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Research idea · below 8/10
Centrus Energy Corp.
Centrus Energy is the only U.S.-owned uranium enricher and the sole U.S.-licensed producer of High-Assay, Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) — the 5-20% enriched fuel that virtually every American advanced reactor and small modular reactor (SMR) design requires.
Expected time 1 year is when we expect the main question to be answered. Full holding time 12-24 months is the longest the idea may stay open if the facts still support it.
Research only. At 6/10, this idea stays in research but does not appear with our strongest ideas. It returns there if our belief reaches 8/10.
Reviewed Sep 2, 2026
Centrus is the only American-owned company that enriches uranium into fuel for nuclear power plants — and the only U.S. company licensed to make the special higher-enriched fuel (called HALEU) that all the new small modular reactors need. It does make money today: about $176 million in the most recent quarter and roughly $39 million of adjusted profit, with $1.87 billion of cash in the bank. But the exciting part — building a big new enrichment plant in Ohio — will not deliver its first commercial fuel until around 2029-2030. In 2026 the government signed a $900 million contract to help pay for that plant, and the SMR company X-energy signed a supply deal with upfront payments, which together cover a chunk of the build cost without Centrus having to sell more shares. The one thing that has to go right is finishing that plant roughly on time; the one thing that could go wrong is the plant slipping two or three years or the French competitor Orano getting its own new U.S. plant running first.
Price estimates are hidden here. We keep checking them for the record, but at 6/10 this is research only. Estimates return if our belief reaches 8/10.
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Checked through Aug 28, 2026
Each source says whether it supports the idea, challenges it, or adds background. A quick no-change check may update the review date without replacing these sources.
Centrus's August 5 Q2 release reported $176.1M revenue, a signed $900M DOE HALEU enrichment award, $4.5B total backlog, and expected first new Oak Ridge centrifuge completion by year-end 2026.
Centrus Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (centrusenergy.gcs-web.com)Centrus's Q2 10-Q says DOE does not currently intend to exercise further options under the older HALEU Operation Contract, while separately describing the January $900M HALEU Production Contract task order and July signing.
leu-20260630 (sec.gov)1 older quarterly-results date is hidden because a newer company check is shown above.
Checks are shown newest first. Repeated copies are folded together on screen, while every saved record remains unchanged.
We previously believed Centrus required DOE-backed HALEU commercialization funding to stay intact while backlog, offtake, and centrifuge execution advanced. Current searches of Centrus issuer releases, SEC filing listings, DOE/HALEU funding, backlog, and adverse delay/funding queries found no dated material development after the August 30 review. The latest reopened Q2 source still frames the case as funded but execution-heavy, so conviction is unchanged and the funding cadence remains unresolved.
Previously we believed LEU's DOE-backed HALEU commercialization path remained intact but long-dated and capital intensive. Since the Aug 28 review, live issuer, DOE-funding, HALEU, backlog, and adverse execution searches found no eligible dated material development; the reopened Aug 5 Centrus release still shows the signed $900M DOE HALEU award, $4.5B backlog, and explicit DOE option/funding uncertainty. This confirms the thesis is alive but still speculative, with task-order funding cadence and centrifuge execution unresolved.
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Issuer releases, SEC materials, DOE HALEU funding queries, backlog checks, and adverse execution-risk searches found no dated post-review material change.
DOE task-order cadence, Piketon and Oak Ridge execution, capital intensity, and offtake conversion remain unresolved.
Hidden while our belief stays below 8/10.
Piketon commercial capacity is not expected online until 2029, so near-term value rests on contracts and awards rather than production — a long-dated payoff vulnerable to slippage
The DOE declines to award or fund the next phase of its HALEU program, removing the non-dilutive funding that underpins the Piketon commercial build-out.
Centrus's August 6 SEC-filed release announced a definitive X-energy LEU and HALEU enrichment services agreement with X-energy prepayments supporting domestic commercial enrichment capacity.
