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What we know about this company
Open this Idea →Broadcom Inc.
View: price may rise
our belief 8/10 · confidence score 71/100
Our longer-term business view, not a prediction for this week.
May rise over the next 3 months. Open for the simple explanation.
Why we are waiting
The latest research review is too old and needs an update.
Next check: Complete a new dated research review.
The idea was last reviewed 10 days ago. The limit is 5 days. Whether eligible Q3 results confirm AI revenue near guide and preserve the FY2027 AI revenue framing. Then update the item listed below.
Broadcom is the dominant custom AI accelerator (XPU) merchant, holding roughly 70% of the custom ASIC market and serving Google, Meta, ByteDance, and a fourth XPU customer — widely identified as OpenAI — via its 'Titan' inference chip ramping to mass production in 2026. AI semiconductor revenue grew 143% YoY to $10.8B in fiscal Q2 2026, with Q2 bookings exceeding $30B against $10.8B shipped — a ~2.8x book-to-ship ratio that provides multi-quarter revenue visibility unprecedented in semiconductors. Management guided fiscal Q3 to ~$16.0B AI revenue (>200% YoY) and ~$29.4B total (+84% YoY), full-year FY2026 AI revenue at ~$56B, and has reiterated a FY2027 AI revenue target of >$100B — backed by multi-year take-or-pay contracts with Alphabet and Meta extending through 2031 and a now six-customer XPU base. Each quarterly print has beaten and raised the AI guide, yet at ~32x forward earnings — well below slower-growing peers like Marvell (~66x) — consensus still lags the pace of XPU ramps and backlog conversion. The $30B+ bookings overhang means FY2027 revenue is not speculative: it is being manufactured now in design pipelines for chips delivering in 2026-2027. The Sept 2 Q3 report plus updated multi-year backlog and FY2027 framing is the near-term gap-closer. This is saved analyst research, not a ready conclusion.
The research view is strong at 8/10, but this Idea is still being checked. It is not a current opportunity until every required fact is complete.
View unchanged Sep 2, 2026
$361.99
last session
Next event has no confirmed date
Broadcom designs chips and sells business software. The exciting part right now is that it designs custom AI chips for Google, Meta, ByteDance and reportedly OpenAI — chips built to that one customer's needs, which those companies pay a lot for because they cannot get them anywhere else. In the last three months, the AI chip business made $10.8 billion, more than double what it made a year earlier, and management says orders in hand are worth more than $30 billion — nearly three years of shipments already spoken for. The whole company made $22.2 billion in that same three months. What has to go right: the giant customers keep spending on AI at the current pace, and the new customers actually take delivery of the chips they ordered. What could go wrong: those same giants decide they have enough AI capacity for now and slow their orders, which would end the growth story quickly. The stock is not cheap, but slower-growing rivals cost twice as much.
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Current active Idea · Record saved Aug 11, 2026 · check date unavailable. The original research wording and date checks stay available inside.
These events and risks belong to TickerYou’s current Idea.
An event can change what investors believe. A risk shows how our research could be wrong.
Watch for a company filing or announcement that gives the next event a usable date.
No eligible same-day Broadcom results source was used because date-only 2026-09-02 evidence is ineligible at this cutoff.
A company check updates what we know. It does not by itself turn this company into a current opportunity.
Computed by TickerYou from 1254 completed daily closing sessions supplied by Yahoo Finance, through Sep 10, 2026. The Sep 11, 2026 quote-session candle was excluded because a delayed feed cannot prove it was final. No company fundamentals enter this reading.
Shorter and longer price trends point in different directions, so there is no clear trend.
Price movement can help with timing and can warn when the market disagrees with our Idea. It does not tell us what the business is worth.
Watch whether the close and the 50-session average ($383.23) move to the same side of the 200-session average ($370.09).
Last closing price
$360.83
Sep 10, 2026
Average price over 20 trading days
$370.29
Close is 2.6% below this average
Average price over 50 trading days
$383.23
Close is 5.8% below this average
Average price over 200 trading days
$370.09
Close is 2.5% below this average
Recent price speed
41.4 · balanced
A 14-day speed reading; lower than 30 is low and higher than 70 is high
Is the trend speeding up?
Below signal
Shows whether the shorter trend is pulling ahead of or behind the longer one
The moving averages are simple averages over exactly 20, 50, and 200 daily trading sessions. RSI uses Wilder's 14-session smoothing; a flat series is neutral at 50. MACD uses 12- and 26-session exponential averages with a 9-session signal. A window is never shortened when history is missing. Every comparison uses the final dated daily close—not an intraday quote—so all figures share one observation boundary. A candle dated to an active delayed-quote session is excluded because it may still be changing. These are trend and momentum references, not a Buy/Sell score.
