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Strong idea · still checking
Broadcom Inc.
Broadcom is a diversified semiconductor and infrastructure-software company.
Expected time 3 months is when we expect the main question to be answered. Full holding time 3-6 months is the longest the idea may stay open if the facts still support it.
Reviewed Sep 2, 2026
Broadcom designs chips and sells business software. The exciting part right now is that it designs custom AI chips for Google, Meta, ByteDance and reportedly OpenAI — chips built to that one customer's needs, which those companies pay a lot for because they cannot get them anywhere else. In the last three months, the AI chip business made $10.8 billion, more than double what it made a year earlier, and management says orders in hand are worth more than $30 billion — nearly three years of shipments already spoken for. The whole company made $22.2 billion in that same three months. What has to go right: the giant customers keep spending on AI at the current pace, and the new customers actually take delivery of the chips they ordered. What could go wrong: those same giants decide they have enough AI capacity for now and slow their orders, which would end the growth story quickly. The stock is not cheap, but slower-growing rivals cost twice as much.
Expected holding period: 3-6 months
These are TickerYou's own possible outcomes—not Wall Street targets or copied internet forecasts. Lower is what may happen if important facts disappoint, middle is our main working case, and higher is what may happen if things go better than expected. These are checks for the research, not promises.
We will check this set through 12 months. The expected holding period (3-6 months) is the broader time we may follow the Idea, so the two dates do not need to match. We show longer-term estimates only when the supporting business and price assumptions are written down.
Where these numbers came from. Published Aug 26, 2026 against $353.45 using a saved Yahoo Finance price as of Aug 26, 2026.
Why we updated it: Targets are issued only to repair before-publication availability. I anchored them to the review price_now and the reopened Q2/Q3 guide baseline; prior forecasts remain open and ungraded.
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Checked through Aug 26, 2026
Each source says whether it supports the idea, challenges it, or adds background. A quick no-change check may update the review date without replacing these sources.
Broadcom's SEC-filed Q2 release reported $22.187B revenue, $10.8B AI semiconductor revenue up 143% year over year, and Q3 expectations for $16.0B AI semiconductor revenue and $29.4B total revenue.
Broadcom Inc. Announces Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results and Quarterly Dividend (sec.gov)Broadcom's investor-relations notice scheduled fiscal Q3 2026 results and business outlook for September 2, 2026 after the market close, with a call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
Broadcom Inc. to Announce Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results on Wednesday, September 2, 2026 (investors.broadcom.com)Checks are shown newest first. Repeated copies are folded together on screen, while every saved record remains unchanged.
We previously believed Broadcom needed the Sept. 2 fiscal Q3 print to validate the AI semiconductor ramp. Current searches checked issuer earnings timing, guide-cut, backlog-withdrawal, competitive custom-silicon and SEC/news categories; no cutoff-eligible dated source after the Aug. 30 review changed the thesis, while same-UTC-date result pages were not used under this cutoff rule. The key unresolved item remains the Q3 AI revenue and forward AI framing.
Prior view was that Broadcom's Sept. 2 fiscal Q3 report is the live AI-ramp test. Searches for a post-review guide cut, backlog withdrawal, earnings release, or competitive break found no cutoff-eligible material development; the setup is unchanged and the unresolved item remains Q3 AI revenue versus guide.
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Broadcom is the dominant custom AI accelerator (XPU) merchant, holding roughly 70% of the custom ASIC market and serving Google, Meta, ByteDance, and a fourth XPU customer — widely identified as OpenAI — via its 'Titan' inference chip ramping to mass production in 2026. AI semiconductor revenue grew 143% YoY to $10.8B in fiscal Q2 2026, with Q2 bookings exceeding $30B against $10.8B shipped — a ~2.8x book-to-ship ratio that provides multi-quarter revenue visibility unprecedented in semiconductors. Management guided fiscal Q3 to ~$16.0B AI revenue (>200% YoY) and ~$29.4B total (+84% YoY), full-year FY2026 AI revenue at ~$56B, and has reiterated a FY2027 AI revenue target of >$100B — backed by multi-year take-or-pay contracts with Alphabet and Meta extending through 2031 and a now six-customer XPU base. Each quarterly print has beaten and raised the AI guide, yet at ~32x forward earnings — well below slower-growing peers like Marvell (~66x) — consensus still lags the pace of XPU ramps and backlog conversion. The $30B+ bookings overhang means FY2027 revenue is not speculative: it is being manufactured now in design pipelines for chips delivering in 2026-2027. The Sept 2 Q3 report plus updated multi-year backlog and FY2027 framing is the near-term gap-closer.