Kept as the original record. These do not replace the current sources above.
Three checks come from TickerYou's research review. The app calculates the other three from dated prices, events, and sources. Each check keeps its published weight on every idea; the app never changes a weight to make an idea look better.
How strongly the research engine believes the thesis is right, judged 1-10. This pass judged it 6 out of 10.
Whether the price being paid helps or hurts, judged 1-10: 10 means you are paid to take the risk, 1 means the thesis must be right and the multiple must expand. This pass judged it 3 out of 10.
How contained the damage is if the thesis is wrong, judged 1-10: 10 means a real floor of assets or cash, 1 means a permanent loss. This pass judged it 3 out of 10.
The clearest catalyst still ahead opens in 50 days, over a window 10 days wide.
Price is -4.0% over the last 63 trading sessions — moving against it for this long view.
3 dated claim receipts average 10 out of 10 from explicit source tiers 1, 1, 1; roles: 2 support, 1 challenge, 0 context. Roles establish claim linkage; only the stored tiers set reliability.
This confidence score of 55 out of 100 is the weighted average of the 6 ready checks above, on their 0-10 scales, adjusted to 100.
We previously believed LEU relied on DOE-backed HALEU commercialization funding plus backlog conversion. No post-review reversal was found; the reopened August 5-6 sources confirm the signed $900M award and X-energy offtake, while the 10-Q still flags funding and option risk, so conviction is unchanged and targets were repaired only for publication.
We previously believed LEU required DOE-backed HALEU funding to stay intact while backlog and centrifuge scale-up advanced. Current searches found no eligible material post-review development; the reopened Centrus Q2 release still confirms the signed $900M DOE HALEU award, $4.5B backlog, and year-end 2026 first-centrifuge expectation. Funding cadence and execution risk remain unresolved.
We previously believed LEU's de-risking rested on the signed $900M DOE HALEU contract and growing backlog, while execution and old-operation-contract funding remained risks. Reopened Aug. 5 sources confirm $176.1M Q2 revenue, the signed DOE HALEU enrichment award, $4.5B backlog, and a first centrifuge expected by year-end 2026. The 10-Q also confirms DOE does not currently intend to exercise further options under the older HALEU Operation Contract, a real caveat but not the stated invalidation because the commercial-scale $900M award remains signed.
Previously we believed Centrus remained a long-dated domestic enrichment option de-risked by the signed DOE HALEU award, but still exposed to execution and funding timing. This run searched current company releases, DOE/HALEU items, SEC-style references, and contrary execution news after the last review and found no eligible post-review development before the cutoff that removed the signed $900M award or broke the thesis. The Aug. 5 release also flags that DOE does not currently intend further options under the older HALEU Operation Contract, so the broader task-order catalyst remains unresolved rather than improved.
Previously we believed Centrus was de-risked by the DOE HALEU award and commercial offtake momentum, while still constrained by long-dated 2029 execution and capital intensity. This review found no eligible post-Aug 20 material development changing the thesis. The reopened Aug 5, 2026 Q2 release confirms the $900M DOE HALEU enrichment contract, $4.5B total backlog, and first centrifuge expected by year-end, while also reminding that DOE does not currently intend further options under the older HALEU Operation Contract. The net effect is unchanged: the new production-contract thesis is intact, but execution and funding risk remain unresolved.
Incremental de-risking since open: Centrus signed a definitive LEU/HALEU enrichment contract with X-energy on Aug 6, 2026 (with prepayments, deliveries from 2030), building on the $900M-$1.07B July DOE HALEU award and the $2.4B definitized backlog. DOE funding continues, so the invalidation trigger is dormant — but the 2029/2030 production payoff and capital intensity still dominate the risk, so this does not move conviction. Held at 6.