Three checks use SEC filings alone. The net-buyback check combines same-currency SEC cash flows and a compatible single-ticker SEC share-unit receipt with Yahoo Finance · delayed market quote · price session 2026-09-11 · USD. One dated deep-review judgement is marked researched; missing checks are excluded, never treated as zero.
A score requires both core checks — what the share count did and pay in stock versus revenue — plus at least one other established check. Missing core check: pay in stock, vs revenue.
A company can grow while each shareholder owns a smaller slice. Share issuance and stock pay can offset part of the business gain.
Establish the missing core check first; other unestablished checks: room left under the charter.
+1.1% between the 2025-08-29 and 2026-08-28 filing cover pages.
the two figures cover different periods, and a ratio across mismatched periods would be invented
$2.45B repurchased against $221M of new stock sold in the year through 2025-11-02 — +0.1% of market value using 10-Q cover-page count as of 2026-08-28 · sole SEC-listed ticker AVGO and Yahoo Finance · delayed market quote · price session 2026-09-11 · USD.
The deep review’s dated judgement (published Aug 13, 2026; evidence cutoff unavailable): how much of a 1% ownership slice at that review could survive through its horizon.
authorized shares are measured on 2026-08-02 while outstanding shares are measured on 2026-08-28; different dates cannot establish current headroom
review saved Aug 13, 2026 · check date unavailable
Insiders own about 1.15% of Broadcom, led by co-founder Henry Samueli with roughly 1.06% (about 50 million shares) per the 2026 proxy. Management pays employees heavily in stock — that expense is around a quarter of operating profit — and buybacks last year ($2.45 billion) no longer fully cover the shares handed out. Net share count grew about 1.2% over the past year, so your slice quietly shrinks. Broadcom has a shelf on file and can issue new shares or debt when it wants, but the balance sheet is strong and the AI business throws off enough cash that management is unlikely to sell stock to fund itself. Over a three-month to one-year horizon the dilution is small and predictable — a headwind, not a threat — and buybacks could resume outpacing stock pay if free cash keeps compounding.
A conditional model using SEC filings and a delayed-market quote from Yahoo Finance for the Sep 11, 2026 session. It is not a market forecast or analyst consensus.
The required growth rate cannot be established from compatible current inputs.
A high number means the company must grow quickly to justify today's price. A low number gives the business more room to disappoint.
Watch sales growth and operating profit. If either changes, this required-growth number can change too.
— what the price assumes could not be computed: cash is not established.
The last deep review estimated 25–45% yearly growth, but the current Idea is still being checked. We do not compare that older estimate with today's price until every required fact is complete. review saved Aug 13, 2026 · check date unavailable.
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Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Blank means it cannot be computed honestly.
Revenue grew 48.7% versus the comparable filing period, while operating margin was 48.0%.
Revenue shows whether demand is expanding, while operating and free-cash-flow margins show how much of those sales becomes profit and cash. Net cash or debt affects how resilient that result is.
Watch whether the next comparable filing confirms the revenue direction and whether operating and cash-flow margins hold or improve.
Every figure comes from an SEC filing and carries the day it was measured. Nothing here is estimated.
The filed share count increased 1.09% over roughly a year. That is dilution: each existing share represents a smaller percentage ownership slice.
A growing business can still deliver weak per-share progress when the share count grows too. The count says what happened to ownership slices, not why the company issued shares.
Watch the next filing cover page and the cash-flow and stock-compensation disclosures to see whether issuance continues and what caused it.
4.77 B
total shares when last reported · Aug 28, 2026 · 15 days ago
Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported — the label its release used and its consensus estimate was quoted against — and by the month that quarter ended, taken from the filer's own XBRL period boundaries. A fiscal year need not follow the calendar, so Apple's Q2 runs January to March; naming the quarter end keeps that true in both calendars, and no quarter number is ever inferred from a date. Quarterly financials beside this card names the same quarter the same way. TickerYou takes the figures from the release and its filing; every word, sign and percentage is calculated by the app from those stored numbers. A post-release reaction appears only with the stored first-close measurement stamp; otherwise the card says the window is not established and computes no divergence. EPS here is on the basis consensus quotes — adjusted for most US names — so it can legitimately differ from the GAAP figure in Quarterly financials. Rows marked [backfilled] were confirmed from archived coverage after the fact — a lower evidence tier than live capture, and labelled so.
Q3 FY2026 · Aug 2026: EPS beat the stored consensus estimate, while revenue beat the stored consensus estimate. The first stamped post-release close moved down 5.4%.