Checked Broadcom investor relations, SEC/news, guide-cut, backlog-withdrawal and competitive custom-silicon categories; no cutoff-eligible material change was found.
Whether eligible Q3 results confirm AI revenue near guide and preserve the FY2027 AI revenue framing.
No ready estimate is issued while checks are missing. The $455.00 research scenario remains below for context, without possible-move or sizing language.
Hyperscaler AI capex could slow or be pulled forward, cutting custom XPU and AI-networking orders and breaking the beat-and-raise cadence
Broadcom reports fiscal Q3 2026 AI semiconductor revenue materially below its ~$16.0B guidance and cuts or withdraws its multi-year XPU backlog / FY2027 AI outlook, signaling the custom-accelerator ramp is stalling.
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| 3 monthsShort-term scenario | 2026-11-26 | $310.00 | $410.00 | $465.00 | medium evidence confidence | Open window |
| 6 monthsMedium-term scenario | 2027-02-26 | $300.00 | $455.00 | $520.00 | medium evidence confidence | Open window |
| 12 monthsLong-term scenario | 2027-08-26 | $290.00 | $500.00 | $590.00 | medium evidence confidence | Open window |
These are TickerYou's possible outcomes from the latest saved research. Source strength tells you how solid the supporting information is. It is not a chance of success or a recommendation score. These ranges stay visible as research, but we hide the comparison with today’s price until every required check is complete. We check every price range against what happened when its time frame ends—including the ones we got wrong.
Kept as the original record. These do not replace the current sources above.
Three checks come from TickerYou's research review. The app calculates the other three from dated prices, events, and sources. Each check keeps its published weight on every idea; the app never changes a weight to make an idea look better.
How strongly the research engine believes the thesis is right, judged 1-10. This pass judged it 8 out of 10.
Whether the price being paid helps or hurts, judged 1-10: 10 means you are paid to take the risk, 1 means the thesis must be right and the multiple must expand. This pass judged it 6 out of 10.
How contained the damage is if the thesis is wrong, judged 1-10: 10 means a real floor of assets or cash, 1 means a permanent loss. This pass judged it 5 out of 10.
The clearest catalyst still ahead opens in 19 days, over a window 92 days wide.
Price is -6.1% over the last 63 trading sessions — moving against it for this long view.
2 dated claim receipts average 10 out of 10 from explicit source tiers 1, 1; roles: 1 support, 0 challenge, 1 context. Roles establish claim linkage; only the stored tiers set reliability.
This confidence score of 71 out of 100 is the weighted average of the 6 ready checks above, on their 0-10 scales, adjusted to 100.
We previously believed Broadcom's setup depended on the Sept. 2 fiscal Q3 print validating the AI semiconductor guide. Current searches checked company/SEC results, the dated earnings-call notice, and cut/withdrawal language; no post-review source showed the Q3 AI guide had failed or the outlook was withdrawn. The unresolved item remains the actual Sept. 2 report.
Prior belief was that Broadcom needed the Sept. 2 fiscal Q3 print to confirm the AI semiconductor ramp. Since the last review, current searches found no cutoff-eligible guide cut or Q3 preannouncement; the June 3 SEC exhibit and Aug. 3 company event notice confirm the baseline and timing. The view is confirmed, with the key unresolved question still whether Q3 AI revenue lands near the $16.0B guide.
Previously we believed Broadcom needed the Sept. 2 fiscal Q3 print to validate the AI semiconductor ramp. I found no eligible post-Aug. 24 evidence that the guide was cut or the event moved; the June 3 SEC-filed release still shows $10.8B Q2 AI semiconductor revenue and $16.0B expected Q3 AI semiconductor revenue, while the Aug. 3 release confirms the Sept. 2 report date. The thesis is confirmed but unresolved until Q3 results report.
We previously believed Broadcom's 3m long depended on the still-pending Sept. 2 fiscal Q3 report validating the custom-AI accelerator ramp and not cutting the multi-year XPU outlook. This review found no cutoff-eligible development after the Aug. 24 last review; the direct opened company release still only schedules the Q3 report and business outlook for Sept. 2, so the invalidation trigger has not yet been tested. The unresolved point is whether Q3 AI semiconductor revenue and backlog commentary meet the thesis bar.
We previously believed Broadcom’s near-term test was the Sept. 2 fiscal Q3 print against the AI and total-revenue guide. This run found no post-review Q3 result or guidance cut; the report remains scheduled, Q2 guidance still frames the hurdle, and the Marvell-Google deal remains a competitive watch item rather than proof that Broadcom’s custom-AI ramp has stalled. The invalidation trigger has not fired; the unresolved issue is the actual Q3 AI semiconductor revenue and backlog commentary.