DOE $900M HALEU task order and $4.5B total backlog confirmed (in thesis at open). Q2 2026: revenue grew 14% to $176.1M and full-year 2026 revenue guidance raised to $450M–$500M. However, net income fell to $16.8M from $28.9M in Q2 2025 driven by a $12.8M increase in SG&A and $7.5M increase in advanced technology costs — rising costs are compressing near-term margins even as the strategic position strengthens. Stock fell 11.9% on the day results were released despite the guidance raise and DOE win, signaling market concern about cost trajectory and the long 2029 commercial production payoff. No new threat to the government-backed structural thesis and the invalidation trigger (DOE declines further HALEU funding) has not triggered, but margin compression within the investment window is a new concern that bears watching.
Centrus reported Q2 2026 results on August 5, 2026, confirming the $900M DOE HALEU enrichment contract (signed and in force) and total backlog of $4.5B ($3.0B enrichment, 80% under definitive agreements). X-energy signed a definitive LEU/HALEU supply agreement on August 6, 2026, with prepayments to support domestic enrichment capacity. Geiger Brothers has been selected as construction contractor for the Piketon plant expansion, with the first new centrifuge targeted by year-end 2026 — a tangible construction milestone. The invalidation trigger (DOE declining to fund the next HALEU phase) has not fired; the opposite has occurred.
DOE $900M HALEU enrichment contract finalized July 1, 2026 (milestone-based payments, total up to $1.07B)—invalidation trigger (DOE declining next-phase HALEU funding) has not fired. Q2 2026 unrestricted cash ~$1.9B; combined with DOE milestone payments gives ~$2.8B of build-out firepower. Total backlog at $4.5B with $2.4B LEU enrichment under definitive agreements. Centrus added to S&P SmallCap 600 effective July 14, 2026. No material adverse developments since idea open on Aug 11.
X-energy definitive LEU and HALEU supply contract with prepayments signed Aug 6, 2026 — second major commercial HALEU off-take agreement validating first-mover positioning alongside Oklo. Q2 2026 revenue $176.1M; total backlog grew to $3.0B with $2.4B under definitive agreements (80%). Geiger Brothers selected as construction contractor for Piketon plant expansion, showing active physical build-out. The $900M DOE HALEU contract (up to $1.07B) is confirmed and being executed; DOE is funding and accelerating the next phase — invalidation trigger (DOE declining next phase) has decisively NOT fired. Thesis intact with continued de-risking.
Q2 2026 results (Aug 5, 2026): revenue $176.1M (+14% YoY). Total backlog reached $4.5B ($3.7B LEU segment, $800M Technical Solutions); enrichment backlog of $3.0B is now 80% under definitive agreements ($2.4B signed), materially reducing contingency risk. New commercial HALEU off-take agreements signed with Oklo and X-Energy, including prepayments as non-dilutive capital. HALEU demo cascade completed two weeks ahead of schedule in June 2026. $900M DOE HALEU commercial contract signed July 1, 2026 (de-risking the Piketon build-out). Invalidation trigger (DOE declining HALEU program funding) definitively NOT fired. 2026 revenue guidance $450-500M.
Two positive developments since the idea was opened: (1) The $900M DOE HALEU contract was formally signed on July 1, 2026 (up to $1.07B including options), de-risking the Piketon commercial build-out as the thesis requires; (2) On August 6, 2026, Centrus signed a definitive LEU and HALEU supply agreement with X-energy — a new commercial offtake customer. The $3.0B contingent LEU/HALEU backlog and the non-dilutive government funding base are intact. Invalidation trigger (DOE declining to fund the next HALEU phase) has not fired.
Opened by the energy hunt.
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Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported — the label its release used and its consensus estimate was quoted against — and by the month that quarter ended, taken from the filer's own XBRL period boundaries. A fiscal year need not follow the calendar, so Apple's Q2 runs January to March; naming the quarter end keeps that true in both calendars, and no quarter number is ever inferred from a date. Quarterly financials beside this card names the same quarter the same way. TickerYou takes the figures from the release and its filing; every word, sign and percentage is calculated by the app from those stored numbers. A post-release reaction appears only with the stored first-close measurement stamp; otherwise the card says the window is not established and computes no divergence. EPS here is on the basis consensus quotes — adjusted for most US names — so it can legitimately differ from the GAAP figure in Quarterly financials. Rows marked [backfilled] were confirmed from archived coverage after the fact — a lower evidence tier than live capture, and labelled so.