A surprise shows how the release differed from expectations, not whether the business is good or the thesis is right. The price reaction shows repricing, not its cause.
Watch whether the next comparable release confirms the result; one beat or market move does not establish a durable trend.
Quarter ended Aug 2, 2026 · Reported Sep 2, 2026 · post-release reaction · strong · 3.2× typical · against the result
Quarter ended May 3, 2026 · Reported Jun 3, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Slight adjusted-EPS and revenue misses were offset by AI semiconductor revenue surging 143% YoY to $10.8B, and Q3 guidance of $29.4B (up 84% YoY) with $16B in AI chip revenue was robust — but the stock fell ~6% as management held the $100B full-year AI revenue target rather than raising it.
Quarter ended Feb 1, 2026 · Reported Mar 4, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Record Q1 revenue of $19.3B grew 29% YoY led by AI semiconductor revenue of $8.4B (+106% YoY); Q2 guidance of ~$22.0B and AI chip revenue target of $10.7B came in well above the LSEG consensus of ~$20.6B, signalling accelerating hyperscaler custom-accelerator demand.
Quarter ended Nov 2, 2025 · Reported Dec 11, 2025 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] AI semiconductor revenue surged 74% YoY to drive record quarterly revenue of $18.0B, well above the company's own prior guidance of $17.4B, with Q1 FY2026 guidance of $19.1B also topping analyst expectations of ~$18.3B; adjusted EBITDA margin guided at 67%.
Quarter ended Aug 3, 2025 · Reported Sep 4, 2025 · stock move after results · not shown
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported and the month that quarter ended, through the same resolver the Earnings card beside this one uses; where no release established a fiscal label, the quarter is named by its end alone rather than by a quarter number guessed from the date. EPS is GAAP diluted, as filed, so it can legitimately differ from the adjusted figure in the Earnings card (consensus is quoted adjusted). Y/Y compares the same fiscal quarter a year earlier; a comparison that cannot be made honestly is an em-dash that says why.
Q3 FY2026 · Aug 2026: Revenue grew 85.5% year over year.
Comparing the same fiscal quarter a year earlier controls for seasonality. Revenue direction and margin direction together show whether sales are translating into profit, but one quarter is evidence—not a complete thesis.
Watch whether the next comparable quarter confirms both the sales direction and the margin direction.
Complete SEC 13F filings only. These delayed reports show filed share amounts, not a manager’s full portfolio, intent, or a proven trade.
7 of 14 recent complete filings report ordinary shares. Compared with the prior report: 1 new positions, 2 with more shares, 4 with fewer shares, and 2 that no longer report it.
A large, repeated position can support a research story, but these filings arrive late and do not show an investor’s full portfolio or reason for owning the stock.
Look for the same investor to keep a meaningful position across several reports.
No numeric score or recommendation is made from these delayed filings. They are one piece of background evidence, not a buy or sell signal.
14 current complete filings of 16 tracked managers. 2 investors have only an older filing and are left out of this current view. Current holding dates span Mar 31, 2026 to Jun 30, 2026.
The SEC’s structured data establishes the total share count but carries no count of the shares structurally excluded from ordinary trading. Control and affiliate holdings, restricted stock and locked-up shares are disclosed publicly — in proxy statements, prospectuses and 8-Ks — as prose with no tag to read them from, and have not been researched into a figure this card can pair with the total above.
Share count increased 1.09% — dilution risk: each existing share owns a smaller percentage of the company.
Both counts in full, exactly as each cover page printed them, and both bars measured from zero against the larger — so a small move looks small.
measured May 2, 2025, 16 months ago — from the 10-K filed Dec 18, 2025
Market value of shares held by non-affiliates under the SEC filing definition. This is a dollar amount, not a share count. It is never converted into one to fill the line above.
Not researched yet. Release dates, tranche sizes, the shares issued at IPO and the insider breakdown are prose in the prospectus and in 8-Ks, with no XBRL tag to read them from. They appear here once TickerYou research can quote the source clause behind each figure—never estimated in the meantime.
The full Q3 FY2026 print showed AI-led revenue strength and operating leverage lifting adjusted EPS, while the post-release reaction focused on whether the forward outlook was strong enough for an already demanding AI valuation.
[backfilled] AI semiconductor revenue hit $5.2B (+63% YoY) on custom XPU strength; Q4 guidance of $17.4B topped the $17.1B consensus, record consolidated backlog reached $110B (at least half tied to semiconductors), and adjusted EBITDA margin guidance of 67% held despite a higher-XPU mix shift.
