and margin direction together show whether sales are translating into profit, but one quarter is evidence—not a complete thesis.
Watch whether the next comparable quarter confirms both the sales direction and the margin direction.
[backfilled] All three metrics — revenue, gross margin, and non-GAAP EPS — cleared the high end of guidance, led by HBM revenue that grew nearly 50% sequentially on AI-infrastructure demand; management guided Q4 revenue to a $10.7B midpoint, a further 15% sequential step-up.
| (USD) | May 2026 | vs last year |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $41.46 B | |
| Profit after costs | $28.24 B | |
| Profit per share | 24.67 | |
| Profit margin | 68.1% |
† derived: the fiscal year minus its three reported quarters — no 10-K reports a Q4 figure directly. For EPS this assumes per-share figures add across the year.
| Quarter | Revenue | Y/Y | Net income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2026 | $23.86 B | $13.79 B | 57.8% | |
| Nov 2025 | $13.64 B | $5.24 B | 38.4% | |
| Aug 2025 | $11.31 B † | $3.20 B † | 28.3% | |
| May 2025 | $9.30 B | $1.89 B | 20.3% | |
| Feb 2025 | $8.05 B | $1.58 B | 19.7% | |
| Nov 2024 | $8.71 B | $1.87 B | 21.5% | |
| Aug 2024 | $7.75 B † | $887.00 M † | 11.4% | |
| May 2024 | $6.81 B | $332.00 M | 4.9% |