Q2 FY2026 · Jun 2026: EPS beat the stored consensus estimate, while revenue beat the stored consensus estimate. No post-release price reaction is asserted because its stamped measurement window is not established.
A surprise shows how the release differed from expectations, not whether the business is good or the thesis is right. The price reaction shows repricing, not its cause.
Watch whether the next comparable release confirms the result; one beat or market move does not establish a durable trend.
Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · Reported Aug 5, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] The quarter delivered $176.1M revenue (+14% YoY) on the strength of a $900M DOE HALEU enrichment award; management raised full-year guidance to $450–500M revenue, grew total backlog to $4.5B through 2040, and reported adjusted net income of $38.7M — though GAAP net income fell to $16.8M YoY due to non-cash adjustments inherent to uranium enrichment accounting.
Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · Reported May 5, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Adjusted diluted EPS of $1.05 beat the $0.33 consensus sharply, driven by $17M of growth costs excluded from the adjusted figure and a 47% surge in Technical Solutions revenue; total revenue of $76.7M edged past the estimate; Centrus raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $450M–$500M and highlighted a potential $900M+ DOE HALEU award.
Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 · Reported Feb 10, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] A delayed Russian LEU shipment (pushed into 2026 by a logistics issue) compressed Q4 gross margin sharply, driving EPS well below consensus; revenue came in roughly on target; the company ended 2025 with $2.0B unrestricted cash, a freshly awarded $900M DOE HALEU contract, and issued 2026 guidance.
Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 · Reported Nov 5, 2025 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Centrus posted adjusted EPS of $0.19 against a $0.20 Zacks consensus; SWU deliveries held under long-term U.S. government contracts, HALEU demonstration at Paducah continued, and full-year guidance was reaffirmed.
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported and the month that quarter ended, through the same resolver the Earnings card beside this one uses; where no release established a fiscal label, the quarter is named by its end alone rather than by a quarter number guessed from the date. EPS is GAAP diluted, as filed, so it can legitimately differ from the adjusted figure in the Earnings card (consensus is quoted adjusted). Y/Y compares the same fiscal quarter a year earlier; a comparison that cannot be made honestly is an em-dash that says why.
Jun 2026: Revenue grew 14.0% year over year; net income fell 41.9% year over year; and net profit margin was 9.5%, down 9.2 percentage points.
Comparing the same fiscal quarter a year earlier controls for seasonality. Revenue direction and margin direction together show whether sales are translating into profit, but one quarter is evidence—not a complete thesis.
Watch whether the next comparable quarter restores margin; revenue growth with falling margin can be lower-quality growth.
| (USD) | Jun 2026 | vs last year |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $176.10 M | |
| Profit after costs | $16.80 M | |
| Profit per share | 0.77 | |
| Profit margin | 9.5% |
† derived: the fiscal year minus its three reported quarters — no 10-K reports a Q4 figure directly. For EPS this assumes per-share figures add across the year.
| Quarter | Revenue | Y/Y | Net income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | $76.70 M | $10.00 M | 13.0% | |
| Dec 2025 | $146.20 M † | $18.00 M † | 12.3% | |
| Sep 2025 | $74.90 M | $3.90 M | 5.2% | |
| Jun 2025 | $154.50 M | $28.90 M | 18.7% | |
| Mar 2025 | $73.10 M | $27.20 M | 37.2% | |
| Dec 2024 | $151.60 M † | $52.50 M † | 34.6% | |
| Sep 2024 | $57.70 M | $-5.00 M | -8.7% | |
| Jun 2024 | $189.00 M | $30.60 M | 16.2% |