Quarter ended May 4, 2025 · Reported Jun 5, 2025 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Broadcom posted record revenue of $15.0B (+20% YoY) with AI semiconductor revenue surging 46% YoY to $4.4B; Q3 guidance of ~$15.8B topped the $15.7B Wall Street consensus, and adjusted EBITDA margin held above 66%, signalling continued operating leverage from the VMware integration.
| (USD) | Q3 FY2026Quarter ended Aug 2026 | vs last year |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $29.59 B | |
| Profit after costs | — | — |
| Profit per share | 2.68 | |
| Profit margin | — | — |
† derived: the fiscal year minus its three reported quarters — no 10-K reports a Q4 figure directly. For EPS this assumes per-share figures add across the year.
| Quarter | Revenue | Y/Y | Net income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY2026 · May 2026 | $22.19 B | — | — | |
| Q1 FY2026 · Feb 2026 | $19.31 B | — | — | |
| Q4 FY2025 · Nov 2025 | $18.02 B † | — | — | |
| Q3 FY2025 · Aug 2025 | $15.95 B | — | — | |
| Q2 FY2025 · May 2025 | $15.00 B | — | — | |
| Feb 2025 | $14.92 B | — | — | |
| Nov 2024 | $14.05 B † | — | — | |
| Aug 2024 | $13.07 B | — | — |
AVGO is 2.8% of Tiger Global Management's disclosed portfolio ($662.60 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in all 6 quarters we can see.
AVGO is 2.0% of Bridgewater Associates's disclosed portfolio ($497.85 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in all 6 quarters we can see.
AVGO is 1.00% of ARK Investment Management's disclosed portfolio ($153.82 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in 2 consecutive quarters.
AVGO is 0.77% of Soros Fund Management's disclosed portfolio ($62.42 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in 3 consecutive quarters.
AVGO is 0.73% of Appaloosa's disclosed portfolio ($56.66 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in 1 consecutive quarter.
AVGO is 0.44% of Renaissance Technologies's disclosed portfolio ($321.02 M). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in all 6 quarters we can see.
AVGO is 0.13% of Citadel Advisors's disclosed portfolio ($1.10 B). Holdings as of Jun 30, 2026. Reported in all 2 quarters we can see.
Market-neutral / multi-strategy: Citadel often reports shares, calls, and puts at the same time. These rows show reported exposure, not a simple bullish or bearish bet.
Citadel Advisors (Ken Griffin) reports a PUT option ($2.96 B). The filing does not prove whether it is a bet or a hedge, so options never count as ordinary shares above.
Citadel Advisors (Ken Griffin) reports a CALL option ($3.78 B). The filing does not prove whether it is a bet or a hedge, so options never count as ordinary shares above.
3 newly or higher reported, 4 lower reported, 2 absent. Reported amounts only; corporate actions are not normalized.
Reported by 7 of 14 managers with a current filing; at least 0.5% of disclosed 13F value for 5.
Largest reported position: Tiger Global Management at 2.8% of disclosed 13F value ($662.60 M).
Across 6 quarters of stored filings: 18 newly or higher comparisons, 11 lower or absent, 0 unchanged, across 9 managers. Corporate actions are not normalized.
No numeric score is shown: filing comparisons are not adjusted for splits or other corporate actions, so reported changes cannot be treated as trades.
13Fs can arrive up to 45 days after quarter end. They omit short positions, cash, and securities outside the SEC's 13(f) list. Higher, lower, new, and absent describe filed share amounts, not proven purchases or sales; splits and other corporate actions are not normalized. This is context for a thesis, never a call by itself.
Append-only company checks, newest evidence first. Evidence dates come from frozen research cutoffs; older rows without a cutoff are labelled by publication time instead. Multiple checks are preserved, never silently merged into one conclusion.
No eligible same-day Broadcom results source was used because date-only 2026-09-02 evidence is ineligible at this cutoff. The 3m read is still concentrated in fiscal Q3 validation of AI semiconductor revenue and Q4 demand framing; the 1y case remains strong but dependent on durable hyperscaler custom-silicon demand.
2026-09-02 financial results reporting date and earnings call were announced by issuer investor relations.
No new five-day fundamental item changed the prior setup. The 3m read is still concentrated in the company-confirmed Sept. 2 fiscal Q3 report, especially AI semiconductor revenue versus guide and forward AI demand framing.
2026-09-02 (company-confirmed) financial results reporting date and earnings call were announced by Broadcom investor relations.
No new eligible five-day fundamental update changed the prior setup. The 3m thesis is still concentrated in the company-confirmed Sept. 2 fiscal Q3 report, especially AI semiconductor revenue versus guide and forward AI-backlog framing; 1y upside remains tied to custom silicon execution.