Q3 FY2026 report confirmed for after close Sept 2, 2026; the ~$16.0B AI guide and ~$29.4B total guide (+84% YoY) stand unchanged, consensus ~$3.24 EPS. No invalidation-trigger event: the custom-XPU backlog story is intact with the print still ahead. Stock ~$362 vs $413 stamp reflects pre-earnings de-risking, not deterioration. Thesis and conviction unchanged pending the Sept 2 catalyst.
Q3 FY2026 earnings report due September 2, 2026 — not yet released. The ~$16.0B AI semiconductor revenue guide, >$30B Q2 bookings backlog, and multi-year XPU ramp timeline (FY2027 AI revenue >$100B) are all unchanged since the idea opened August 11. After the Q2 beat on June 3, shares fell 12.3% despite meeting estimates, indicating the market is carrying elevated expectations into the Q3 print rather than signaling thesis failure. No new adverse competitive announcements found regarding XPU share or hyperscaler AI capex pullback. Invalidation trigger (Q3 AI revenue materially below ~$16.0B guide plus backlog or FY2027 outlook cut) has not triggered.
Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings are scheduled for September 2, 2026 — not yet reported. The OpenAI-Broadcom custom silicon partnership has been publicly confirmed under the 'Jalapeño' codename (gigawatt-scale deployments starting H2 2026, multi-year deal), cementing the sixth XPU customer that the thesis anticipated. FY2026 AI guide of ~$56B and FY2027 >$100B are unchanged. No invalidation-trigger events: Broadcom has not reported Q3 results and has not cut or withdrawn its AI outlook. Beat-and-raise cadence was intact through Q2. Thesis heads into the September 2 catalyst without new adversarial evidence.
Q3 FY2026 earnings confirmed for Sept 2, 2026 after close. All guidance unchanged: ~$29.4B total revenue, ~$16B AI semiconductor revenue (>200% YoY), full-year AI guide $56B, FY2027 >$100B target reiterated. No new negative developments found since Aug 11 open. Invalidation trigger—AI revenue miss plus backlog withdrawal—has not fired. Thesis intact ahead of the primary catalyst print.
CEO Hock Tan reiterated FY2027 AI revenue guide of >$100B on Aug 11, 2026 (Motley Fool / Yahoo Finance). Q2 FY2026 bookings exceeded $30B against $10.8B shipped — a ~2.8x book-to-ship ratio providing multi-quarter visibility unprecedented in semiconductors. Multi-year contracts with Alphabet and Meta confirmed through 2031; six core XPU customers anchoring the franchise. FY2026 AI guide now $56B. Sept 2 Q3 report (vs $16B AI guide) remains the immediate gap-closer. Thesis intact and the FY2027 demand pipeline is more visible than the original write-up captured.
Labelled an affirm while conviction moved 6 → 7 — the stored action label and the recorded move disagree. Treat this as a changed conviction; the historical row remains visible as written.
Q2 FY2026 AI revenue confirmed at $10.8B (met guide). Q3 FY2026 earnings confirmed for Sept 2, 2026 after close; guidance of ~$16B AI revenue and ~$29.4B total stands. Full-year 2026 AI guide raised to $56B (~180% YoY), FY2027 reiterated at >$100B. Customer count has expanded to six (Anthropic added alongside Google, Meta, ByteDance, OpenAI), strengthening the multi-customer ramp thesis beyond what was written. Beat-and-raise cadence intact; Sept 2 print is the gap-closing catalyst. No negative developments found.
Broadcom Q2 FY2026 results confirmed: AI semiconductor revenue $10.8B (+143% YoY). Q3 FY2026 guidance held firm at ~$16.0B AI revenue and ~$29.4B total (+84% YoY). Full-year 2026 AI revenue guidance stands at $56B (+180% from 2025), and FY2027 AI revenue guidance reiterated at >$100B. No adverse datapoints since opening; the Sept 2 earnings report and backlog update remain the key catalyst. Invalidation trigger (material miss vs. $16B guide) has not fired.
Opened by the ai-tech hunt.
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Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported — the label its release used and its consensus estimate was quoted against — and by the month that quarter ended, taken from the filer's own XBRL period boundaries. A fiscal year need not follow the calendar, so Apple's Q2 runs January to March; naming the quarter end keeps that true in both calendars, and no quarter number is ever inferred from a date. Quarterly financials beside this card names the same quarter the same way. TickerYou takes the figures from the release and its filing; every word, sign and percentage is calculated by the app from those stored numbers. A post-release reaction appears only with the stored first-close measurement stamp; otherwise the card says the window is not established and computes no divergence. EPS here is on the basis consensus quotes — adjusted for most US names — so it can legitimately differ from the GAAP figure in Quarterly financials. Rows marked [backfilled] were confirmed from archived coverage after the fact — a lower evidence tier than live capture, and labelled so.