2026-09-02 (company-confirmed) financial results reporting date and earnings call were announced by Broadcom investor relations.
Evidence checked Aug 26, 2026 · 2 recorded assessments
No new eligible five-day fundamental update changes the setup since the prior sweep. The 3m thesis is still concentrated in the company-confirmed Sept. 2 Q3 print, especially AI semiconductor revenue and management's forward outlook.
2026-09-02 (company-confirmed) financial results reporting date and earnings call were announced by Broadcom investor relations.
Evidence checked Aug 24, 2026 · 2 recorded assessments
Broadcom still has the near-term Sept. 2 catalyst and the Apple ASIC extension is supportive, but the Marvell-Google deal remains a real competitive watch item for the custom AI silicon thesis over the 3m and 1y horizons.
Published Aug 19, 2026 · 2 recorded assessments
Two-engine story into the Sept 2 print: custom AI silicon (management guiding AI toward $100B in 2027) plus VMware software monetization. The fresh risk is Marvell's Google win denting Broadcom's custom-chip exclusivity — a genuine competitive-position headwind to watch alongside guidance.
Directly targets AVGO's competitive position — its custom-silicon relationship with Google was viewed as exclusive through 2031; a credible second-source at a key customer pressures the AI-ASIC growth narrative.
Checked Broadcom's EDGAR browse page for last-month 8-K and 10-Q filing availability before the cutoff.
Checked Broadcom's July 2026 EDGAR Form 8-K filing detail page in the filing sweep.
Checked Broadcom investor financial news releases for recent company updates before the cutoff.
Checked Broadcom's SEC-filed Form 8-K for the latest opened relevant current report in the filing sweep.
Checked Broadcom's EDGAR browse page for current report and quarterly filing availability before the cutoff.
Checked Broadcom investor news for recent eligible headlines before the cutoff.
Checked Broadcom SEC filing feed for recent Forms 4 and current reports.
Checked Broadcom Form 8-K directly on EDGAR for the Apple custom ASIC agreement disclosure.
Checked Broadcom Form 4 filing detail directly on EDGAR for recent insider-ownership filings.
Since the 2026-08-24 sweep, I found no new five-day fundamental Broadcom update. The near-term thesis remains concentrated in the company-confirmed Sept. 2 fiscal Q3 print, especially AI semiconductor revenue, XPU backlog commentary, and Apple ASIC contract durability.
2026-09-02 (company-confirmed) financial results reporting date and earnings call were announced by Broadcom investor relations.
Checked Broadcom Form 8-K directly on EDGAR for recent material contract disclosure.
Checked Broadcom financial news releases for any five-day developments before the cutoff.
Checked Broadcom confirmed fiscal Q3 2026 earnings date and call timing
Checked Broadcom recent relevant 8-K directly on EDGAR
Checked recent Broadcom competitive-position news involving Google custom AI chips
This is fundamental for Broadcom because Google has been Broadcom's main custom-chip partner, and a major Marvell-Google custom silicon agreement could alter Broadcom's competitive position or future share at a key hyperscaler.
source ↗No new deterioration since the Aug. 20 sweep, but the Marvell-Google item remains the key five-day fundamental issue. Broadcom still has the Sept. 2 catalyst and Apple ASIC extension support, while custom-silicon share risk needs monitoring.
Checked Broadcom company release confirming Q3 FY2026 earnings timing
Checked Broadcom latest relevant 8-K filing for customer agreement changes
Checked Broadcom competitive news from the last five days
This is fundamental for Broadcom because Google expanding custom-silicon work with Marvell could reduce perceived exclusivity or future share in a major AI ASIC customer relationship, even if the total market remains demand-constrained.
source ↗Product enhancement supporting VMware Cloud Foundation upsell; incremental to the software-monetization thesis but not a step-change in earnings power.
source ↗Broadcom's AI demand picture is exceptional — Q2 FY2026 revenue +48% and Q3 guided at $29.4B (+84%) — but the VMware CVE-2026-59310 active exploitation across 47 countries is a genuine enterprise-trust event that may soften VMware renewal rates near-term. The stock has pulled back ~21% from its June peak. September 2 earnings are the next major catalyst: AI XPU pipeline updates and any VMware business impact will be the key items.
Critical CVSS-9.8 directory-traversal flaw in VMware vCenter Syslog server was exploited within days of Broadcom's July 29 disclosure; 361 compromised systems confirmed across 47 countries, creating reputational risk for the VMware franchise and a potential headwind to enterprise renewal rates.
source ↗Price-action commentary; pullback attributed to the VMware security incident and broader semiconductor sector rotation, not to deterioration in underlying AI semiconductor demand.
source ↗