Q3 FY2026 · Aug 2026: EPS beat the stored consensus estimate, while revenue beat the stored consensus estimate. The first stamped post-release close moved down 5.4%.
A surprise shows how the release differed from expectations, not whether the business is good or the thesis is right. The price reaction shows repricing, not its cause.
Watch whether the next comparable release confirms the result; one beat or market move does not establish a durable trend.
Quarter ended Aug 2, 2026 · Reported Sep 2, 2026 · post-release reaction · strong · 3.2× typical · against the result
Quarter ended May 3, 2026 · Reported Jun 3, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Slight adjusted-EPS and revenue misses were offset by AI semiconductor revenue surging 143% YoY to $10.8B, and Q3 guidance of $29.4B (up 84% YoY) with $16B in AI chip revenue was robust — but the stock fell ~6% as management held the $100B full-year AI revenue target rather than raising it.
Quarter ended Feb 1, 2026 · Reported Mar 4, 2026 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Record Q1 revenue of $19.3B grew 29% YoY led by AI semiconductor revenue of $8.4B (+106% YoY); Q2 guidance of ~$22.0B and AI chip revenue target of $10.7B came in well above the LSEG consensus of ~$20.6B, signalling accelerating hyperscaler custom-accelerator demand.
Quarter ended Nov 2, 2025 · Reported Dec 11, 2025 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] AI semiconductor revenue surged 74% YoY to drive record quarterly revenue of $18.0B, well above the company's own prior guidance of $17.4B, with Q1 FY2026 guidance of $19.1B also topping analyst expectations of ~$18.3B; adjusted EBITDA margin guided at 67%.
Quarter ended Aug 3, 2025 · Reported Sep 4, 2025 · stock move after results · not shown
Computed from SEC filings — never model output. Each quarter is named by the fiscal quarter the company itself reported and the month that quarter ended, through the same resolver the Earnings card beside this one uses; where no release established a fiscal label, the quarter is named by its end alone rather than by a quarter number guessed from the date. EPS is GAAP diluted, as filed, so it can legitimately differ from the adjusted figure in the Earnings card (consensus is quoted adjusted). Y/Y compares the same fiscal quarter a year earlier; a comparison that cannot be made honestly is an em-dash that says why.
Aug 2026: Revenue grew 85.5% year over year.
Comparing the same fiscal quarter a year earlier controls for seasonality. Revenue direction and margin direction together show whether sales are translating into profit, but one quarter is evidence—not a complete thesis.
Watch whether the next comparable quarter confirms both the sales direction and the margin direction.
The full Q3 FY2026 print showed AI-led revenue strength and operating leverage lifting adjusted EPS, while the post-release reaction focused on whether the forward outlook was strong enough for an already demanding AI valuation.
[backfilled] AI semiconductor revenue hit $5.2B (+63% YoY) on custom XPU strength; Q4 guidance of $17.4B topped the $17.1B consensus, record consolidated backlog reached $110B (at least half tied to semiconductors), and adjusted EBITDA margin guidance of 67% held despite a higher-XPU mix shift.
Quarter ended May 4, 2025 · Reported Jun 5, 2025 · stock move after results · not shown
[backfilled] Broadcom posted record revenue of $15.0B (+20% YoY) with AI semiconductor revenue surging 46% YoY to $4.4B; Q3 guidance of ~$15.8B topped the $15.7B Wall Street consensus, and adjusted EBITDA margin held above 66%, signalling continued operating leverage from the VMware integration.
| (USD) | Aug 2026 | vs last year |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $29.59 B | |
| Profit after costs | — | — |
| Profit per share | 2.68 | |
| Profit margin | — | — |
† derived: the fiscal year minus its three reported quarters — no 10-K reports a Q4 figure directly. For EPS this assumes per-share figures add across the year.
| Quarter | Revenue | Y/Y | Net income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $22.19 B | — | — | |
| Feb 2026 | $19.31 B | — | — | |
| Nov 2025 | $18.02 B † | — | — | |
| Aug 2025 | $15.95 B | — | — | |
| May 2025 | $15.00 B | — | — | |
| Feb 2025 | $14.92 B | — | — | |
| Nov 2024 | $14.05 B † | — | — | |
| Aug 2024 | $13.07 B | — | — |